First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one piece.

Impact Outfielders to be Traded

Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million, which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be looking to trade him.

Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.

Impact Outfielder to be Signed

Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign him and be a better team on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does, no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.

Contenders Needing a Corner Outfielder

The Indians are going through spring training with David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners. When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at .287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of .300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t, which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay atop the AL Central.

Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.

Just Play the Youngsters Already

I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here, but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the 1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him on the bench.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell. The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.

I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade, but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t know if Votto can play the outfield.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.

Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Recap

The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

When I started this series, I said, “With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale.” Ten days later, it has. Due to this, I plan on keeping things much shorter from now on.

Impact Shortstops to Be Traded

Michael Young would be here, but he has a no-trade clause in his contract. Can you believe that he’s scheduled to make $16M every year from 2009 to 2013?

Contenders Needing a Shortstop

As I mentioned in my last article about the second base market, the Cubs should go after Mark Ellis instead of Brian Roberts as has been rumored. Without making a move, their best options up the middle are Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno. With Roberts, they could move DeRosa over to short, but I think a duo of Ellis at short and DeRosa at second would be a better solution. Whether or not Oakland will give up Ellis in a trade is a different story, but I think they should.

Next Year’s Free Agents

The Dodgers should try to extend Rafael Furcal. Sure, they’ve got a major-league shortstop in the minors with Chin-Lung Hu, but they’ve also got a second base spot opening up after the season with Jeff Kent’s free agency. One of them can move over to second, and Furcal is the type of guy worth an extension.

David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera are also free agents following the year, but none are worth worrying about before the season ends. Eckstein wasn’t worth a multi-year deal two months ago, and nothing’s changed since. The same can be said about Uribe three months ago. As for Cabrera, he’s a good player when he keeps his batting average up, but when it drops like it did in 2004 and 2005, he’s a below average shortstop. That’s not the type of guy that gets a new deal before his contract expires.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Obviously, Hanley Ramirez deserves a contract similar, yet more lucrative, than the 4-year, $23.5M contract Jose Reyes got in August 2006, but something tells me that the Florida Marlins aren’t about to fork out anything more than they have to pay him in 2008.

J.J. Hardy will be a free agent following the 2010 season, and he has exchanged arbitration figures with the Brewers ($3.05M/$2.4M) for this year. Until he proves that he can stay healthy and productive for consecutive seasons, I wouldn’t worry about locking up his future. If he can put together anything resembling his 2007 in 2008, it will be time to open the check book for a three-year deal.

Recap

Michael Young has a surprising amount of guaranteed money coming his way. The Cubs need to improve their shortstop, and Mark Ellis is the guy for the job. Rafael Furcal and Hanley Ramirez deserve a contract extension, but J.J. Hardy needs to prove himself one more time. David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera should all become free agents before they sign their next contract.

While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’s hit .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.