I’m trying out a new format today. Let me know if you think it’s better than the old one.

Window of Opportunity: 2008-2009 with a good possibility of extending it

C: Chris Coste deserves more playing time (.317/.376/.549 vs. Carlos Ruiz’s .213/.308/.287)

1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF: Set with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, and Shane Victorino

3B: Greg Dobbs deserves more playing time against RHP (.330/.368/.453)

RF: Jayson Werth has done his part by hitting lefties .299/.365/.649, but Geoff Jenkins hasn’t hit righties so far (only .254/.304/.406). However, Jenkins’ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sits 40 points lower than expected (based on line drive rate and career average), so things can turn around quickly.

SP: Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer are doing their part, but Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers have question marks. Kendrick’s and Eaton’s K/9 rates of 4.00 and 4.70 mean they’re walking a fine line, while Myers’ BB/9 of 3.90 and HR/9 of 2.12 are the reason why he’s back in the minors. Acquiring a starter, as rumored, would help them considerably in 2008.

Before I talk about the Phillies’ bullpen, I want to mention how I view bullpens in general. First, they shouldn’t be a concern until the rest of the team is ready to compete. In other words, a top closer on a losing team is a waste of money (see Jose Valverde and Francisco Cordero). Second, while you don’t want to ignore the back of the bullpen, only the top two or three are really important to your success. To make my point, consider who pitches the 8th and 9th innings in tight games, they’re usually the same guys for every team. When it comes to the playoffs, it is the same guys every night. Third, relief pitchers are the most variable players from year-to-year, so investing a lot of money in your bullpen means nothing when it comes to the performance you’ll get. Consider the Indians’ bullpen over the last four years: 12.506 WXRL in 2005, -1.532 in 2006, 13.514 in 2007, and -2.908 in 2008.

So when it comes to building a bullpen as the trade deadline approaches, I generally don’t worry about it unless it’s in shambles or lacking a top-of-the-line closer. With that in mind, let’s get back to the Phillies.

RP: With Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, and Ryan Madson pitching well with good peripherals, I don’t consider this an area in need of help, but that hasn’t stopped the Phillies from being mentioned in the Brian Fuentes rumors.

Holes to Fill: SP

Trade Bait (Speculation): Carlos Carrasco, Antonio ####o, Josh Outman, Jason Donald

On the surface, the Chicago White Sox appear to be a team with no easily-upgraded positions. That would seem to be a good thing, but going into the trade deadline only up 2.5 games, it isn't. A team without easily-upgraded spots can't make moves to counter moves made by the teams chasing them. In essence, the competition can get better, but you can't. Although Kenny Williams doesn't seem likely to make a move, I see one spot that needs fixing.

Alexei Ramirez appears to be doing all right. He’s hitting .294/.318/.439 on the season. The .318 OBP is definitely not impressive, but it also shows me something worse. With only six walks on the year, his plate discipline is terrible and might be a sign that he needs some time in the minors. By swinging at 43% of pitches out of the strike zone, he swings at more pitches out of the zone than everyone except Vladimir Guerrero. While pitchers know that Vladimir will swing out of the zone and compensate by throwing only 40% of their pitches in the strike zone, they haven’t figured that out about Ramirez...yet. A full 54% of pitches Ramirez sees are in the strike zone. Let me re-phrase. Although Ramirez swings at more balls than all but 1 player, he sees more strikes than all but 17 players. Eventually, the opposition will catch on and throw fewer strikes. If Ramirez doesn’t show more discipline, his average is going to plummet quickly. When that happens, the White Sox will find that they need a better 2B. They probably don’t have what it takes to get Brian Roberts, but Mark Grudzielanek and Ray Durham would be good targets.

On the flip side, Paul Konerko was simply not performing before he went on the DL with a strained left oblique. Konerko has hit .215/.322/.368 on the season mostly due to a measly .232 BABIP. Based on his 20.3% line drive rate, his BABIP should be closer to .323. That gives reason to believe that he should be better when he returns. If he isn’t, then the White Sox will have something of an albatross on hand as Konerko’s due $12M in both 2009 and 2010.

Holes to Fill: 2B

Trade Bait: prospects although most of their offseason top prospects now play in the Oakland system

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If you have any interest in the Giants, Tim Lincecum, pitching mechanics, pitching injuries, or great baseball articles, be sure to check out Tom Verducci's How Tiny Tim Became a Pitching Giant. It's a great article and certainly qualifies as a must-read.

If you asked someone to name the surprise team of 2008, you’d most likely be told the Tampa Bay Rays. PECOTA would disagree. What can the Rays do to enhance their chances in 2008 without hurting their chances down the road?

Holes to Fill

I would argue that their number one hole is at shortstop, where Jason Bartlett has not lived up to expectations since coming over from Minnesota. After hitting a modest .265/.339/.361 in 2007, Bartlett has hit an even worse .248/.294/.279 in 2008. While he has helped the Rays vastly improve their defense, it’s mostly because of how bad Brendan Harris was last year. Harris had an RZR of .760, 86 Rate, and -12 FRAA in 2007. Bartlett is only at an RZR of .822, 96 Rate, and -3 FRAA this year. So while he’s improved their SS defense over last year, it’s only because he’s been average to Harris’s not-quite-average defense. With both Reid Brignac and Tim Beckham in their farm system, they don’t need a long-term fix at short, but a short-term fix could help them. Unfortunately, that guy isn’t available by trade.

Other places they could try to upgrade include the rotation, the bullpen, and a right-handed outfielder. On the pitching side of things, it’s mostly to counteract risks in their current staff, whether that’s due to inexperience or health. As for the right-handed outfielder, that’s because Eric Hinske has only managed lines of .176/.317/.294 in 2008 and .228/.297/.372 in his career against left-handed pitchers. While Jonny Gomes can hit lefties (.230/.324/.508 in 2008 and .282/.384/.532 career), he’s already doing that for Cliff Floyd at DH. Who are possible targets for these positions? Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times mentions C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. In my opinion, those three outfielders are overkill for what they need, but they could always flip Hinske for something else if they acquired one of them.

Trade Bait

With 5 of the top 40 prospects still in the minor leagues, the Rays could do whatever they want in the trade market. Those five prospects are David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, and Jacob McGee. Even if they don’t make a big move, their system is more than just those 5 guys. The Rays have a ton of good prospects that they could use to make minor upgrades throughout the roster to bolster their chances in 2008.

Holes: SS, RH RF, SP, RP

Trade Bait: too many names to list

After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)

Unlike the previous two teams I covered, it’s obvious the Cubs, at 48-29, are going to be contenders in 2008. The Cubs are also one of the most balanced teams in the league: 2nd most runs on offense and 5th fewest runs on defense. What do they need to put them over the top in their elusive hunt for a championship?

On offense, they currently have no holes, but there are a couple of question marks in my mind. One, can Ryan Theriot keep this up all year? Two, has Jim Edmonds found the fountain of youth buried deep inside Wrigley Field? To answer the first one, there’s nothing in Theriot’s advanced or batted ball statistics to suggest that he’s not for real. On the other hand, his batting line is held up by a great April. He hit .340/.415/.457 in April, followed by .308/.407/.337 in May and .308/.349/.333 in June. That’s right; he only has 5 extra base hits since April. If he has lost his stroke, the Cubs should still be okay as they can always turn to one of Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, or Eric Patterson (I still think DeRosa could handle shortstop). Center field might be a different story. After hitting .252/.325/.403 for the Cardinals last year, Edmonds opened the year hitting .178/.265/.233 for the Padres. That prompted the Padres to release him May 9th, and the Cubs signed him to a league-minimum contract 5 days later. In the same amount of playing time in Chicago as San Diego, Edmonds has hit .300/.352/.587. All told, he’s hitting .235/.305/.400 and his defense has been okay (.955/.914 RZR and 100/104 Rates with Chicago/San Diego). If he goes back to being 38 (okay, so he’s not 38 until Friday), the Cubs will need to look for another solution. The 23-year old Felix Pie hasn’t re-found his swing at AAA (.222/.274/.393), and on top of it, he recently injured his hand. Basically, if Edmonds falls apart, there’s a hole in center.

Moving to the pitching staff, the bullpen has been outstanding, led by non-closer Carlos Marmol. Over 40 innings, Marmol has struck out 64 and only walked 20 with an ERA of 3.00. The actual closer Kerry Wood has also pitched well. In his 38.2 IP, Wood has an ERA of 2.56 with 46 strikeouts and 8 walks. So if the bullpen doesn’t need any help, what about the rotation? Recently disabled Carlos Zambrano has pitched well as has the surprising Ryan Dempster. In the other three rotation spots, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Sean Gallagher have held their own. If the Cubs wanted to enhance their chances of both getting to and doing well in the playoffs, the starting rotation is a good place to target. They’ve been in several rumors, including those for C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. They have spare middle infielders (Cedeno, Fontenot, and Patterson), outfielders (Pie and Matt Murton) and starting pitchers to use as trade bait (Rich Hill and Sean Marshall). If they could land a top pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett, they’d have to be considered favorites in the National League. Maybe this is the year for the Cubs to break the 100-year curse.

Potential upgrades: SS, CF, SP

Possible trade bait: Cedeno, Fontenot, Patterson, Pie, Murton, Hill, Marshall

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Interesting note about the Cubs: They have pretty much everyone locked up for the next couple years. Their only 2008 free agents are Dempster, Wood, Bob Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, and DeRosa’s their only 2009 free agent.