The Houston Astros are 12 GB of the Cubs in the division and 10 GB of the Cardinals in the Wild Card. To make matters worse, the Astros would have to pass four teams to claim the division and six teams to claim the Wild Card. They’ve been outscored on the season by 49 runs, and they’ve actually outperformed their underlying metrics. According to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus, their chances of making the playoffs are less than one percent. So why are they trying to improve their 2008 team?

Sometimes, teams make decisions that defy logic. While it’s possible that the Astros can come back and make the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely. For that reason, the Astros would be better off playing for 2009, or are they?

Ages 27, 28, and 29 are generally considered players’ prime years. On the Astros’ current roster, there are only five guys in their pre-prime years: Wesley Wright, J.R. Towles, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Oscar Villarreal. If the Astros keep their current roster around for 2009, they can be expected to be even worse than they are in 2008. To compete in 2009, they’d probably have to bring in a new outfielder to replace Bourn and a couple of starting pitchers. With that being unlikely, that leaves the Astros with two options: play for 2008 or Billy Beane the roster.

In situations like this, I’d rather see the team follow in the footsteps of Billy Beane and blow up the roster, but that’s not completely possible. Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee have full no-trade clauses through 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. With those no-trade clauses, the Astros can’t enter complete rebuilding mode. Since they’re unlikely to contend in 2008 or 2009 and they can’t enter rebuilding mode, the Astros are in no man’s land. So what are the Astros to do?

In my opinion, they should sell off what they can: infielders Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, Kazuo Matsui, and Mark Loretta and pitchers Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail. Once those players go, you might be able to convince Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee to waive their no-trade clauses. This is the only way I see the Astros reviving their franchise and building something special.

In a season where they were more concerned with achieving records than winning ball games, is it any surprise the Astros are not in the playoff race?

The Good

Roy Oswalt has continued to be Roy Oswalt, although his peripherals have been on the decline. This marks the fourth straight year that Oswalt has seen his strikeout rate decline, but the bigger scare comes from the walk rate, which has jumped up from 1.55 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.59 BB/9 this season.

Carlos Lee's first season as an Astro has gone pretty well for him as he's currently hitting .297/.351/.515, which is pretty well in line with his career average. After a month experimenting with Chris Burke in center field, the Astros brought up Hunter Pence to be their full-time center fielder, and the results have been outstanding. Most years, a CF hitting .324/.360/.548 would be a rookie of the year, but he'll probably lose out to Ryan Braun in this year's award voting.

The Bad

This seems to be the story as I understand it. Owner Drayton McLane forced Craig Biggio into the lineup so that Biggio could reach the 3000-hit milestone. While Biggio was sucking up playing time and batting .252/.283/.390, the Astros were losing. Once Biggio got to the milestone, it seems that McLane began to see just how poorly the team was doing and decided that GM Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner were to blame.

I'm not saying that Purpura and Garner did a good job, but it's not usually customary to handcuff your employees by forcing them to put a past-his-expiration player out on the field before kicking them to the curb after they fail to produce (mostly due to your mistakes).

Getting back to players that didn't perform well, Lance Berkman put up good numbers, but they weren't Berkman numbers. After six years of posting .400+ OBPs and .500+ SLG, Berkman has only hit .276/.384/.499. It isn't that apparent when looking at his counting (team-dependent) stats, but Berkman has not performed up to expectations.

Looking Forward

While the Astros have seen Pence and Wandy Rodriguez lay claim to roster spots, there isn't much in their farm system that will help them out over the next few years. In this year's draft, the Astros had forfeited their first and second round picks during free agency by signing Carlos Lee and Woody Williams. On top of that, they failed to sign their third and fourth round picks. Based on previous seasons, McLane doesn't like to let his scouting department sign prospects to large bonuses, and the results shine through in their farm system. If you don't put the money down to draft and sign the best talent, you're basically forfeiting away the cheapest source of talent in the game today. Until this gets corrected, the Astros will not be consistent contenders. As for 2008, anything is possible in the NL Central.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

For outfielders, I am not considering individual positions. If your league does, push CF up in the rankings.

Replacement Level
81 R, 20 HR, 75, 11 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Second Tier
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies

Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.

Third Tier
4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.

Fourth Tier
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fifth Tier
11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves

Sixth Tier
13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds

There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.

Seventh Tier
16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees
19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox
22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves

Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.

Eighth Tier
23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals
26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies
33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins
34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics
36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers
43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres

Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.