Easily the hardest team to figure out going into the offseason is the New York Yankees. There are all kinds of questions surrounding the club, and it’s not just your typical New York hype. Will they bring back Joe Torre? Will Alex Rodriguez opt out? Will Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte return? Let’s get to it.

Strengths

In terms of both payroll flexibility and pure talent, the pre-arbitration starting pitchers are the biggest strength on the Yankees. With Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees have four starting pitchers with at least 4 years of service time left before they are eligible for free agency. While all four won’t start the year in the rotation (although you never know, Carl Pavano did start opening day), they will all most likely get a few major league starts in 2008.

Also among the pre-arbitration players on the Yankees are Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. Cano has now put up back-to-back great seasons at second base. Although his batting average fell off from the spectacular .342 of last year to .306 this year, his on-base percentage (.365 to .353) and isolated power (.183 to .182) stayed relatively the same. Meanwhile, Cabrera took over the center field job this season and proved that he could be an effective major league center fielder, but his walk rate did plummet from last year’s 10.9% to 7.3% in 2007. If he can regain those walks, he’ll be an asset on the field as well as in the Yankees’ checkbook.

Flanking Cabrera in the outfield will be two of Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon. Of course, this is assuming that Abreu’s $16M club option will be exercised. Given the low risk of one year deals and the value that Abreu provides on the field, exercising his option should be a foregone conclusion.

Moving on to ... wait, I’m forgetting someone … let’s see, I’ve covered the rotation, the outfield, Cano ... Oh yeah, the captain Derek Jeter will be back in pinstripes for 2008. Despite his defensive shortcomings, Jeter is still a spectacular player to build a team around.

Concerns

Where should we start? The mainstream media seems to have the Torre situation well-covered, so we’ll start with A-Rod. As everyone has heard over and over, Alex Rodriguez and the best agent in baseball Scott Boras are expected to opt out of his 10-year, $252M contract following the World Series. Brian Cashman has stated that the Yankees will not pursue Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out. If they’re unable to sign him to an extension beforehand, I find this hard to believe. If Rodriguez isn’t a Yankee next season, the only other guy on the free agent market is current Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell. Wilson Betemit is the in-house option (some teams wouldn’t consider this a bad thing).

Moving up the age spectrum, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte have made it known that they will be influenced by the Torre decision. Posada is coming off the best year of his career at 35 and will be looking for a multi-year deal. If he does listen to other teams in the offseason, he will be the best catching option on the market. Other options are Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, and Yorvit Torrealba.

Can anyone else see Mariano Rivera in a uniform other than the Yankees? Neither can I, but if Torre is let go, it wouldn’t surprise me for Rivera to leave as well. He didn’t like the way they treated Bernie Williams or his own contract situation back in March. If Rivera doesn’t come back, who will be left in the bullpen? There aren’t many options on the free agent market, and the only options for the closer’s role within the organization are Joba Chamberlain (please leave him in the rotation) and Kevin Whelan. Rivera survived off his cutter, and Whelan is a fastball specialist, throwing four different variations. That transition would seem fitting to me. Whelan just might not be ready to make that jump yet. The free agent reliever merry-go-round features Francisco Cordero with Octavio Dotel (if he opts out of his contract), the wild card Kerry Wood, and the recently ineffective Eric Gagne.

Despite the young starters, the rotation could still need some work. Andy Pettitte has a $16M player option for next season. As mentioned before, his decision might hinge on whether or not Joe Torre returns. At 35, he’s probably not done, but he could be done as a Yankee. I’ve already mentioned four other starters that the Yankees could use, but given their youthfulness, the Yankees probably shouldn’t rely on all three of the unproven youngsters. The biggest reason is to keep the innings total down for each of their arms. If Pettitte, Wang, and Mike Mussina are all in the rotation next season, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy could be rotated between the rotation and the bullpen to limit their innings and keep their arms healthy. Without Pettitte, that becomes hard and if they aren’t ready to go back down the Pavano trail, another option is to sign one of Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers, or Curt Schilling. All three should be looking for relatively short (1-, 2-, or 3-year) deals and would slot right into Pettitte’s spot in the above example.

Right now, they have Jason Giambi, Matsui, Cabrera, Damon, and Abreu to fill the 1B, OF, and DH roles, but the Yankees have never trusted Giambi’s atrocious defense at first base. If they don’t want to play one of the outfielders there, Giambi has no spot and needs to be traded. With only one year and $26M (or two years and $43M) left on the deal, his contract isn’t quite the albatross it once was. If the Yankees chip in a little cash to move him, there will be a market for his services. To replace him, the Yankees could always bring back Doug Mientkiewicz. On the other hand, if they want to bring in a real first baseman (you know, one that can hit), they could always pursue someone like Scott Hatteberg or Adam Dunn (if the Reds buy out his option; anything’s possible – they already hired the assassin at manager).

Overall

Given the loyalty of Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte to Torre, it would be a mistake to get rid of him now. Losing Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte would be hard to overcome for any organization, even one with the financial ability of the Yankees. Supply is low on the free agent market, and these guys would be hard to replace. Add to it the A-Rod situation, and it could be meltdown time for the nuclear reactor known as the New York Yankees. Cashman won’t let this actually happen, but I can’t remember the Yankees ever putting themselves in a position this risky before.

We're back with another shot at the fantasy positional rankings, starting up again with catchers. I looked at my past leagues to find that it takes about 18 runs, 7 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, and .002 points in batting average to move a spot in each category. For catchers, the replacement level is updated to 57 runs, 14 home runs, 60 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a .278 batting average.

First Tier
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer tops the list with a huge advantage in runs and batting average while being above average in RBI and SB.

Second Tier
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
McCann broke out last year, displaying big power numbers for a catcher. He should be good for an advantage in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

Third Tier
3. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Martinez doesn't quite keep up with McCann as he hits for a lower average with fewer home runs.

Fourth Tier
4. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
5. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
After looking at the numbers, I've decided that I was ranking Barrett much too low and have bumped up to fifth. While Barrett was having a great season, Johjima proved that he was able to come from Japan and produce as they both provide a good supply of runs, RBI, and AVG.

Fifth Tier
6. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Hernandez and Rodriguez will produce an average number of runs and RBI. But while Hernandez gives slightly more home runs, the difference is offset by Pudge's ability to steal bases and hit for average.

Sixth Tier
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Mike Piazza, Oakland Athletics
10. Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh Pirates

All five of these guys are very close to replacement level. While Varitek might as well take the title Replacement Fantasy Catcher as he is at replacement level across the board, the other four have advantages and disadvantages that should be considered if you are choosing between them. Each of them has some advantages: Posada - R, RBI; Piazza - HR, RBI; Martin - R, SB; and Paulino - AVG. These advantages are offset by their weaknesses: Posada - AVG; Piazza - R, AVG; Martin - HR, RBI; and Paulino - HR. All things considered, these five catchers have similar value in your typical fantasy league.

Seventh Tier
13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
14. Miguel Olivo, Florida Marlins
15. Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets
16. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Pierzynski is just slightly below the Varitek (replacement) level across the board. Olivo's extra stolen bases are severely offset by his low batting average, Lo Duca's lack of power places him in this category, and Molina's plodding on the basepaths limits his run scoring ability. These limitations drops these four guys into the top of the list of replacement players.

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That's the initial list. Again, I'll take any comments, complains, suggestions, etc. into consideration for a future revision of the list.

 

Before delving into the rankings, I'd like to let you know the format I am using. Although I am listing them in a ranking format, I am going to stress that I am not so worried about the individual rankings. (i.e. shouldn't Player A be listed ahead of Player B?) What am I looking for? Putting guys into groupings. This approach will demonstrate where there is a drop-off at positions. In this way, you have a better idea of when you should draft a particular position. If there is only one player in a tier at 3B and four players left in a tier at 2B, it's probably a better idea to grab the 3B. Keep in mind I'd like to hear differing opinions about players, especially if you think I've severely over- or under-rated him. Now we begin behind the plate...

1st Tier

1. Joe Mauer

2. Brian McCann

3. Victor Martinez

2nd Tier

4. Russell Martin

5. Kenji Johjima

3rd Tier

6. Ivan Rodriguez

7. A.J. Pierzynski

8. Ramon Hernandez

9. Jorge Posada

10. Michael Barrett

11. Mike Piazza

4th Tier

12. Jason Varitek

13. Gerald Laird

14. Rod Barajas

5th Tier

15. David Ross

16. Dioner Navarro

Feel free to comment and I might change things around if you convince me. The list might be a changing list to become more of a consensus listing.