The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.
Strengths
The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.
Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.
The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.
Concerns
Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.
Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.
Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.
Overall
If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.
I guess I shouldn't have stopped putting this at the top of each ranking. These rankings are meant for a 12-team, basic 5x5 mixed league, where the categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG (which would be exactly why they are the only stats listed for the position's definition of replacement level).
There seems to be a lot of complaints about including guys that didn't play in the majors last year. Well, if you've never heard of minor-league translated stats, you're only about 10-20 years behind the game. These translations convert minor league statistics into their equivalents in the majors, and they're deadly accurate. Think about it. Baseball has been around for over 100 years, and the minors about that long. There's an insane amount of data for comparing what a certain player has done at say AA at the age of 23 (like Alex Gordon). There are more than likely numerous players that have done similar things at that age and level.
Alex Gordon's translated hitting stats are .302/.386/.538, or roughly the equivalent of Vernon Wells with more walks last year. If you aren't impressed by his stats, check out his Wikipedia profile. At the University of Nebraska, he was the Big 12 Player of the Year twice, a First Team College All-American twice, and the Baseball America Player of the Year. He also won the Golden Spikes Award, the #### Howser Trophy, Brooks Wallace Award, and the ABCA National Player of the Year Award. He was selected second overall in the draft over Ryan Zimmerman. Hmm, ever heard of him?
If you're still doubting that a player can make an impact in his first big league season, just look at last year.
C - Brian McCann, Kenji Johjima 1B - Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder 2B - Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips, Josh Barfield 3B - Ryan Zimmerman SS - Hanley Ramirez OF - okay, you got me here SP - Francisco Liriano, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson RP - Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Cla Meredith, Joel Zumaya
Expecting guys like Alex Gordon, Akinori Iwamura, and Kevin Kouzmanoff is not a stretch. Below are their Davenport Translations (in YR: AVG/OBP/SLG/LG form) from previous years. The LG is only what league he played in. Remember the numbers are translated to major league performance.
Kevin Kouzmanoff 2004: .291/.335/.447/A 2005: .303/.346/.496/high-A 2006: .368/.417/.636/AA in 276 PA and .324/.383/.618/AAA in 115 PA
Those are good major league numbers from all three of them. While any one of them could fall flat on his face at the major league level, any one of them could also explode with a monster year. In fantasy leagues, it's the stars you want. With these three, you have a better chance of finding a star than the other guys in their respective tiers. It's the risk of getting nothing out of them that keeps them from being higher on the board.
FYI: There's also talk of playing Iwamura at 2B if Jorge Cantu doesn't play well, so he could be a big-time player there as well.
First Tier 1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.
2. David Wright, New York Mets Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.
5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.
Second Tier 6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.
7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.
8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.
9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.
Third Tier 10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals 11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.
Fourth Tier 12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds 13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox 14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics 15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers 16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres
If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.
Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.
Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
