After a second-place finish last year, the Blue Jays are back in their customary #3 spot, where they have finished 8 of the last 10 seasons.

The Good

A couple of 39 year old hitters have put up pretty good seasons. Frank Thomas has been able to stay healthy for a whole season and continues to prove that he can still hit. Matt Stairs is the big surprise here, logging play in the outfield corners and first base while hitting .295/.374/.560.

Everyone knew that the front of the rotation would pitch well when healthy, and they've proven that to be the case. A.J. Burnett might never post 30 starts in a season again, but he and Roy Halladay are a pretty good top 2. Joining them in the rotation have been a pretty effective trio of Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. Once the rotation gives the ball to the bullpen, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, and Casey Janssen have done a good job of closing things out since B.J. Ryan got hurt early on. 

The Bad

One of their big free agent signings from two years ago, B.J. Ryan has always been a significant injury risk due to his mechanics, and this year proved to be a tough year as he had Tommy John surgery back on May 10th.

Making matters worse, their big signing this past offseason was to lock up Vernon Wells for 7 years and $126M, and he has failed to come through on his end of the deal by hitting a paltry .245/.304/.402. Given his career line of .281/.331/.478, he should bounce back next year, but we'll see just how much of a rebound he has in him. Joining Ryan on the sidelines, Lyle Overbay missed a month of the season and hasn't particularly played well when he's been in the lineup. A .242/.318/.394 hitting line is not what you expect from your first baseman.

Just to pile on, GM J.P. Ricciardi signed replacement-level John McDonald to a multi-year contract at $1.9M per year for 2008 and 2009. He is pretty good with the glove, but is it enough to make up for his hitting .246/.271.324? That's pretty doubtful, and at 32 (he turns 33 Monday), it's not likely to get any better. He's probably best suited for a utility/defensive substitution role, but are those guys supposed to be making nearly $2M a season?

Looking Forward

It's not hard to like the Blue Jay pitching staff (currently third in MLB in ERA), but their offense is not particularly good. If Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay return to their previous levels, they could be onto something. But that assumes that the rest of the team is at least as good as they were this year. With high injury risks like Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas, that isn't a guarantee. Plus, the injury risks don't end with the position players, Burnett, Ryan, and Halladay have all had their battles with the injury bug. Just like his former boss in Oakland, Ricciardi has a lot of risk built into his roster, and also like Billy Beane's team, next year's luck with injuries could determine the direction of this team.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.