I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the first 11 teams (by team name).

Houston Astros – D

Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke

Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick

I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline, and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among Astros transactions for some time.

 

Atlanta Braves – B-

Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark Teixeira

This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion. While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either. While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find a taker for Mark Kotsay.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – A

Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL

Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond

As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.

 

St. Louis Cardinals – D

While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700 at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.

 

Chicago Cubs – A

Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson

Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks – C

Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension

Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner

Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio

Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with a $15.5 million option for 2013

Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the $48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense. Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not delay the decision as long as possible?

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – I

Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan

Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche and RHP Bryan Morris

With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan, the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36 with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.

Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In 2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo than Blake and Ramirez.

 

San Francisco Giants – C

The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August. Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s going to be a while before there is.

 

Florida Marlins – C+

Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez

While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.

 

New York Mets – D+

Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner outfielder.

 

Washington Nationals – D-

Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension

Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch

Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada

I already covered the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal. Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?

In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch, the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you scratching your head.

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I should have the last five teams up by the end of the weekend.

Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one piece.

Impact Outfielders to be Traded

Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million, which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be looking to trade him.

Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.

Impact Outfielder to be Signed

Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign him and be a better team on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does, no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.

Contenders Needing a Corner Outfielder

The Indians are going through spring training with David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners. When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at .287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of .300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t, which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay atop the AL Central.

Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.

Just Play the Youngsters Already

I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here, but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the 1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him on the bench.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell. The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.

I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade, but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t know if Votto can play the outfield.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.

Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Recap

The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Unlike the team I covered yesterday, today's team is actually eliminated from the playoff chase. The New York Yankees only need one win or one Tiger loss to eliminate the Detroit Tigers. In the other league, the Los Angeles Dodgers are officially eliminated after last night's loss and Padre victory.

Strengths

Contrary to what Jeff Kent thinks, the youngsters are this team's greatest strength. Kent is frustrated and mistakenly taking it out on the young guys' inexperience, although the youngsters have been a lot better than the veterans they're replacing. Kent has hinted at retirement in the offseason, but if he chooses to return and the Dodgers exercise their $9M team option, he'll continue to be one of the best hitting second baseman in the league. The option should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to exercise, and given general manager Ned Colletti's affinity for veterans, it should be picked up.

As for the youngsters, there's catcher Russell Martin (.297/.380/.472 at 24), first baseman James Loney (.335/.384/.538 at 23), shortstop Chin-Lung Hu (.318/.337/.505 as a 23 year old in AAA and possibly the best defensive shortstop currently in the majors), third baseman Andy LaRoche (.309/.399/.589 as a 23 year old in AAA, including .365/.447/.817 since the All-Star break), outfielders Matt Kemp (.331/.364/.509 at 22), Andre Ethier (.288/.353/.458 at 25), and Delwyn Young (.337/.384/.571 as a 25 year old in AAA). Given the statistics, all seven of these guys deserve an everyday job in the majors. Once you get the scouting opinion, six of these seven deserve an everyday job (Delwyn Young is considered a fourth outfielder in the end). Taking those six along with Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre, it would be nice if they could find a way to get all but Pierre on the field everyday (teams need to learn that the ability to get on base is more important than the ability to take the next one). However, that would leave them with five infielders and two outfielders, which keeps Pierre in the lineup. So who gets kept out of the everyday lineup? It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dodgers make the mistake of 2007 all over again and play Nomar Garciaparra, Pierre, Furcal, and Kent at the expense of LaRoche, Hu, and Young. It would be nice to see the team bench Garciaparra and trade Furcal for some pitching help since you can never have too much of that.

Moving to the rotation, the Dodgers are hoping for Jason Schmidt to make a full recovery in time for spring training, but everyone rehabs differently. Since Schmidt suffered a shoulder injury, his velocity will let you know if he's ready. The rest of the rotation will be made up of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and 23 year old Chad Billingsley (that Logan White really knows how to run a scouting department). The fifth spot in the rotation could be up for grabs among Esteban Loaiza, Mark Hendrickson, and Eric Stults. If you're wondering where all the young arms are (other than Billingsley), 19 year old Clayton Kershaw is regarded as the best left handed pitcher in the minor leagues, if not the best regardless of handedness. Kershaw made it up to AA, but after only five starts there, he's probably due to return to Jacksonville for next year. Splitting time between Low-A and AA, he had a 2.95 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 122 innings.

In the later innings, the Dodgers have turned to Joe Beimel, 23 year old Jonathan Broxton, and Takashi Saito to hammer things down, and they haven't disappointed. Beimel will be due arbitration, and I think Saito hasn't even reached arbitration yet. Given that, all three will be back next year and could be joined by 23 year old Jonathan Meloan. Meloan has not pitched well in his four innings in the majors, but at AAA, he dominated with 91 strikeouts and a 2.03 ERA over 66.2 innings.

Weaknesses

Other than the aforementioned fifth starter spot and Colletti's affinity for experience over talent, the Dodgers don't have many weaknesses. Sometimes, a great scouting department really makes the general manager's job much easier.

Overall

The Dodgers are set up well for both 2008 and the foreseeable future. Following next year, they'll have some decisions to make with Kent (free agency), Lowe (free agency), and Penny (2009 team option for $8.75M), but the Dodgers are in an enviable position going forward.

In another story that is far from breaking news (see last post regarding Homer Bailey, which turned out right), Juan Pierre is downright terrible. But I could have told you that years ago as he hasn't had an OBP over .330 since 2004. Anyway, I'm watching the Mets/Dodgers game on CW11, and they mentioned that Jack McKeon always batted Pierre leadoff and Luis Castillo second. Now that Grady Little is batting Juan Pierre second, they think that second is better suited to Pierre's tastes and even use OBP as a reason. However, if he doesn't have an OBP good enough for leadoff, why is it all of a sudden good enough for second?

I took the Dodgers lineup from Sunday and plugged it into the great Lineup Analysis tool available over at Baseball Musings. Here are the results.

Actual Lineup

Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Luis Gonzalez
Nomar Garciaparra
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Eric Stults

Lineup Analysis Best Lineup

Luis Gonzalez
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Nomar Garciaparra
Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Eric Stults

I'm surprised that Furcal is placed in the seven spot, but further inspection makes me believe that he is best suited there. Nomar, Furcal, and Pierre all have lower OBP than the rest of the lineup, so it makes sense that they're at the bottom of the lineup, consuming the fewest at-bats. One interesting by-product of this lineup is that Furcal and Pierre are freer to run at the bottom of the order because the risk is lower without the big bats coming up, and the reward isn't as minimized as the risk because the on-base guys are coming up at the top of the order. You don't need power guys to drive in guys from second after their steals. A single will bring them home just as well as a double or homer.

While I did use the analysis tool in trying to find the optimal lineup, it should be noted that their actual best lineup would look something like this.

Optimal Lineup

James Loney
Matt Kemp
Luis Gonzalez
Russell Martin
Wilson Betemit
Andre Ethier
Rafael Furcal
Jeff Kent
Pitcher

The Dodgers should just realize that the Pierre and Nomar signings are sunk costs, just as they were when the ink was still wet. Bench those two guys and play the better young players (Kemp and Betemit), who on top of being better also have potential to get even better. Betemit has gotten a raw deal due to his low batting average, but his OBP and SLG (.366 and .497) haven't taken the same hit. Just as they were at the start of the season and just as they were at the time of the signings, Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra are overrated and deserve to be on the bench watching Matt Kemp and Wilson Betemit put nearly one more run on the board every night (5.565 to 4.770 runs per game according to the Lineup Analysis tool).