The Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the second time in four years, but this one seems to be more of a Theo Epstein construction than the last one. The transition to becoming a team based on its farm system is underway, and Theo looks to be continuing the Red Sox winning ways for many years to come.

Strengths

Well, for one, they’re the defending champions. Two, unlike their last World Series winner, most of this team is under contract for next year. Third baseman Mike Lowell is the only key player that is a free agent after Curt Schilling signed a one-year $8M deal, which can increase up to $13M if he earns all of the bonuses.

When talking about the Red Sox, the conversation usually starts at the middle of the lineup. When David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have been in the middle of the order for as long as they have, it’s hard not to start there. Both of these players were perceived to have slumped this year, but Ortiz’s “slump” was actually a career year. It might be the first year in four that he didn’t hit 40 home runs, but his OBP climbed up to .445, a huge jump from his previous career high of .413 set last year. Plus, his SLG only fell 15 points from .636 to .621. Hitting 52 doubles makes up for the drop in home runs. Meanwhile, Manny really did slump, having the worst year of his major league career since he had 53 at bats as a 21-year old. When your worst season is .296/.388/.493, you know you’re good. Papi and Manny were given ample opportunities to drive in runners because the Greek God of Walks Kevin Youkilis, and his .390 OBP, was batting in front of them.

PECOTA darling Dustin Pedroia overcame a slow start (.182/.308/.236 in April) to hit .317/.380/.442 and take home the IBA AL Rookie of the Year award. Pedroia wasn’t the only homegrown prospect to make an appearance for the Red Sox. He was joined by Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. Ellsbury started the year on fire at AA, where he hit .452/.518/.644 in 73 at bats, before cooling off at AAA. In 363 at bats in the International League, Ellsbury hit .298/.360/.380. During a September call-up, he again caught fire with a .353/.394/.509 line in 116 major league at bats. He wasn’t the only Red Sox rookie to have a hot start to his major league career as Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz posted ERAs of 1.77, 3.96, and 1.59 in AA (86.2 IP), AAA (38.2 IP), and MLB (22.2 IP). Delcarmen was up to stay in mid-June and proved he belonged with a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief innings. Last but not least, Lester spent the off-season recovering from lymphoma, and after proving his health in AAA Pawtucket, he rejoined the Red Sox rotation in late July and pitched his way to a 4.57 ERA in 63 innings.

Of course, Ortiz, Ramirez, Youkilis, and the youngsters couldn’t have done it without their outstanding pitching staff. Josh Beckett finished second in the IBA voting for AL Cy Young behind C.C. Sabathia, but finishing second for the Cy Young still requires a phenomenal year. Beckett definitely had that with a 3.27 ERA over 200.2 innings. He was backed by Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and the two youngsters Buchholz and Lester. Schilling only threw 151 innings due to an injury and the Red Sox massive lead in the AL East, while Matsuzaka disappointed some in his first big league season. Before you get too down on Matsuzaka, a 4.40 ERA when half of your games are in Fenway Park isn’t a bad thing. He’s my candidate to take a massive step forward a la Beckett this season. All six guys that have already been mentioned will most likely be back in 2008 (unless the Red Sox find some reason to turn down Wakefield’s perpetual $4M team option). Since the Red Sox are well-known for their sabermetric understanding, they will find ways to get all six guys into the mix. The scenario I envision is Wakefield in the pen and spotting in for Lester and Buchholz to keep the innings off their young arms. Of course, any injury to a SP would force the remaining five to take their turns every time through the rotation.

Backing up the rotation in the later innings is a phenomenal bullpen. Led by Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, Terry Francona has it easy when he goes to the bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings. Plus, when you’ve got Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, and whoever gets left out of the rotation, it’s not like the earlier innings are hard to endure.

Concerns

World Series MVP Mike Lowell is a free agent. While much of the talk is about Alex Rodriguez right now, the Red Sox have expressed interest in re-signing Lowell. If Lowell signs elsewhere, talk will surely head to Rodriguez, but don’t forget that Youkilis can play third base, which means they can bring in someone to play either one of the corner infield spots. There aren’t really any good first basemen on the free agent market, but they could always get Ortiz out on the field. Before you think about his “horrific” defense, putting him at first frees up the DH spot for Manny. If you replace LF Ramirez, 3B Lowell, and 1B Youkilis with LF Coco Crisp/Ellsbury, 3B Youkilis, and 1B Ortiz, do you really lose anything on defense? Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics suggest that you actually gain defense with this arrangement, and whatever you lose on offense is okay because the Red Sox would still be the best team in the AL East and a good bet to return to the postseason.

Last offseason, Julio Lugo was brought in to provide good offense and defense from the shortstop spot? He provided neither. With $27M and three years left on the deal, he’s not exactly easily dealt either. The Red Sox best decision would be to give him another shot next year and hope he can prove his worth over the first half of the year. Regardless of his first half performance, their midseason decision would be based on Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie can continue his hot hitting (.298/.393/.503 split between AA and AAA) next year, he’ll be an easy choice to replace Lugo. If Lugo performs poorly, it’s time to cut bait and replace him with Lowrie. If Lugo performs well, it’s time to trade him and replace him with Lowrie.

Overall

After a World Series championship, it’s easy to expect the Red Sox to put forth a valiant effort to repeat. While they’re expected to make it back to the postseason, everyone knows that the postseason is a crapshoot so it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have the decision of whether or not to bring back Mike Lowell as a luxury item (they don’t need him) and how to handle their shortstop situation. Next offseason will be more interesting with Manny’s and Jason Varitek’s contracts expiring. In the meantime, Red Sox fans, enjoy your championship and I’ll expect to see you again next postseason.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

For outfielders, I am not considering individual positions. If your league does, push CF up in the rankings.

Replacement Level
81 R, 20 HR, 75, 11 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Second Tier
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies

Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.

Third Tier
4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.

Fourth Tier
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fifth Tier
11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves

Sixth Tier
13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds

There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.

Seventh Tier
16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees
19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox
22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves

Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.

Eighth Tier
23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals
26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies
33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins
34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics
36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers
43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres

Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.