Back on Monday, I introduced my new “Balancing the Market” series with catchers. To start off, I wasn’t so sure of the concept and first base isn’t going to make that go away, but I have a feeling things will pick up as we move around the diamond. For now, the format will remain the same. Next up is first baseman, and this is going to be short.

Trade Market

No one really has a spare first baseman that can make an impact in 2008 for someone else, so there’s not really much of a market here. The closest players I can find are Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson. Johnson needs to prove he’s healthy and can still produce, Teixeira would have to see his team fall out of contention, and Sexson would have to see his team fall out of contention and prove he can still produce. Check back in July; there might be a few first basemen on the trade market then.

Contract Extensions

Contracts expiring at the end of the season include Teixeira, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado ($16M option with a $4M buyout). Teixeira is the only one worth trying to extend before the season.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard stand out as players in their pre-free agency years that are worth re-signing. Both players have four years before free agency, but remember that Howard is already 28. Given his age, Howard is worth a 3-year extension with an extra club option year (pre-FA arbitration is still an option if the team declines). On the other hand, Fielder is only 23. In an attempt to lock up his peak years, I’d wait until next year to discuss an extension.

Recap

For this short of an article, do we even need a recap? Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson could all make their way to the trade block this season. In the meantime, the Braves should try to sign Teixeira to an extension, while the Phillies should try to lock up Howard’s arbitration years. If the Brewers are confident that Fielder will be a force for years to come, they could work out a deal now, but I’d rather wait until next offseason to give him that extension – give him one more year to prove he’s worth the long-term deal.

Milwaukee's highly touted young position players shined through this year. They weren't able to hold onto a playoff spot, but this team isn't going away. Most of their young talent will be Brewers for at least three more seasons.

Strengths

The Brewers' number on strength is the young talent that is starting to leave their mark on the NL. Early in the year, it was Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy leading the way. After Hardy cooled off, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart joined Fielder at the head of the pack, and ever since his return from a minor league demotion, Rickie Weeks has been hitting the cover off the ball. Their infield looks incredibly strong going forward even if Braun might be forced to the outfield due his faulty defense. His bat more than makes up for his defensive miscues as he'#### .325/.370/.639 and put himself at the front of the rookie class. Across the diamond, Fielder has been mentioned in the NL MVP race, though his chances are seriously diminished with his team out of the playoff race. At second base, Weeks was demoted to the minors after a disappointing July where he only hit .125/.279/.143 and was at .212/.330/.363 overall. After 6 games of hitting .455/.571/.682 at AAA Nashville, Weeks returned to the majors and has hit .277/.447/.553 in his time back and improved his overall line to a respectable .235/.375.430. Weeks seems to have turned things around and could be back on his way to the stardom he was expected to reach.

Out in right field, Corey Hart finally convinced Ned Yost that he deserves to play everyday at the end of May. In his time in right field, Hart has played very well defensively and hit .294/.352/.529 on the season. One quality that Hart brings to the table that fans don't expect from a 6'6 guy is speed. He's been successful on 23 steals in 30 attempts. I'm not a big fan of the steal as a weapon, but it does indicate that Hart has a well-rounded set of tools to work with.

Another one of the Brewers' strong suits is the rotation. Yost has had plenty of options to turn into the rotation even if some of them have had their problems. The staff ace is Ben Sheets, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few seasons, which is one of the key qualities teams look for in a staff ace. Lucky for the Brewers, they have a very strong #2 going forward in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was inserted in the rotation when Sheets got hurt and hasn't looked back. Gallardo has a 3.67 ERA over 110.1 innings this season and should be a lock for the 2008 rotation. With Jeff Suppan being his league-average self, he's a good choice as a team's #3 starter. With the remaining two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will have to choose from a group of Chris Capuano, David Bush, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, which isn't a bad group to choose from. Capuano had two good seasons in 2005 and 2006 (~4.00 ERA over 220 innings), but he has not had the same success this year with his ERA ballooning to 5.09, pushing him to the bullpen for a stretch and limiting him to 145 innings this year. On the other end of the major league service time spectrum, Parra enjoyed a tremendous amount of success this year. In one of his rare healthy seasons (although he made an appearance on the DL, it classifies as healthy for him), Parra dominated AA (2.68 ERA over 80.2 innings) and then AAA (1.73 ERA over 26 innings) before getting a call-up to the bullpen. During his time in the majors, he has made two starts (both quality starts) and thrown 14 innings out of the bullpen, accumulating a 3.76 ERA. It shouldn't be too hard to find two quality starters out of that group of five.

Concerns (changed from Weaknesses)

The Brewers' left field situation has been a convoluted mess as nine different players have seen time out there. Going into next year, their viable options are Geoff Jenkins ($9M team option), Kevin Mench (due arbitration), Gabe Gross, or a free agent. In 2007, the Brewers tried using a platoon, which worked to a certain degree of success, and they could opt to go that route for one more year. Kevin Mench crushed lefties to the tune of .316/.345/.561, and Jenkins hit righties at a .264/.328/.481 clip. Is Jenkins's left-handed half of a platoon worth the $9M he'd be owed if the team picked up his option or will they give him the $0.5M buyout? To put that into context, Gabe Gross his .246/.328/.455 against righties. If they cut ties with Jenkins, Gross isn't much of a drop-off. He gets on base at the same rate with basically the same amount of power.

Another option would be to venture into the free agent market, but the options are pretty limited. Keeping mind the fact that 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta could be up as early as midseason 2008 if everything goes right, the Brewers would only be looking for a short-term filler at the position. Using this knowledge while perusing the available options, I found Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton. Bonds isn't a very good fit for the Brewers, so we'll cross him off, which leaves Lofton. Lofton is getting up there in age and could choose retirement (I haven't heard anything on that front), but he fits the Brewers need. Against righties this year, Lofton has hit .315/.387/.454 and would bring that veteran element they would lose with Jenkins's departure.

The other concern for the Brewers is Francisco Cordero's free agency. If they are unable to re-sign him, they will most likely have to turn back to Derrick Turnbow as their closer. After an All-Star 2005 in which he had a 1.74 ERA over 67.1 innings, he had a terrible 2006. His 6.87 ERA that year prompted the acquisition of Cordero in the first place. This year, he has a more respectable 4.63 ERA over 68 innings, but that isn't what you'd like from your #1 option in the bullpen. Cordero should be the Brewers' #1 priority heading into the offseason. The only available alternatives I could think of were Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood.

Overall

Heading into 2008, the Brewers need to resolve their bullpen and left field situations. It is rare for me to say this, but their bullpen might be the bigger problem. Given these two concerns, it is pretty easy to say that the Brewers will be at the top of the NL Central for the foreseeable future fighting it out with the Cubs.

Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.

Catcher
*Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

First Base
*Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals

Second Base
*Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Third Base
*Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
David Wright, New York Mets
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Shortstop
*Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves

Outfield
*Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
*Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
*Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

Starting Pitchers
*Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Chris Young, San Diego Padres
John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
John Maine, New York Mets

Relief Pitchers
Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
Billy Wagner, New York Mets

Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule
Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
3B Chipper Jones
SS Hanley Ramirez
SS Edgar Renteria
OF Hunter Pence
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Chris Young
SP Ian Snell
SP Derek Lowe
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Maine

There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.

All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.

Final Vote
Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.