One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

The Colorado Rockies were the biggest surprise of the 2007 season. Everyone’s heard about their winning 21 of 22 and their 8-day layoff before the World Series, but are they here to stay?

Strengths

Leading up to opening day, the talk was that Todd Helton would be playing for the Red Sox in 2007, but those trade talks fell apart. Once the season began, Helton proved that 2006 was a fluke that can be chalked up to illness. His .320/.434/.494 line wasn’t back to his previous seasons, but it is in line with his 2005 decline to .320/.445/.534. At 34 years old, Helton is on the decline, and he isn’t getting any less expensive, but for the present, he’s still an asset at first base. On the other side of the diamond, Garrett Atkins started out slowly. After bottoming out with a .188/.259/.267 May, Atkins hit .349/.409/.532 post-All Star break (very similar to his 2006 rates) to reach his season line of .301/.367/.486. Next to Atkins, rookie Troy Tulowitzki had a tremendous debut with both the glove and the bat. Tulowitzki should win the gold glove award, although it wouldn’t surprise if he wasn’t famous enough to win the vote (how else can Jeter win three straight?). Tulowitzki got plenty of buzz during the postseason that he won’t be under the radar for the gold glove next season.

Matt Holliday was another player that saw a surge in popularity this postseason. A certain MVP candidate, Holliday hit .340/.405/.607 while playing okay defensively in a spacious home outfield. The only bad news for the Rockies is that Holliday only has two more seasons before free agency. Across the outfield, Brad Hawpe slightly improved his numbers from last year (.293/.383/.515 in 2006 to .291/.387/.539 in 2007), but he still can’t hit lefties as his .220/.295/.398 line against them attests. If you mix Hawpe with Ryan Spilborghs, you’ve got an outstanding right field platoon. Spilborghs has hit lefties for a .338/.395/.510 clips in his major league career. Once you add in Hawpe’s .315/.418/.585 clip against righties this year, the Rockies would be a dominant force in right field.

If the Rockies get a lead, their bullpen has two strong options going forward: Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes. Fuentes had been the closer since 2005, but he lost his job to Corpas around the All Star break. In a ten-day span, Fuentes gave up 10 earned runs in only 4.1 innings before being placed on the DL for just over a month. If you remove that horrid span, Fuentes managed a 1.74 ERA over 57 innings. However, Corpas has taken the job and run with it, posting a 2.08 ERA over 78 IP. This left-right combo in the bullpen will only get one year together unless Fuentes is signed to an extension as he becomes a free agent next offseason.

Getting that lead to the bullpen has always been a problem for past Colorado teams, but they have finally been able to get some productive arms in the starting rotation led by Jeff Francis. Other than Francis and Aaron Cook, the rest of the rotation will be filled out by their young guns, a couple of which who were seen this postseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. From watching Jimenez, it is evident that he has major league quality stuff, but he had trouble locating it in the strike zone. This year, he posted a 4.28 ERA over 82 major league innings, but that followed up a 5.85 ERA in 203 IP at AAA. Morales was much better as he used 112.2 AAA innings with an ERA of 3.51 to propel him into the major league rotation, where he posted a 3.43 ERA over 39.1 regular season innings. The remaining spot in the rotation will most likely be filled by Jason Hirsh, although Taylor Buchholz could be a fallback option. Despite the increased talent in the Colorado rotation, there’s still a tremendous amount of risk here.

Concerns

As I mentioned, Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger or less expensive. They tried trading him last offseason, and although I’d suggest them trying again, I doubt he’ll be as likely to waive his no-trade clause this time around. It’s a shame because then the Rockies could move Atkins to first base to make room for Ian Stewart. Instead, they have moved Stewart to second base this offseason to try to fill the void left by Kazuo Matsui’s impending free agency. If Stewart fails to make the transition, they’ll need to venture into the free agent market. They could go try to re-sign Matsui or go after one of Tadahito Iguchi and Luis Castillo. Yet another option is to let Jamey Carroll try to hit enough to make his defense an asset.

Another potential free agent departure is Yorvit Torrealba. With Chris Iannetta waiting in the wings, the Rockies should let Torrealba walk. Unfortunately, most World Series teams overvalue what got them there, and the Rockies could fall into that trap this year. Iannetta didn’t have a good season by any means, but over a full season, he can be expected to easily outproduce Torrealba at the plate. After all, Torrealba’s .255/.323/.376 line this year is a pretty low mark to pass. Just remember, Iannetta did hit .351/.447/.503 at AAA just one season ago.

With so many young arms expected to fill the rotation, the Rockies should try to find a quality starting pitcher in free agency. It could prove hard since some pitchers will probably still have reluctance to pitch at Coors Field, but relying on Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsh to hold down three spots in the rotation for the whole season is not a wise move.

The other concern that the Rockies must concern themselves with is signing Holliday to an extension. As a Scott Boras client, will Holliday break the trend and sign an extension instead of becoming a free agent? If I’m the Rockies, I have to try.

Overall

It took me a while to figure out what I think the Rockies should do. After all, they don’t have nearly as much young talent as the Dodgers, and you can’t forget about the Diamondbacks or the Padres. Then again, they don’t have Ned Colletti running the show. If they could move Helton, I’d do it, and the same goes for Holliday if they can’t get him signed to an extension. Since I don’t think Helton will agree to a trade now that they’ve been to the World Series, the Rockies should stay the course – replace Torrealba with Iannetta, hope that Ian Stewart can play second base, and acquire a good #2 pitcher to slot into the rotation.

I'm sure Mets' fans don't want to even think about baseball right now, but with their elimination from the playoffs today, I'm going to take a look at 2008 and beyond for the organization. As Nate Silver wrote earlier this week, the 2007 New York Mets have completed the 2nd worst collapse in baseball history. Back on September 13, the Mets had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and yet today, they were eliminated from contention.

Strengths

You can't talk about a New York team without talking about the great players on the left side of their infield. Whether it is Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter or David Wright and Jose Reyes, New Yorkers are spoiled with greatness on the left side. In their first years of their extensions signed last August, Wright and Reyes have hit .325/.417/.548 and .283/.356/.425 while combining for 112 stolen bases in 138 attempts.This is an extreme example of what internal development can provide you on the cheap. Did you know that Wright was selected with a compensatory pick from the Colorado Rockies-Mike Hampton signing?

Out in the outfield, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and Lastings Milledge returning for sure, and they could be joined by Moises Alou, depending on the Mets picking up his option and Alou not retiring. Milledge doesn't have an impressive line for a right fielder, but a 22 year old hitting .272/.341/.446 in his rookie season is pretty good. Granted, it was only 184 at bats, but it is a good showing nonetheless. With Shawn Green on his way out (unless the Mets want to pay him an extra $8M [$10M option - $2M buyout]), Milledge should be given the everyday right field job. Beltran always seems to have nagging injuries, but he has consistently taken the field during his career with 140+ games since 2000. After a career year in 2006, Beltran still hit .275/.352/.525 this season while playing a good center field. Over in right field, Moises Alou might be suiting up for his final season (if it hasn't already occurred). He has not managed to play more than 100 games either of the last two years, but he has been successful when he has played. His batting average was slightly inflated this year, but a return to his career line of .303/.369/.517 doesn't seem out of line (he's been above each of those marks at least twice out of the last three years) if he stays healthy. Since you can't expect Alou to stay on the field all year, a good fourth outfielder is necessary, and Endy Chavez can fill that role. He will never have another year like 2006, but he can be a useful fill-in for Alou when Moises needs rest or time on the DL.

The pitching rotation has shown that it provides quality innings when healthy, but it has rarely been completely healthy. When you have a 35 year old Pedro Martinez and 41 year old Orlando Hernandez, you can count on one of them needing time off at some point during the season. Adding to the team's age on the mound, 41 year old Tom Glavine has a player option for 2008. He is due $3M; if he chooses to come back for another season, he'll make another $10M. Despite Glavine's atrocious final outing this year, the Mets (and eventually Mets' fans will come back around) would like to have him back for another year. For the last two spots in the rotation, John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown that they can be productive major league starters. Maine had a 3.91 ERA over 191 innings, and Perez had a 3.56 ERA over 177 innings. Perez had a great season back in 2004 (2.98 ERA, 196 IP) before completing falling apart the last two seasons (5.85 and 6.55 ERAs). If he and pitching coach Rick Peterson can keep his mechanics together, he should continue to be a quality #3-type pitcher.

Coming out of the bullpen, the Mets had two good left-handed relievers: Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano. Wagner struggled down the stretch, but at the end of the year, he still had a 2.63 ERA over 68.1 innings. Pitching in front of Wagner in games, Feliciano managed a 3.11 ERA over 63.2 innings. This is a good start to a bullpen, but the Mets need to find the right-handed help for a full set.

Concerns

At catcher, both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro will be free agents. If the Mets are unable to bring either (or both) of them back, there are some options available. This offseason's free agent catcher class includes Michael Barrett, Castro, Jason Kendall, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, today's interim Yankee manager Jorge Posada, and Yorvit Torrealba. Obviously, Posada is the #1 option, but it would be hard for him to leave the Yankees and even harder to join the cross-town Mets. Their best option is probably one of their own, but not the one they've been starting. Ramon Castro is an okay catcher defensively, but he is coming off his best season with the bat. He hit .293/.340/.571 in 140 AB this season. Over the last three years, he has hit .257/.326/.463, which is pretty good for a catcher. However, if he hasn't been playing over Lo Duca and his .273/.312/.378 line, the Mets must have had a reason, which leads me to believe that he's also not a target for the starting spot. If you're not going to have a catcher under contract going into the offseason, this might be the best time to do so. Even if there is a lack of great options, at least there are options. If the Tigers buy out Ivan Rodriguez's contract, he would just add to the class.

Carlos Delgado declined greatly this season; he only hit .258/.332/.448. This could just be a sign that his decline phase has really kicked in at 35, or it could be a sign that he wasn't fully healthy coming off his surgeries in the offseason. Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome October 23 and surgery on his left elbow October 30 to correct for tennis elbow. If he hadn't fully recovered, then a healthy offseason would be good for him going into 2008. Unfortunately, that won't happen as he was hit by a pitch today that fractured a bone in his left hand. Hopefully, Delgado can rebound in 2008.

Midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is a free agent this offseason, and the Mets will need to replace him at second base. The starter before Castillo, Jose Valentin, is recovering from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and the Mets have a $4.3M option for 2008. At 37 and coming off this surgery, I can't see the Mets going into 2008 with him penciled in at second. Their options include Castillo, Valentin, Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kazuo Matsui. I'm sure that the Mets don't want to revisit the whole Kaz Matsui experience, but will they pursue another Japanese infielder in Iguchi?

To complement the left-handed relievers mentioned above, the Mets need to improve the right-handed side. Jorge Sosa was moved to the bullpen after time spent in the rotation this year, but he might need to fill in for the injury-prone starters from time to time. Rookie Joe Smith had a great start to the year by throwing 14 scoreless innings in April, but he has struggled at times this year. He could re-establish himself as a viable option. Another option is the rehabbing Duaner Sanchez. Sanchez missed all of 2007 after shoulder surgery. He had a 2.60 ERA in 2006 before missing the last two months and the playoffs with an earlier shoulder injury. If he can return to that form, the Mets' problem is fixed, but that's a big if.

Overall

The Mets have quite a few concerns to deal with this offseason for an 88 win team, but they shouldn't be hard for Omar Minaya to fix. The Mets should be contenders for the NL East crown again in 2008, and with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they should be contenders for quite a while.