If you asked someone to name the surprise team of 2008, you’d most likely be told the Tampa Bay Rays. PECOTA would disagree. What can the Rays do to enhance their chances in 2008 without hurting their chances down the road?

Holes to Fill

I would argue that their number one hole is at shortstop, where Jason Bartlett has not lived up to expectations since coming over from Minnesota. After hitting a modest .265/.339/.361 in 2007, Bartlett has hit an even worse .248/.294/.279 in 2008. While he has helped the Rays vastly improve their defense, it’s mostly because of how bad Brendan Harris was last year. Harris had an RZR of .760, 86 Rate, and -12 FRAA in 2007. Bartlett is only at an RZR of .822, 96 Rate, and -3 FRAA this year. So while he’s improved their SS defense over last year, it’s only because he’s been average to Harris’s not-quite-average defense. With both Reid Brignac and Tim Beckham in their farm system, they don’t need a long-term fix at short, but a short-term fix could help them. Unfortunately, that guy isn’t available by trade.

Other places they could try to upgrade include the rotation, the bullpen, and a right-handed outfielder. On the pitching side of things, it’s mostly to counteract risks in their current staff, whether that’s due to inexperience or health. As for the right-handed outfielder, that’s because Eric Hinske has only managed lines of .176/.317/.294 in 2008 and .228/.297/.372 in his career against left-handed pitchers. While Jonny Gomes can hit lefties (.230/.324/.508 in 2008 and .282/.384/.532 career), he’s already doing that for Cliff Floyd at DH. Who are possible targets for these positions? Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times mentions C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. In my opinion, those three outfielders are overkill for what they need, but they could always flip Hinske for something else if they acquired one of them.

Trade Bait

With 5 of the top 40 prospects still in the minor leagues, the Rays could do whatever they want in the trade market. Those five prospects are David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, and Jacob McGee. Even if they don’t make a big move, their system is more than just those 5 guys. The Rays have a ton of good prospects that they could use to make minor upgrades throughout the roster to bolster their chances in 2008.

Holes: SS, RH RF, SP, RP

Trade Bait: too many names to list

This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one piece.

Impact Outfielders to be Traded

Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million, which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be looking to trade him.

Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.

Impact Outfielder to be Signed

Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign him and be a better team on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does, no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.

Contenders Needing a Corner Outfielder

The Indians are going through spring training with David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners. When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at .287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of .300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t, which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay atop the AL Central.

Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.

Just Play the Youngsters Already

I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here, but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the 1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him on the bench.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell. The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.

I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade, but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t know if Votto can play the outfield.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.

Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Recap

The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Moving on to the AL Central, it was thought that 2008 and beyond would be a battle between the Indians and Tigers, but there has been some considerable movement in the division with more to come. The Tigers jumped out ahead with their acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, and the White Sox have forced their way back into the picture, but what should Central teams do going forward?

Chicago White Sox – Their acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, and Nick Swisher have changed up their positional outlook this offseason. Without left field as a possible destination to the loser of the 3B battle between Joe Crede and Josh Fields, the White Sox need to find a taker for Crede. Of course, this requires him to prove that he’s healthy and his swing is back. For the White Sox, they hope that he can do that in spring training. In addition, Juan Uribe is now their backup shortstop. Looking around the league, there are a few teams with worse starting shortstops, making him another piece of trade bait. In return, the White Sox could use some bullpen help. A free agent SP wouldn’t be a bad idea either. Nothing against John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but would you trust both to hold their spot in the rotation when your competitors are the Tigers and Indians? Of course, your options are limited, but when you paint yourself into a corner like the White Sox have (not a strong pick to win the division and a weak farm system), what would you expect?

Cleveland Indians – Coming off their ALCS appearance, only Kenny Lofton isn’t back with the team, but it’s disappointing that they haven’t brought in something more than Masahide Kobayashi. Three of their corners are manned by Casey Blake, Jason Michaels/David Dellucci, and Franklyn Gutierrez. Their up-the-middle players are strong offensively, but they could use some help from the spots that are your traditional offensive players. There were some rumors they were looking to acquire Jason Bay, but the only free agent that would be an improvement is Barry Bonds. I don’t see that happening. Moving elsewhere, the Indians are trying to re-sign C.C. Sabathia, and well, they should be. Sabathia is the only member of their core that is a free agent before the end of the 2010 season. Talk about being set up well for the next few years – young team coming off an ALCS appearance with only one potentially major free agent loss before 2011.

Detroit Tigers – The Tigers shocked quite a few people with their aggressiveness at the winter meetings. They got two years of both Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for less than the rumored deals for one year of Johan Santana. With the prior trade for Edgar Renteria, the Tigers are pretty much set for 2008. Brandon Inge is an interesting trade chip, and they could use another arm for the bullpen, but does anyone still consider Inge a major-league starter at 3B? I don’t think so, which leaves signing players to extensions. The only guy I’d consider that with is Miguel Cabrera, but are you really sure whether he’ll be a 3B or a 1B in two years? I think that question mark is enough to postpone extension talks to next offseason.

Kansas City Royals – You can start to see their 2010 team coming together here if you squint hard enough. Alberto Callaspo at 2B, Alex Gordon at 3B, Jose Guillen in LF, David DeJesus in CF, Mark Teahen in RF, Billy (edited) Butler at DH, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar in the rotation, and Joakim Soria at closer. I don’t agree fully with the methods they’re using – Guillen for $12M per year, really? – but at least there’s a long-term plan in place. That’s better than some organizations. The only suggestion I have for this offseason is to trade Brian Bannister. His value won’t get any higher, and in the end, he’s nothing more than back of the rotation filler (4.2 K/9).

Minnesota Twins – With the loss of Torii Hunter and the improvements made by the Tigers, White Sox, and Indians (young team with another year of experience), the Twins need to make a Johan Santana deal and a Joe Nathan deal. Given the rumors, they agree on the Santana front and used to agree on the Nathan front. I haven’t heard many Nathan rumors lately. If Mike Cuddyer is having a good year at the trade deadline, they could look into trading him as well. He’s a free agent after the ’09 season, and it’s not like the Twins will jump back to the top of the division in 2009 with Santana and Nathan in the rear-view mirror.