When I started this series, I said, “With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale.” Ten days later, it has. Due to this, I plan on keeping things much shorter from now on.

Impact Shortstops to Be Traded

Michael Young would be here, but he has a no-trade clause in his contract. Can you believe that he’s scheduled to make $16M every year from 2009 to 2013?

Contenders Needing a Shortstop

As I mentioned in my last article about the second base market, the Cubs should go after Mark Ellis instead of Brian Roberts as has been rumored. Without making a move, their best options up the middle are Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno. With Roberts, they could move DeRosa over to short, but I think a duo of Ellis at short and DeRosa at second would be a better solution. Whether or not Oakland will give up Ellis in a trade is a different story, but I think they should.

Next Year’s Free Agents

The Dodgers should try to extend Rafael Furcal. Sure, they’ve got a major-league shortstop in the minors with Chin-Lung Hu, but they’ve also got a second base spot opening up after the season with Jeff Kent’s free agency. One of them can move over to second, and Furcal is the type of guy worth an extension.

David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera are also free agents following the year, but none are worth worrying about before the season ends. Eckstein wasn’t worth a multi-year deal two months ago, and nothing’s changed since. The same can be said about Uribe three months ago. As for Cabrera, he’s a good player when he keeps his batting average up, but when it drops like it did in 2004 and 2005, he’s a below average shortstop. That’s not the type of guy that gets a new deal before his contract expires.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Obviously, Hanley Ramirez deserves a contract similar, yet more lucrative, than the 4-year, $23.5M contract Jose Reyes got in August 2006, but something tells me that the Florida Marlins aren’t about to fork out anything more than they have to pay him in 2008.

J.J. Hardy will be a free agent following the 2010 season, and he has exchanged arbitration figures with the Brewers ($3.05M/$2.4M) for this year. Until he proves that he can stay healthy and productive for consecutive seasons, I wouldn’t worry about locking up his future. If he can put together anything resembling his 2007 in 2008, it will be time to open the check book for a three-year deal.

Recap

Michael Young has a surprising amount of guaranteed money coming his way. The Cubs need to improve their shortstop, and Mark Ellis is the guy for the job. Rafael Furcal and Hanley Ramirez deserve a contract extension, but J.J. Hardy needs to prove himself one more time. David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera should all become free agents before they sign their next contract.

There is a trend in the coverage of fantasy baseball that the Cubs players should expect an increase in RBIs based on their additions at the top of the lineup: Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa. First of all, it should be stressed that these two players had their best years of their careers last year. Last year's numbers should not be expected to be repeated.

Using Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections (without giving away the actual premium numbers), Soriano is surprisingly expected to play at the same level in terms of his rate stats. The combination of a regression in his level of play and the improvement of hitting conditions going from RFK to Wrigley even things out in the projection. I'm not so sure about the assumed improvement in hitting conditions. As pointed out by Erik Siegrist, Soriano is well suited for RFK as is Andruw Jones. A slight regression might be in order for Soriano. Looking outside the PECOTA projection, Soriano's numbers last year were somewhat out-of-line with the rest of his career. His AVG was right in line with his career trend, but his OBP and SLG had unpredictable spikes. His career highs in both were .338 and .547. Last year, he was at .351 and .560. Having a career year at 30 isn't unheard of, but it isn't common for a player to repeat that career year a year later. He is the type of player who doesn't lose his skills quickly, but it wouldn't be wise to expect a repeat of last year. Given that, he's still a first round fantasy player.

DeRosa's PECOTA projection is just a slight reduction in production. Just like Soriano, DeRosa exceed his career highs in OBP and SLG (throwing out 2000 when he had only 13 AB) of .350 and .439. Last year, he hit .296/.357/.456. While those numbers are well above his career highs, he hadn't hit above .263 since 2002 and he's only three years removed from his 2004 .239/.293/.320 season.

With these two guys being placed at the top of the lineup in place of Juan Pierre and Neifi Perez/Todd Walker/everyone else, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez should be given more RBI opportunities as long as Soriano isn't driving himself in all the time.

As for Michael Barrett, these RBI opportunities might not reach him. He's projected to bat 7th in their lineup after batting 3rd-6th most of last year. This alone means that his RBIs shouldn't improve from last year, and his Rs should drop. Relying on Cesar Izturis and the pitcher to drive you in is a risky proposition. Plus, he had a career year last year at 29. His previous career highs in the triple slash categories were .293/.345/.489, which were achieved in 1999 and 2004. His numbers last year were .307/.368/.517. Obviously, these numbers should not be expected this year. PECOTA projects a massive disappearance in his power numbers (projected SLG of .468), putting his numbers much more in line with his track record. These are reasons why I projected him so low in my catcher rankings. However, PECOTA does place him 5th among catches behind the elite 3 and Johjima with an increase in runs and RBIs. I probably should have left him at 6th, which is where I had him written down on paper, rather than dropping him to 10th. Things would be even better if the Cubs took advantage of his on-base ability. Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, using PECOTA projections for everyone, has him batting leadoff in 15 of their top 30 lineups, including their top two.

Here's their best projected lineup:

1. Michael Barrett
2. Aramis Ramirez
3. Mark DeRosa
4. Alfonso Soriano
5. Derrek Lee
6. Jacque Jones
7. Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton
8. Pitcher
9. Cesar Izturis

As Tony LaRussa thought, it does make sense to put the pitcher in the 8th spot because a better hitter in the 9 spot creates more run-scoring opportunities for the top of the lineup. Unfortunately, the Cubs think Izturis is worth a starting spot, which drastically minimized that ability. The above lineup is projected for 5.361 runs per game. Their actual projected lineup is at 5.115 runs per game for a difference of .246 runs per game, which doesn't look like much but .246 runs per game is nearly 40 runs a season, or 4 wins. This is one case where lineup construction could matter in terms of both actual and fantasy production.

Regarding their fantasy value, a boost in RBIs should only be expected for Lee and Ramirez. Soriano should have a decrease in RBIs because he'll now have Izturis and the pitcher in front of him, so he won't have as many RBI opportunities. Soriano, DeRosa, and Barrett should also have slight declines in actual production from their 2006 career years. The Cubs are being overrated in the fantasy community heading into spring training.