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Balancing the Market: Third Basemen
Feb 17, 2008 | 7:42PM | report this

I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

4 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, Troy Glaus, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Pedro Feliz, Colorado Rockies, Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals, Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, Los Angeles Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Garciaparra
 
Another One Bites the Dust: Florida Marlins
Sep 10, 2007 | 5:57PM | report this

Staying in the state of Florida, the Marlins' chances for the postseason first reached less than 1 in a million back on August 28th in the BP Postseason Odds Report, nearly a month and a half after the first team in this series.

The Good

Hanley Ramirez has become one of the best players in the major leagues, joining teammate Miguel Cabrera in that category, although they still might not be the best left side of the infield in their own division - thanks to the Met duo of Jose Reyes and David Wright. Jeremy Hermida has stayed healthy, which is a first at the big league level, and he's brought some of that famous minor-league OBP (.457 in AA in 2005) with him by hitting .288/.365/.496. Former Rule 5 pickup Dan Uggla has not only maintained his power from last year, he's increased it. Now if he could only find last year's batting average back...

Other than the high-profile acquisitions and failings (high-profile for the Marlins anyway) of Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez, the Marlins have been able to assemble a pretty good bullpen with Kevin Gregg collecting the saves after hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, and Lee Gardner have pitched the middle innings.

The Bad

After Joe Girardi worked the starting rotation to the bone last season chasing after the wild card and his Manager of the Year award, the young starters have predictably fallen apart. Josh Johnson only threw 37.1 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery to fix a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Ricky Nolasco has only thrown 55 innings due to elbow inflammation, and Anibal Sanchez only three 30 innings before undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum.

Looking to the Future

Just like the offseason before the 2006 season and the 2007 season, the Marlins need to find somebody that can handle center field on a full-time basis. After trying out guys like Reggie Abercrombie in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza this year, they keep resorting to Alfredo Amezaga, who should really be their backup utility guy. I like that they have tried out Cody Ross in center because I think he deserves a shot at a big league job, but I don't think he has the range to handle center everyday.

In addition to center field, the Marlins need to get their young arms healthy again and try to keep their current bullpen from imploding. Relievers always have the most variance in their year-to-year numbers, and it can multiply through the entire pen. (If you don't believe me, just check out the Brewers and Indians over the past several years.) If they can get full seasons from Johnson, Nolasco, and Sanchez next year, the Marlins could bounce back into contention next year. They need to because it won't be long before they no longer have Dontrelle Willis and/or Miguel Cabrera.

Add a comment   categories: Florida Marlins, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Girardi, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Reggie Abercrombie, Alejandro De Aza, Cody Ross, Josh Johnson, Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, Armando Benitez, Kevin Gregg, Jorge Julio, Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, Lee Gardner
 
Fantasy Rankings: Third Baseman
Mar 08, 2007 | 3:41PM | report this

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.


Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.
6 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, Chad Tracy, Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Joe Crede, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Akinori Iwamura, Kevin Kouzmanoff
 
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birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
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