The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.

Impact Center Fielders to Be Traded

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.

One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp, they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH. With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp as insurance.

Contenders Needing a Center Fielder

Atlanta Braves traded for Mark Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red Sox to trade Crisp.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s center field market won’t be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million to keep around for one more year.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in 2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.

Several players could make their way onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and Josh Hamilton.

Recap

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good 2008s.

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I recently terminated my email account associated with my Fox Sports account. Unless I'm blind, you can't change your email address for your profile. This means two things: 1) I won't receive email updates when you post comments, so my responses will be more delayed than normal. 2) I'll be looking to move my blog, but I'll let you know where it ends up.

Is there anything more revealing about the current state of the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding bullpen to finish 90-72.

Strengths

 That young, up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually, when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle, Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys, Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with young, inexpensive talent.

In addition to the young players that graduated to the major leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008. Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity and contract status could bring back something valuable.

That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal, and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M ($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season), Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and .270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.

All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes, Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.

Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in 236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61 appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents for another five seasons.

Concerns

Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb, Johnson, Davis, and Owings.

If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out 38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of 2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his major league problems in 2008.

Overall

Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division should be fun to watch for a while.

Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery. After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they should be back in contention for the Central once again.

Strengths

Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).

Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings. Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In 2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47 in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up 14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1 major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 2.68 is still pretty dominant.

Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno (.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.

Concerns

If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that should start in Baltimore next season.

Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field, Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a .202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is probably best used in a utility role.

As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit .326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit .281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.

It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.

Overall

As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good shape.

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Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be moving on.

The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.

Strengths

The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.

Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.

The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.

Concerns

Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.

Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.

Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.

Overall

If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.