One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

Is there anything more revealing about the current state of the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding bullpen to finish 90-72.

Strengths

 That young, up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually, when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle, Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys, Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with young, inexpensive talent.

In addition to the young players that graduated to the major leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008. Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity and contract status could bring back something valuable.

That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal, and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M ($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season), Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and .270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.

All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes, Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.

Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in 236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61 appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents for another five seasons.

Concerns

Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb, Johnson, Davis, and Owings.

If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out 38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of 2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his major league problems in 2008.

Overall

Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division should be fun to watch for a while.