The Houston Astros are 12 GB of the Cubs in the division and 10 GB of the Cardinals in the Wild Card. To make matters worse, the Astros would have to pass four teams to claim the division and six teams to claim the Wild Card. They’ve been outscored on the season by 49 runs, and they’ve actually outperformed their underlying metrics. According to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus, their chances of making the playoffs are less than one percent. So why are they trying to improve their 2008 team?

Sometimes, teams make decisions that defy logic. While it’s possible that the Astros can come back and make the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely. For that reason, the Astros would be better off playing for 2009, or are they?

Ages 27, 28, and 29 are generally considered players’ prime years. On the Astros’ current roster, there are only five guys in their pre-prime years: Wesley Wright, J.R. Towles, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Oscar Villarreal. If the Astros keep their current roster around for 2009, they can be expected to be even worse than they are in 2008. To compete in 2009, they’d probably have to bring in a new outfielder to replace Bourn and a couple of starting pitchers. With that being unlikely, that leaves the Astros with two options: play for 2008 or Billy Beane the roster.

In situations like this, I’d rather see the team follow in the footsteps of Billy Beane and blow up the roster, but that’s not completely possible. Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee have full no-trade clauses through 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. With those no-trade clauses, the Astros can’t enter complete rebuilding mode. Since they’re unlikely to contend in 2008 or 2009 and they can’t enter rebuilding mode, the Astros are in no man’s land. So what are the Astros to do?

In my opinion, they should sell off what they can: infielders Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, Kazuo Matsui, and Mark Loretta and pitchers Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail. Once those players go, you might be able to convince Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee to waive their no-trade clauses. This is the only way I see the Astros reviving their franchise and building something special.

Is there anything more revealing about the current state of the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding bullpen to finish 90-72.

Strengths

 That young, up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually, when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle, Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys, Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with young, inexpensive talent.

In addition to the young players that graduated to the major leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008. Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity and contract status could bring back something valuable.

That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal, and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M ($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season), Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and .270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.

All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes, Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.

Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in 236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61 appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents for another five seasons.

Concerns

Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb, Johnson, Davis, and Owings.

If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out 38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of 2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his major league problems in 2008.

Overall

Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division should be fun to watch for a while.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed, Rotisserie League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

I'm not going to make guesses at who will end up as closers where they are up in the air, so the rankings will have only a player if he is currently their team's closer.

Replacement Level
3 W, 12 SV, 51 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

First Tier
1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
2. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays
3. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Billy Wagner, New York Mets

Second Tier
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
6. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics
7. Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies
8. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
9. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres
10. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals
11. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers
12. Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers
13. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
14. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies
15. Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros

If you take Gagne, make sure to handcuff him with Akinori Otsuka. I thought about dropping Lidge down to the next tier, but his stuff is still very good. Is Albert Pujols really powerful enough to ruin a former top-notch closer?

Third Tier
17. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles
18. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
20. Armando Benitez, San Francisco Giants
21. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers

Handcuff Jonathan Broxton to Saito. I would say the same for Joel Zumaya and Jones, but Fernando Rodney is still in Detroit as well.

Fourth Tier
22. Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates
23. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians
24. Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves
25. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
26. Octavio Dotel, Kansas City Royals

If Wickman falters, keep an eye on who gets tapped to take his place. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are both great pitchers. Will they go to Gonzalez because he has closer experience, or Soriano because Gonzalez can be used to match up with lefties in the earlier innings?