As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.

Trade Market

One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts. Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due $6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts and Ellis should be on their ways out.

As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year, $15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had 70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.

The next tier of teams that should be interested in upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years. Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.

The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart. If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third. One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.

Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot (assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa, Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their ’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.

Contract Extensions

Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At 30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.

When looking at young second baseman worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration, so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005 before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club. Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before awarding him with a big-time contract.

Recap

Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree. The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks.

Is there anything more revealing about the current state of the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding bullpen to finish 90-72.

Strengths

 That young, up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually, when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle, Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys, Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with young, inexpensive talent.

In addition to the young players that graduated to the major leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008. Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity and contract status could bring back something valuable.

That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal, and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M ($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season), Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and .270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.

All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes, Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.

Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in 236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61 appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents for another five seasons.

Concerns

Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb, Johnson, Davis, and Owings.

If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out 38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of 2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his major league problems in 2008.

Overall

Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division should be fun to watch for a while.

Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.

Catcher
*Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

First Base
*Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals

Second Base
*Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Third Base
*Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
David Wright, New York Mets
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Shortstop
*Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves

Outfield
*Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
*Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
*Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

Starting Pitchers
*Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Chris Young, San Diego Padres
John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
John Maine, New York Mets

Relief Pitchers
Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
Billy Wagner, New York Mets

Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule
Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
3B Chipper Jones
SS Hanley Ramirez
SS Edgar Renteria
OF Hunter Pence
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Chris Young
SP Ian Snell
SP Derek Lowe
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Maine

There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.

All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.

Final Vote
Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.