Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote “The Teflon Manager” Sunday about how Dusty Baker is “ill-suited to his personnel.” I couldn’t agree more. As a former Reds’ fan surrounded by actual Reds’ fans, I couldn’t help but laugh when they hired Dusty Baker. The Reds have four of the top 41 prospects in baseball, and all four will see time in the major leagues this year. Baker has a predilection for veterans at the expense of their more talented but unproven challengers. He also has been blamed for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Neither of these can be good for the development of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, or Johnny Cueto.

We’ll start with Joey Votto, who is a major subject in this blog and its comments. Baker wants Votto to become more aggressive than the take-and-rake approach that has made him the 21st prospect in baseball. Some people, such as an anonymous posted on the above blog, agree with this philosophy because “I'll take 50 walks and 200 hits over 150 hits and 100 walks any day.” I don’t think you’ll find anyone that disagrees with that statement. The problem is when you take a guy that gets 150 hits and 100 walks and try to turn him into a guy with 200 hits and 50 walks, you’ll probably end up with a guy that gets 160-170 hits and 50-60 walks. I’m not saying that Votto would get 150 hits and 100 walks, but the logic still stands. Dusty, please leave Votto alone. His approach has gotten him this far, and he’ll be better without your “help.”

With the two pitchers Bailey and Cueto, the worry is that Baker hasn’t learned his lesson from Wood and Prior. Only time will tell. As Nate Silver put it, “If the careers of Bailey and Cueto are ruined by high pitch counts, it will be Dusty who pulled the trigger–but the Reds who hired the assassin.”

When it comes to the top prospect in baseball Jay Bruce, Baker is so worried about having a leadoff hitter in the lineup that he’s ignoring the first step in making out a lineup: get the top 8 players out on the field. Jay Bruce split his time over three levels in 2007. He hit .325/.379/.586, .333/.405/.652, and .305/.358/.567 at High-A, AA, and AAA. The Reds kept challenging him by moving him up, and Bruce kept showing that he can hit. The competition in center includes Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel, and Norris Hopper. Patterson has a career OBP of .298, enough said. Freel’s career line is .270/.358/.378, so while he can get on base as well as Bruce, he doesn’t have the power that Bruce has. Hopper was 27 before he made it to the majors in 2006. Last year, Hopper saw significant time in the Reds’ outfield and hit .329/.371/.388; so again, he has the on-base ability of Bruce but not the power. Bruce is ready for the majors, but it won’t be surprising if he ends up back at AAA to start the year. As an example of what he can add to the Reds’ 2008 team, I have used PECOTA’s projections and Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis to estimate the Reds’ projected lineup with Baker’s likely choice in center Patterson and the Reds’ projected lineup with Bruce.

With Patterson:

1. Corey Patterson
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 4.845

With Bruce:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 5.024

They estimate Bruce to add nearly 0.2 runs per game to the Reds’ lineup, or 32.4 runs over 162 games. That’s equivalent to about 3 wins in the standings. I think it’s safe to say that their defensive difference isn’t worth that much.

Dusty Baker’s tendencies don’t fit the current profile of the Cincinnati Reds. Following the Reds’ 2007 season, their hopes for 2008 were high based on their four major league-ready top prospects. With Dusty Baker running the show, Reds’ fans should be worried.

Milwaukee's highly touted young position players shined through this year. They weren't able to hold onto a playoff spot, but this team isn't going away. Most of their young talent will be Brewers for at least three more seasons.

Strengths

The Brewers' number on strength is the young talent that is starting to leave their mark on the NL. Early in the year, it was Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy leading the way. After Hardy cooled off, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart joined Fielder at the head of the pack, and ever since his return from a minor league demotion, Rickie Weeks has been hitting the cover off the ball. Their infield looks incredibly strong going forward even if Braun might be forced to the outfield due his faulty defense. His bat more than makes up for his defensive miscues as he'#### .325/.370/.639 and put himself at the front of the rookie class. Across the diamond, Fielder has been mentioned in the NL MVP race, though his chances are seriously diminished with his team out of the playoff race. At second base, Weeks was demoted to the minors after a disappointing July where he only hit .125/.279/.143 and was at .212/.330/.363 overall. After 6 games of hitting .455/.571/.682 at AAA Nashville, Weeks returned to the majors and has hit .277/.447/.553 in his time back and improved his overall line to a respectable .235/.375.430. Weeks seems to have turned things around and could be back on his way to the stardom he was expected to reach.

Out in right field, Corey Hart finally convinced Ned Yost that he deserves to play everyday at the end of May. In his time in right field, Hart has played very well defensively and hit .294/.352/.529 on the season. One quality that Hart brings to the table that fans don't expect from a 6'6 guy is speed. He's been successful on 23 steals in 30 attempts. I'm not a big fan of the steal as a weapon, but it does indicate that Hart has a well-rounded set of tools to work with.

Another one of the Brewers' strong suits is the rotation. Yost has had plenty of options to turn into the rotation even if some of them have had their problems. The staff ace is Ben Sheets, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few seasons, which is one of the key qualities teams look for in a staff ace. Lucky for the Brewers, they have a very strong #2 going forward in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was inserted in the rotation when Sheets got hurt and hasn't looked back. Gallardo has a 3.67 ERA over 110.1 innings this season and should be a lock for the 2008 rotation. With Jeff Suppan being his league-average self, he's a good choice as a team's #3 starter. With the remaining two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will have to choose from a group of Chris Capuano, David Bush, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, which isn't a bad group to choose from. Capuano had two good seasons in 2005 and 2006 (~4.00 ERA over 220 innings), but he has not had the same success this year with his ERA ballooning to 5.09, pushing him to the bullpen for a stretch and limiting him to 145 innings this year. On the other end of the major league service time spectrum, Parra enjoyed a tremendous amount of success this year. In one of his rare healthy seasons (although he made an appearance on the DL, it classifies as healthy for him), Parra dominated AA (2.68 ERA over 80.2 innings) and then AAA (1.73 ERA over 26 innings) before getting a call-up to the bullpen. During his time in the majors, he has made two starts (both quality starts) and thrown 14 innings out of the bullpen, accumulating a 3.76 ERA. It shouldn't be too hard to find two quality starters out of that group of five.

Concerns (changed from Weaknesses)

The Brewers' left field situation has been a convoluted mess as nine different players have seen time out there. Going into next year, their viable options are Geoff Jenkins ($9M team option), Kevin Mench (due arbitration), Gabe Gross, or a free agent. In 2007, the Brewers tried using a platoon, which worked to a certain degree of success, and they could opt to go that route for one more year. Kevin Mench crushed lefties to the tune of .316/.345/.561, and Jenkins hit righties at a .264/.328/.481 clip. Is Jenkins's left-handed half of a platoon worth the $9M he'd be owed if the team picked up his option or will they give him the $0.5M buyout? To put that into context, Gabe Gross his .246/.328/.455 against righties. If they cut ties with Jenkins, Gross isn't much of a drop-off. He gets on base at the same rate with basically the same amount of power.

Another option would be to venture into the free agent market, but the options are pretty limited. Keeping mind the fact that 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta could be up as early as midseason 2008 if everything goes right, the Brewers would only be looking for a short-term filler at the position. Using this knowledge while perusing the available options, I found Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton. Bonds isn't a very good fit for the Brewers, so we'll cross him off, which leaves Lofton. Lofton is getting up there in age and could choose retirement (I haven't heard anything on that front), but he fits the Brewers need. Against righties this year, Lofton has hit .315/.387/.454 and would bring that veteran element they would lose with Jenkins's departure.

The other concern for the Brewers is Francisco Cordero's free agency. If they are unable to re-sign him, they will most likely have to turn back to Derrick Turnbow as their closer. After an All-Star 2005 in which he had a 1.74 ERA over 67.1 innings, he had a terrible 2006. His 6.87 ERA that year prompted the acquisition of Cordero in the first place. This year, he has a more respectable 4.63 ERA over 68 innings, but that isn't what you'd like from your #1 option in the bullpen. Cordero should be the Brewers' #1 priority heading into the offseason. The only available alternatives I could think of were Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood.

Overall

Heading into 2008, the Brewers need to resolve their bullpen and left field situations. It is rare for me to say this, but their bullpen might be the bigger problem. Given these two concerns, it is pretty easy to say that the Brewers will be at the top of the NL Central for the foreseeable future fighting it out with the Cubs.