I’m trying out a new format today. Let me know if you think it’s better than the old one.

Window of Opportunity: 2008-2009 with a good possibility of extending it

C: Chris Coste deserves more playing time (.317/.376/.549 vs. Carlos Ruiz’s .213/.308/.287)

1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF: Set with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, and Shane Victorino

3B: Greg Dobbs deserves more playing time against RHP (.330/.368/.453)

RF: Jayson Werth has done his part by hitting lefties .299/.365/.649, but Geoff Jenkins hasn’t hit righties so far (only .254/.304/.406). However, Jenkins’ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sits 40 points lower than expected (based on line drive rate and career average), so things can turn around quickly.

SP: Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer are doing their part, but Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers have question marks. Kendrick’s and Eaton’s K/9 rates of 4.00 and 4.70 mean they’re walking a fine line, while Myers’ BB/9 of 3.90 and HR/9 of 2.12 are the reason why he’s back in the minors. Acquiring a starter, as rumored, would help them considerably in 2008.

Before I talk about the Phillies’ bullpen, I want to mention how I view bullpens in general. First, they shouldn’t be a concern until the rest of the team is ready to compete. In other words, a top closer on a losing team is a waste of money (see Jose Valverde and Francisco Cordero). Second, while you don’t want to ignore the back of the bullpen, only the top two or three are really important to your success. To make my point, consider who pitches the 8th and 9th innings in tight games, they’re usually the same guys for every team. When it comes to the playoffs, it is the same guys every night. Third, relief pitchers are the most variable players from year-to-year, so investing a lot of money in your bullpen means nothing when it comes to the performance you’ll get. Consider the Indians’ bullpen over the last four years: 12.506 WXRL in 2005, -1.532 in 2006, 13.514 in 2007, and -2.908 in 2008.

So when it comes to building a bullpen as the trade deadline approaches, I generally don’t worry about it unless it’s in shambles or lacking a top-of-the-line closer. With that in mind, let’s get back to the Phillies.

RP: With Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, and Ryan Madson pitching well with good peripherals, I don’t consider this an area in need of help, but that hasn’t stopped the Phillies from being mentioned in the Brian Fuentes rumors.

Holes to Fill: SP

Trade Bait (Speculation): Carlos Carrasco, Antonio ####o, Josh Outman, Jason Donald

One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

After a tremendous comeback to win the NL East, the Phillies were run over by the streaking Colorado Rockies. To their credit, they have quickly turned to offseason mode by re-signing Charlie Manuel as manager and buying out the options on Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez’s contracts. With several holes to fill, Pat Gillick has his hands full going into 2008.

Strength

Three-fourths of the infield is the easiest strength to spot in Philadelphia. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the club could keep plugging them in at first, second, and short through 2011 without even having to consider a long-term contract extension. Following that season, Howard will qualify for free agency for the first time, and Rollins’s contract will end (assuming the Phillies pick up his 2011 option at $8.5M). To balance out the offense, they’ll once again be joined by Pat Burrell out in left field. Despite his bashing by fans and media, Burrell has been consistently good the last three seasons. His OBP has been between .388 and .400, and his SLG has been between .502 and .504 over that period.

Playoff teams usually have an ace that leads the way on the pitching rubber, and the Phillies had that guy when Cole Hamels was healthy. Hamels pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA. He was joined in the rotation at the beginning of the season by current, and future, closer Brett Myers. Myers pitched poorly in his three starts to begin the year, accumulating a 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings, but can you really come to any conclusions over just three starts? The Phillies decided that they needed to fix their bullpen, so Myers moved to the pen. When Tom Gordon went down, Myers stepped into the closer’s role and pitched well. Since his conversion to relief work, Myers threw 53.1 innings and gave up only 17 earned runs for a 2.87 ERA. He did so while striking out 10.8 batters, walking 3.0, and giving up 0.7 HR per nine innings, which works out to a 2.79 FIP (nicely fits his actual ERA).

Concerns

Aaron Rowand is yet another data point for the idea that players perform better in contract years. Rowand beat his career averages (.286/.343/.462) in every single category by hitting .309/.374/.515. He is well-regarded for his defense as well. He enters the market along with fellow center fielders Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron. If the Phillies are unwilling to pony up the cash for one of the players, they could look internally. Shane Victorino is returning as are Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Either Victorino or Bourn could handle center field with the other handling right field against righties. Against lefties, Manuel should try to get Jayson Werth as many at bats as possible. Werth hit .375/.467/.591 against lefties this year and has hit them at a rate of .284/.378/.486 over his career.

The Phillies’ main concern is the pitching staff. In the rotation, Hamels will be joined by Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Moyer will be 45, Kendrick only struck out 49 guys in 121 major league innings, and Eaton gave up 30 HR and 71 walks in his 161.2 innings this season. All three are question marks, and there’s still one spot left to fill. Their departing free agent Kyle Lohse is quite possibly the best option on that particular market. The Phillies will need to turn to the trade market to address this need, but I’m not sure what they’ll be using to acquire other team’s talent. There isn’t much top-level talent in the system. Phillies’ management will need to get creative.

After (or before) the rotation gets fixed, Gillick will have to upgrade the bullpen. Former closer Tom Gordon will be back as will Ryan Madson. Madson strained his shoulder in late July, and it was rumored that he could’ve returned had the Phillies advanced to the NLCS. Other than those two and Brett Myers, there isn’t much good left to talk about returning from the 2007 pen. J.C. Romero is a free agent and has expressed a desire to return, but it’s questionable if his smoke and mirrors routine (1.24 K/BB in Philadelphia) will continue to fool hitters.

Overall

The Phillies have some work to do if they want to return to the top of the division, but so do the other NL East teams. With at least four years of their three great infielders and ace pitcher, the Phillies are positioned to be contenders for a while, but they need to fix their massive holes because they aren’t the only team positioned well in the NL East.