Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one piece.

Impact Outfielders to be Traded

Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million, which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be looking to trade him.

Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.

Impact Outfielder to be Signed

Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign him and be a better team on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does, no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.

Contenders Needing a Corner Outfielder

The Indians are going through spring training with David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners. When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at .287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of .300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t, which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay atop the AL Central.

Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.

Just Play the Youngsters Already

I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here, but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the 1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him on the bench.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell. The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.

I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade, but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t know if Votto can play the outfield.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.

Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Recap

The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

After a tremendous comeback to win the NL East, the Phillies were run over by the streaking Colorado Rockies. To their credit, they have quickly turned to offseason mode by re-signing Charlie Manuel as manager and buying out the options on Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez’s contracts. With several holes to fill, Pat Gillick has his hands full going into 2008.

Strength

Three-fourths of the infield is the easiest strength to spot in Philadelphia. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the club could keep plugging them in at first, second, and short through 2011 without even having to consider a long-term contract extension. Following that season, Howard will qualify for free agency for the first time, and Rollins’s contract will end (assuming the Phillies pick up his 2011 option at $8.5M). To balance out the offense, they’ll once again be joined by Pat Burrell out in left field. Despite his bashing by fans and media, Burrell has been consistently good the last three seasons. His OBP has been between .388 and .400, and his SLG has been between .502 and .504 over that period.

Playoff teams usually have an ace that leads the way on the pitching rubber, and the Phillies had that guy when Cole Hamels was healthy. Hamels pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA. He was joined in the rotation at the beginning of the season by current, and future, closer Brett Myers. Myers pitched poorly in his three starts to begin the year, accumulating a 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings, but can you really come to any conclusions over just three starts? The Phillies decided that they needed to fix their bullpen, so Myers moved to the pen. When Tom Gordon went down, Myers stepped into the closer’s role and pitched well. Since his conversion to relief work, Myers threw 53.1 innings and gave up only 17 earned runs for a 2.87 ERA. He did so while striking out 10.8 batters, walking 3.0, and giving up 0.7 HR per nine innings, which works out to a 2.79 FIP (nicely fits his actual ERA).

Concerns

Aaron Rowand is yet another data point for the idea that players perform better in contract years. Rowand beat his career averages (.286/.343/.462) in every single category by hitting .309/.374/.515. He is well-regarded for his defense as well. He enters the market along with fellow center fielders Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron. If the Phillies are unwilling to pony up the cash for one of the players, they could look internally. Shane Victorino is returning as are Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Either Victorino or Bourn could handle center field with the other handling right field against righties. Against lefties, Manuel should try to get Jayson Werth as many at bats as possible. Werth hit .375/.467/.591 against lefties this year and has hit them at a rate of .284/.378/.486 over his career.

The Phillies’ main concern is the pitching staff. In the rotation, Hamels will be joined by Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Moyer will be 45, Kendrick only struck out 49 guys in 121 major league innings, and Eaton gave up 30 HR and 71 walks in his 161.2 innings this season. All three are question marks, and there’s still one spot left to fill. Their departing free agent Kyle Lohse is quite possibly the best option on that particular market. The Phillies will need to turn to the trade market to address this need, but I’m not sure what they’ll be using to acquire other team’s talent. There isn’t much top-level talent in the system. Phillies’ management will need to get creative.

After (or before) the rotation gets fixed, Gillick will have to upgrade the bullpen. Former closer Tom Gordon will be back as will Ryan Madson. Madson strained his shoulder in late July, and it was rumored that he could’ve returned had the Phillies advanced to the NLCS. Other than those two and Brett Myers, there isn’t much good left to talk about returning from the 2007 pen. J.C. Romero is a free agent and has expressed a desire to return, but it’s questionable if his smoke and mirrors routine (1.24 K/BB in Philadelphia) will continue to fool hitters.

Overall

The Phillies have some work to do if they want to return to the top of the division, but so do the other NL East teams. With at least four years of their three great infielders and ace pitcher, the Phillies are positioned to be contenders for a while, but they need to fix their massive holes because they aren’t the only team positioned well in the NL East.