In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model
presented in Baseball Between the Numbers
to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy
Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams
have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the
value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve
done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have
been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data,
there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a
complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement
level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no
consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for
determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner,
Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not
making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a
playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:
From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin
Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I
actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in
wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than
Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really
contenders.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on
top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I
guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th
in the voting?
On to the NL:
There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL
side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s)
mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under
$17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.
Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was
surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for
fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million
behind Holliday.
In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP
selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad
as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player
was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs,
does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his
teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most
valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If
so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?
The Colorado Rockies were the biggest surprise of the 2007
season. Everyone’s heard about their winning 21 of 22 and their 8-day layoff
before the World Series, but are they here to stay?
Strengths
Leading up to opening day, the talk was that Todd Helton
would be playing for the Red Sox in 2007, but those trade talks fell apart.
Once the season began, Helton proved that 2006 was a fluke that can be chalked
up to illness. His .320/.434/.494 line wasn’t back to his previous seasons, but
it is in line with his 2005 decline to .320/.445/.534. At 34 years old, Helton
is on the decline, and he isn’t getting any less expensive, but for the
present, he’s still an asset at first base. On the other side of the diamond,
Garrett Atkins started out slowly. After bottoming out with a .188/.259/.267
May, Atkins hit .349/.409/.532 post-All Star break (very similar to his 2006
rates) to reach his season line of .301/.367/.486. Next to Atkins, rookie Troy
Tulowitzki had a tremendous debut with both the glove and the bat. Tulowitzki
should win the gold glove award, although it wouldn’t surprise if he wasn’t
famous enough to win the vote (how else can Jeter win three straight?).
Tulowitzki got plenty of buzz during the postseason that he won’t be under the
radar for the gold glove next season.
Matt Holliday was another player that saw a surge in
popularity this postseason. A certain MVP candidate, Holliday hit
.340/.405/.607 while playing okay defensively in a spacious home outfield. The
only bad news for the Rockies is that Holliday only has two more seasons before
free agency. Across the outfield, Brad Hawpe slightly improved his numbers from
last year (.293/.383/.515 in 2006 to .291/.387/.539 in 2007), but he still
can’t hit lefties as his .220/.295/.398 line against them attests. If you mix
Hawpe with Ryan Spilborghs, you’ve got an outstanding right field platoon.
Spilborghs has hit lefties for a .338/.395/.510 clips in his major league
career. Once you add in Hawpe’s .315/.418/.585 clip against righties this year,
the Rockies would be a dominant force in right field.
If the Rockies get a lead, their bullpen has two strong
options going forward: Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes. Fuentes had been the
closer since 2005, but he lost his job to Corpas around the All Star break. In
a ten-day span, Fuentes gave up 10 earned runs in only 4.1 innings before being
placed on the DL for just over a month. If you remove that horrid span, Fuentes
managed a 1.74 ERA over 57 innings. However, Corpas has taken the job and run
with it, posting a 2.08 ERA over 78 IP. This left-right combo in the bullpen
will only get one year together unless Fuentes is signed to an extension as he
becomes a free agent next offseason.
Getting that lead to the bullpen has always been a problem
for past Colorado teams, but they have finally been able to get some productive
arms in the starting rotation led by Jeff Francis. Other than Francis and Aaron
Cook, the rest of the rotation will be filled out by their young guns, a couple
of which who were seen this postseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales.
From watching Jimenez, it is evident that he has major league quality stuff,
but he had trouble locating it in the strike zone. This year, he posted a 4.28
ERA over 82 major league innings, but that followed up a 5.85 ERA in 203 IP at
AAA. Morales was much better as he used 112.2 AAA innings with an ERA of 3.51
to propel him into the major league rotation, where he posted a 3.43 ERA over
39.1 regular season innings. The remaining spot in the rotation will most
likely be filled by Jason Hirsh, although Taylor Buchholz could be a fallback
option. Despite the increased talent in the Colorado rotation, there’s still a
tremendous amount of risk here.
Concerns
As I mentioned, Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger or
less expensive. They tried trading him last offseason, and although I’d suggest
them trying again, I doubt he’ll be as likely to waive his no-trade clause this
time around. It’s a shame because then the Rockies could move Atkins to first
base to make room for Ian Stewart. Instead, they have moved Stewart to second
base this offseason to try to fill the void left by Kazuo Matsui’s impending
free agency. If Stewart fails to make the transition, they’ll need to venture
into the free agent market. They could go try to re-sign Matsui or go after one
of Tadahito Iguchi and Luis Castillo. Yet another option is to let Jamey
Carroll try to hit enough to make his defense an asset.
Another potential free agent departure is Yorvit Torrealba.
With Chris Iannetta waiting in the wings, the Rockies should let Torrealba
walk. Unfortunately, most World Series teams overvalue what got them there, and
the Rockies could fall into that trap this year. Iannetta didn’t have a good
season by any means, but over a full season, he can be expected to easily
outproduce Torrealba at the plate. After all, Torrealba’s .255/.323/.376 line
this year is a pretty low mark to pass. Just remember, Iannetta did hit
.351/.447/.503 at AAA just one season ago.
With so many young arms expected to fill the rotation, the
Rockies should try to find a quality starting pitcher in free agency. It could
prove hard since some pitchers will probably still have reluctance to pitch at
Coors Field, but relying on Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsh to hold down three spots
in the rotation for the whole season is not a wise move.
The other concern that the Rockies must concern themselves
with is signing Holliday to an extension. As a Scott Boras client, will
Holliday break the trend and sign an extension instead of becoming a free
agent? If I’m the Rockies, I have to try.
Overall
It took me a while to figure out what I think the Rockies
should do. After all, they don’t have nearly as much young talent as the
Dodgers, and you can’t forget about the Diamondbacks or the Padres. Then again,
they don’t have Ned
Colletti running the show. If they could move Helton, I’d do it, and the
same goes for Holliday if they can’t get him signed to an extension. Since I
don’t think Helton will agree to a trade now that they’ve been to the World
Series, the Rockies should stay the course – replace Torrealba with Iannetta, hope that Ian Stewart can play
second base, and acquire a good #2 pitcher to slot into the rotation.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
