The Nationals have been discussing a contract extension with Cristian Guzman. This is similar to what they did last July when they signed Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young to extensions. Belliard is making $3.5M combined for 2008 and 2009, and Young is making $10M combined for two years with a $6M team option for 2010. The Guzman extension is said to be another two year extension, but why are the Nationals so concerned with locking up mediocre players? Are Belliard, Guzman, or Young going to be a part of the next great Nationals team? Guzman is 30 years old, and he’s the youngest of the trio. These three (well, potentially three) contracts seem like a giant waste of money for a last-place team that doesn’t seem likely to get out of last place for the duration of the contracts.

That got me thinking. Just how much money are the Nationals wasting on signing mediocre guys that aren’t going to be a part of the next contender in Washington? I listed the 2008 contract amount for players that fit that description.

Paul Lo Duca - $5M
Dmitri Young - $5M
Felipe Lopez - $4.9M
Cristian Guzman - $4.2M
Luis Ayala - $1.7M
Ronnie Belliard - $1.6M
Jesus Colome - $1.25M
Johnny Estrada - $1.25M
Aaron Boone - $1M
Willie Harris - $0.8M

That’s a total of $26.7M in what I’d call wasted money. That’s more wasted money than the Marlins pay their whole team - a team that is 14.5 games ahead of the Nationals. What are the Nationals trying to prove with these contracts? If they’re trying to show the fans that they’re “trying” to contend by spending money, they should ask themselves one question. Do they think the fans are stupid enough to mistake this waste of money as an act of trying?

Sitting 12 games back in the division and 14 games back in the wild card, the Washington Nationals should be sellers in this year’s trade market. Given their current roster and farm system, this is going to be a long rebuild. They could always thank Omar Minaya for that, although there were thoughts that the organization wouldn’t even exist the year after that trade. I’m going to set the target date for contention at 2011. Let’s run down the roster and see who should stay and who should go.

Core to Build Around

C Jesus Flores, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, LF Elijah Dukes, CF Lastings Milledge

Zimmerman’s last year under team control is 2011, so he’s a contract extension candidate a couple of years down the road. As a Rule 5 pick a year ago, Flores has five more years under team control while Dukes and Milledge are under team control through 2013. Even better, all four players are only 23 years old.

Possible Trade Chips

C Paul Lo Duca, 1B Dmitri Young, SS Cristian Guzman, RP Jon Rauch, RP Saul Rivera

Jon Rauch might seem like a strange name here, but he is eligible for free agency following the 2010 season. Given how outstanding Rauch has been this year filling in at closer and his age (29), his value is probably at its peak. Combined with the typical year-to-year volatility of RPs, now would be the right time to pull the trigger on a Jon Rauch trade.

Possible Trade Chips if They Can Prove They're Healthy and Productive

1B Nick Johnson, RF Austin Kearns, RP Chad Cordero

All three players should be back before the trade deadline. Hopefully, they can be productive enough to garner interest from another team. If not, the Nationals can always wait until the offseason or next season’s trade deadline to trade Johnson, Kearns, or Cordero as all three are signed through 2009.

I'm sure Mets' fans don't want to even think about baseball right now, but with their elimination from the playoffs today, I'm going to take a look at 2008 and beyond for the organization. As Nate Silver wrote earlier this week, the 2007 New York Mets have completed the 2nd worst collapse in baseball history. Back on September 13, the Mets had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and yet today, they were eliminated from contention.

Strengths

You can't talk about a New York team without talking about the great players on the left side of their infield. Whether it is Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter or David Wright and Jose Reyes, New Yorkers are spoiled with greatness on the left side. In their first years of their extensions signed last August, Wright and Reyes have hit .325/.417/.548 and .283/.356/.425 while combining for 112 stolen bases in 138 attempts.This is an extreme example of what internal development can provide you on the cheap. Did you know that Wright was selected with a compensatory pick from the Colorado Rockies-Mike Hampton signing?

Out in the outfield, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and Lastings Milledge returning for sure, and they could be joined by Moises Alou, depending on the Mets picking up his option and Alou not retiring. Milledge doesn't have an impressive line for a right fielder, but a 22 year old hitting .272/.341/.446 in his rookie season is pretty good. Granted, it was only 184 at bats, but it is a good showing nonetheless. With Shawn Green on his way out (unless the Mets want to pay him an extra $8M [$10M option - $2M buyout]), Milledge should be given the everyday right field job. Beltran always seems to have nagging injuries, but he has consistently taken the field during his career with 140+ games since 2000. After a career year in 2006, Beltran still hit .275/.352/.525 this season while playing a good center field. Over in right field, Moises Alou might be suiting up for his final season (if it hasn't already occurred). He has not managed to play more than 100 games either of the last two years, but he has been successful when he has played. His batting average was slightly inflated this year, but a return to his career line of .303/.369/.517 doesn't seem out of line (he's been above each of those marks at least twice out of the last three years) if he stays healthy. Since you can't expect Alou to stay on the field all year, a good fourth outfielder is necessary, and Endy Chavez can fill that role. He will never have another year like 2006, but he can be a useful fill-in for Alou when Moises needs rest or time on the DL.

The pitching rotation has shown that it provides quality innings when healthy, but it has rarely been completely healthy. When you have a 35 year old Pedro Martinez and 41 year old Orlando Hernandez, you can count on one of them needing time off at some point during the season. Adding to the team's age on the mound, 41 year old Tom Glavine has a player option for 2008. He is due $3M; if he chooses to come back for another season, he'll make another $10M. Despite Glavine's atrocious final outing this year, the Mets (and eventually Mets' fans will come back around) would like to have him back for another year. For the last two spots in the rotation, John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown that they can be productive major league starters. Maine had a 3.91 ERA over 191 innings, and Perez had a 3.56 ERA over 177 innings. Perez had a great season back in 2004 (2.98 ERA, 196 IP) before completing falling apart the last two seasons (5.85 and 6.55 ERAs). If he and pitching coach Rick Peterson can keep his mechanics together, he should continue to be a quality #3-type pitcher.

Coming out of the bullpen, the Mets had two good left-handed relievers: Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano. Wagner struggled down the stretch, but at the end of the year, he still had a 2.63 ERA over 68.1 innings. Pitching in front of Wagner in games, Feliciano managed a 3.11 ERA over 63.2 innings. This is a good start to a bullpen, but the Mets need to find the right-handed help for a full set.

Concerns

At catcher, both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro will be free agents. If the Mets are unable to bring either (or both) of them back, there are some options available. This offseason's free agent catcher class includes Michael Barrett, Castro, Jason Kendall, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, today's interim Yankee manager Jorge Posada, and Yorvit Torrealba. Obviously, Posada is the #1 option, but it would be hard for him to leave the Yankees and even harder to join the cross-town Mets. Their best option is probably one of their own, but not the one they've been starting. Ramon Castro is an okay catcher defensively, but he is coming off his best season with the bat. He hit .293/.340/.571 in 140 AB this season. Over the last three years, he has hit .257/.326/.463, which is pretty good for a catcher. However, if he hasn't been playing over Lo Duca and his .273/.312/.378 line, the Mets must have had a reason, which leads me to believe that he's also not a target for the starting spot. If you're not going to have a catcher under contract going into the offseason, this might be the best time to do so. Even if there is a lack of great options, at least there are options. If the Tigers buy out Ivan Rodriguez's contract, he would just add to the class.

Carlos Delgado declined greatly this season; he only hit .258/.332/.448. This could just be a sign that his decline phase has really kicked in at 35, or it could be a sign that he wasn't fully healthy coming off his surgeries in the offseason. Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome October 23 and surgery on his left elbow October 30 to correct for tennis elbow. If he hadn't fully recovered, then a healthy offseason would be good for him going into 2008. Unfortunately, that won't happen as he was hit by a pitch today that fractured a bone in his left hand. Hopefully, Delgado can rebound in 2008.

Midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is a free agent this offseason, and the Mets will need to replace him at second base. The starter before Castillo, Jose Valentin, is recovering from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and the Mets have a $4.3M option for 2008. At 37 and coming off this surgery, I can't see the Mets going into 2008 with him penciled in at second. Their options include Castillo, Valentin, Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kazuo Matsui. I'm sure that the Mets don't want to revisit the whole Kaz Matsui experience, but will they pursue another Japanese infielder in Iguchi?

To complement the left-handed relievers mentioned above, the Mets need to improve the right-handed side. Jorge Sosa was moved to the bullpen after time spent in the rotation this year, but he might need to fill in for the injury-prone starters from time to time. Rookie Joe Smith had a great start to the year by throwing 14 scoreless innings in April, but he has struggled at times this year. He could re-establish himself as a viable option. Another option is the rehabbing Duaner Sanchez. Sanchez missed all of 2007 after shoulder surgery. He had a 2.60 ERA in 2006 before missing the last two months and the playoffs with an earlier shoulder injury. If he can return to that form, the Mets' problem is fixed, but that's a big if.

Overall

The Mets have quite a few concerns to deal with this offseason for an 88 win team, but they shouldn't be hard for Omar Minaya to fix. The Mets should be contenders for the NL East crown again in 2008, and with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they should be contenders for quite a while.

We're back with another shot at the fantasy positional rankings, starting up again with catchers. I looked at my past leagues to find that it takes about 18 runs, 7 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, and .002 points in batting average to move a spot in each category. For catchers, the replacement level is updated to 57 runs, 14 home runs, 60 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a .278 batting average.

First Tier
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer tops the list with a huge advantage in runs and batting average while being above average in RBI and SB.

Second Tier
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
McCann broke out last year, displaying big power numbers for a catcher. He should be good for an advantage in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

Third Tier
3. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Martinez doesn't quite keep up with McCann as he hits for a lower average with fewer home runs.

Fourth Tier
4. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
5. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
After looking at the numbers, I've decided that I was ranking Barrett much too low and have bumped up to fifth. While Barrett was having a great season, Johjima proved that he was able to come from Japan and produce as they both provide a good supply of runs, RBI, and AVG.

Fifth Tier
6. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Hernandez and Rodriguez will produce an average number of runs and RBI. But while Hernandez gives slightly more home runs, the difference is offset by Pudge's ability to steal bases and hit for average.

Sixth Tier
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Mike Piazza, Oakland Athletics
10. Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh Pirates

All five of these guys are very close to replacement level. While Varitek might as well take the title Replacement Fantasy Catcher as he is at replacement level across the board, the other four have advantages and disadvantages that should be considered if you are choosing between them. Each of them has some advantages: Posada - R, RBI; Piazza - HR, RBI; Martin - R, SB; and Paulino - AVG. These advantages are offset by their weaknesses: Posada - AVG; Piazza - R, AVG; Martin - HR, RBI; and Paulino - HR. All things considered, these five catchers have similar value in your typical fantasy league.

Seventh Tier
13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
14. Miguel Olivo, Florida Marlins
15. Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets
16. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Pierzynski is just slightly below the Varitek (replacement) level across the board. Olivo's extra stolen bases are severely offset by his low batting average, Lo Duca's lack of power places him in this category, and Molina's plodding on the basepaths limits his run scoring ability. These limitations drops these four guys into the top of the list of replacement players.

---

That's the initial list. Again, I'll take any comments, complains, suggestions, etc. into consideration for a future revision of the list.