San Diego Padres – C

Released OF Jim Edmonds

Acquired RHP Chad Reineke for LHP Randy Wolf

Due to their no-trade clauses, the Padres have been unable to trade either Greg Maddux or Brian Giles. You could also argue that they could have tried to move Trevor Hoffman, but with his 10-and-5 rights, he could have also vetoed any trade. Other than trading Wolf for what they could, their hands were basically tied.

 

Philadelphia Phillies – B-

Acquired RHP Joe Blanton for IF Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matthew Spencer

As one of the few teams I did the Buyer or Seller series on a month ago, I said that the Phillies needed to acquire a starting pitcher, which is precisely what they did. If Brett Myers can keep doing what he has since returning to the majors, the Phillies are a team without any large holes. They are ready to battle the Mets down to the wire in the NL East.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates – A-

Acquired RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, and Ross Ohlendorf and OF Jose Tabata for OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte

Acquired 3B Andy LaRoche, OF Brandon Moss, and RHPs Bryan Morris and Craig Hansen for OF Jason Bay

It’s amazing what happens when an organization decides to set a plan and actually sticks to it. It took the Pirates 15 years to bring in a management team that gets it, but better late than never I guess. The Pirates have finally stopped bringing in mediocre players to get them a small step closer to .500. Instead, they’re going headfirst into rebuilding mode. It’s still going to be several years until they start to see the fruits of their labor, but at least they’re finally moving in the right direction.

 

Cincinnati Reds – D+

Acquired RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar for OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million

As surprised as I am by the lack of interest in Adam Dunn, I am equally surprised that the Reds found a taker for Griffey. Of course, they’re still paying half his contract and didn’t really get much in return, but they still found a taker. It was disappointing that they weren’t able to move some of the smaller pieces, such as David Weathers, Josh Fogg, or Jeremy Affeldt, but the offers probably weren’t too impressive either.

 

Colorado Rockies – D-

Claimed RHP Livan Hernandez off waivers

It seems that the Rockies believed they could repeat their 21-1 streak from 2007 because they decided to not trade Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. In addition, they were unable to trade Yorvit Torrealba, which is basically due justice after they made the mistake of re-signing him in the offseason. At 8 GB, it is very unlikely that the Rockies will climb back into the division race (BP’s Postseason Odds gives the Rockies a 2.4% chance), and they should have used this opportunity to at least move Fuentes. The claiming of Livan Hernandez is impossible for me to understand. After he posted a 5.48 ERA with Minnesota, what makes them think he’ll be any better in Colorado?

I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the first 11 teams (by team name).

Houston Astros – D

Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke

Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick

I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline, and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among Astros transactions for some time.

 

Atlanta Braves – B-

Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark Teixeira

This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion. While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either. While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find a taker for Mark Kotsay.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – A

Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL

Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond

As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.

 

St. Louis Cardinals – D

While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700 at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.

 

Chicago Cubs – A

Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson

Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks – C

Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension

Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner

Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio

Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with a $15.5 million option for 2013

Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the $48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense. Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not delay the decision as long as possible?

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – I

Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan

Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche and RHP Bryan Morris

With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan, the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36 with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.

Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In 2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo than Blake and Ramirez.

 

San Francisco Giants – C

The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August. Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s going to be a while before there is.

 

Florida Marlins – C+

Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez

While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.

 

New York Mets – D+

Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner outfielder.

 

Washington Nationals – D-

Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension

Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch

Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada

I already covered the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal. Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?

In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch, the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you scratching your head.

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I should have the last five teams up by the end of the weekend.

The Houston Astros are 12 GB of the Cubs in the division and 10 GB of the Cardinals in the Wild Card. To make matters worse, the Astros would have to pass four teams to claim the division and six teams to claim the Wild Card. They’ve been outscored on the season by 49 runs, and they’ve actually outperformed their underlying metrics. According to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus, their chances of making the playoffs are less than one percent. So why are they trying to improve their 2008 team?

Sometimes, teams make decisions that defy logic. While it’s possible that the Astros can come back and make the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely. For that reason, the Astros would be better off playing for 2009, or are they?

Ages 27, 28, and 29 are generally considered players’ prime years. On the Astros’ current roster, there are only five guys in their pre-prime years: Wesley Wright, J.R. Towles, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Oscar Villarreal. If the Astros keep their current roster around for 2009, they can be expected to be even worse than they are in 2008. To compete in 2009, they’d probably have to bring in a new outfielder to replace Bourn and a couple of starting pitchers. With that being unlikely, that leaves the Astros with two options: play for 2008 or Billy Beane the roster.

In situations like this, I’d rather see the team follow in the footsteps of Billy Beane and blow up the roster, but that’s not completely possible. Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee have full no-trade clauses through 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. With those no-trade clauses, the Astros can’t enter complete rebuilding mode. Since they’re unlikely to contend in 2008 or 2009 and they can’t enter rebuilding mode, the Astros are in no man’s land. So what are the Astros to do?

In my opinion, they should sell off what they can: infielders Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, Kazuo Matsui, and Mark Loretta and pitchers Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail. Once those players go, you might be able to convince Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee to waive their no-trade clauses. This is the only way I see the Astros reviving their franchise and building something special.

In the past week, significant changes have happened in the NL Central. The Brewers struck first on Monday by acquiring CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and PTBNL. The Cubs struck back on Tuesday by acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and Josh Donaldson. While the effect of the trades on the participating teams has been widely covered, the effect they have on the rest of the league gets little coverage. So just how has it affected the rest of the National League? I’ll try to answer that today.

I will be using the Postseason Odds Report available at Baseball Prospectus as a starting point. I will also consider the Sabathia trade to add 3 wins to the Brewers and the Harden/Gaudin trade to add 2 wins to the Cubs.

NL East and West Division Championships

I have not looked closely at the Cubs and Brewers individual schedules to see how they would directly affect other teams’ projected records, so the chances of each team in the other divisions winning their division championships goes unaffected.

NL Central Division Championship

With only the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals having better than 1% chances of winning the Central before the trades, the trades do not have a large effect on the Reds, Pirates, or Astros. As for the Cubs, the Sabathia trade decreases their chances while the Harden trade increases them. I estimate the net effect being about zero. On the other hand, the Brewers’ chances of winning the division have increased about 3% to 15%. That, of course, means that the Cardinals’ chances have dropped the same 3% about 5%, but there is a much larger effect in the Wild Card race.

NL Wild Card

Before the trades, the NL Wild Card had a strong probability of coming out of the NL Central with a 75% chance of that occurring. So that means that once again, the Cardinals were the bystander most affected by the trades. By my estimation, the trades have bumped up the Cubs 2% to 15% and the Brewers 13% to 47%. That increase of 15% has to come from somewhere. Since there was only 0.6% chance of the Wild Card coming out of the NL West, that 15% has to come from the East and Central. After removing 1% from the top four NL East teams and the Reds, the Cardinals’ Wild Card chances are reduced by 10% to 16%. So now that we’ve accounted for how the Sabathia and Harden trades affect everyone’s playoff odds, let’s review where that leaves everyone’s odds going forward.

Updated Postseason Odds

NL East
Phillies 56.70%
Marlins 9.62%
Mets 48.89%
Braves 5.19%
Nationals 0.00%

NL Central
Cubs 95.13%
Cardinals 20.67%
Brewers 62.55%
Reds 0.52%
Pirates 0.00%
Astros 0.12%

NL West
Diamondbacks 50.16%
Dodgers 42.41%
Giants 2.78%
Rockies 4.77%
Padres 0.51%

Buyer or Seller

The Buyer or Seller series may have ended prematurely, but that doesn’t mean we can’t revisit it here. In certain situations, it’s obvious whether a team should be a buyer or seller, but there are other situations where it’s not so obvious. Here’s my opinion; I’d like to hear yours in the comments.

Buyers: Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers
Holders: Cubs
Sellers: Braves, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Astros, Giants, Rockies, and Padres
Undecided: Marlins and Cardinals

I plan on revisiting the Marlins and Cardinals in separate posts to make up my mind on where they should be. If I had to decide now, I’d place them in the Hold category.

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Also, I plan on having one more post regarding the All-Star selection process. Hopefully, I can get that up by Monday; it’s going to be especially difficult if my internet connection doesn’t start working.

Unlike the previous two teams I covered, it’s obvious the Cubs, at 48-29, are going to be contenders in 2008. The Cubs are also one of the most balanced teams in the league: 2nd most runs on offense and 5th fewest runs on defense. What do they need to put them over the top in their elusive hunt for a championship?

On offense, they currently have no holes, but there are a couple of question marks in my mind. One, can Ryan Theriot keep this up all year? Two, has Jim Edmonds found the fountain of youth buried deep inside Wrigley Field? To answer the first one, there’s nothing in Theriot’s advanced or batted ball statistics to suggest that he’s not for real. On the other hand, his batting line is held up by a great April. He hit .340/.415/.457 in April, followed by .308/.407/.337 in May and .308/.349/.333 in June. That’s right; he only has 5 extra base hits since April. If he has lost his stroke, the Cubs should still be okay as they can always turn to one of Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, or Eric Patterson (I still think DeRosa could handle shortstop). Center field might be a different story. After hitting .252/.325/.403 for the Cardinals last year, Edmonds opened the year hitting .178/.265/.233 for the Padres. That prompted the Padres to release him May 9th, and the Cubs signed him to a league-minimum contract 5 days later. In the same amount of playing time in Chicago as San Diego, Edmonds has hit .300/.352/.587. All told, he’s hitting .235/.305/.400 and his defense has been okay (.955/.914 RZR and 100/104 Rates with Chicago/San Diego). If he goes back to being 38 (okay, so he’s not 38 until Friday), the Cubs will need to look for another solution. The 23-year old Felix Pie hasn’t re-found his swing at AAA (.222/.274/.393), and on top of it, he recently injured his hand. Basically, if Edmonds falls apart, there’s a hole in center.

Moving to the pitching staff, the bullpen has been outstanding, led by non-closer Carlos Marmol. Over 40 innings, Marmol has struck out 64 and only walked 20 with an ERA of 3.00. The actual closer Kerry Wood has also pitched well. In his 38.2 IP, Wood has an ERA of 2.56 with 46 strikeouts and 8 walks. So if the bullpen doesn’t need any help, what about the rotation? Recently disabled Carlos Zambrano has pitched well as has the surprising Ryan Dempster. In the other three rotation spots, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Sean Gallagher have held their own. If the Cubs wanted to enhance their chances of both getting to and doing well in the playoffs, the starting rotation is a good place to target. They’ve been in several rumors, including those for C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. They have spare middle infielders (Cedeno, Fontenot, and Patterson), outfielders (Pie and Matt Murton) and starting pitchers to use as trade bait (Rich Hill and Sean Marshall). If they could land a top pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett, they’d have to be considered favorites in the National League. Maybe this is the year for the Cubs to break the 100-year curse.

Potential upgrades: SS, CF, SP

Possible trade bait: Cedeno, Fontenot, Patterson, Pie, Murton, Hill, Marshall

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Interesting note about the Cubs: They have pretty much everyone locked up for the next couple years. Their only 2008 free agents are Dempster, Wood, Bob Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, and DeRosa’s their only 2009 free agent.