In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model presented in Baseball Between the Numbers to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data, there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:

From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really contenders.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th in the voting?

On to the NL:

There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s) mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under $17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.

Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million behind Holliday.

In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs, does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Angels were completely shut down in the postseason by the Boston Red Sox. En route to getting outscored 19-4 over three games, the Angels had to deal with key injuries. Vladimir Guerrero had a triceps strain going into the series, and a hit by pitch resulted in shoulder problems. Garret Anderson had an eye infection heading into the playoffs, and his performance suffered accordingly. However, there is good news moving forward as every key component of this year’s team is returning (unless you consider Bartolo Colon a key component – I don’t).

Strengths

The top of the rotation was great during the regular season. With John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Kelvim Escobar coming back, the Angels have three spots covered for next season. The three star pitchers are backed up by a very good relief trio of Justin Speier, Scot Shields, and Francisco Rodriguez. Shields has seen a decrease in innings four straight years as he’s shifted from long relief/spot starter to set-up man, and he also set a career high in ERA this year at 3.86. Usually, a career high is a good thing, but not here. These things happen as players age, but even Shields’s worst performance was still pretty good.

I’ve heard many people talk about Vladimir Guerrero being in decline, but his numbers don’t tell quite the same story. In 2006, Vlad hit .329/.382/.552. This year, he hit .324/.403/.547. On a rate basis, he actually improved due to the increased OBP. Add this to the fact that he only had 33 fewer plate appearances this year, and you end up with Vlad having a better year this year than last year. One could argue that he has declined from his peak, and that’s definitely true, but the talk I’ve been hearing would make you believe that he’s declined significantly since last year. Whether or not he is actually declining is a non-issue for 2008 because he’ll still be a force in the middle of the lineup.

Concerns

General manager Bill Stoneman has a mutual option for 2008 in which he can come back as either the GM or a consultant. How the Angels approach this offseason could depend on who is behind the wheel of the organization. At this time, it’s hard to tell if this will be a good or bad thing for the team down the road.

The back end of the rotation is the only major concern on the field, but even that isn’t that major. Right now, it appears like the fourth and fifth slots are Ervin Santana’s and Joe Saunders’s to lose. Santana worsened mightily this season as he saw his ERA go from 4.28 to 5.76. The reasoning is that Santana came down with a serious case of gopheritis. After giving up 21 HR in 204 innings in 2006, he gave up 26 HR in just 150 major league innings this year. If that problem can be corrected before next April, the Angels will have their rotation set up pretty nicely as they defend their division title.

Overall

The Angels should have a good shot at the AL West title for several years without making any major changes, but there have been rumors that there could be several major changes this offseason. It has been rumored that owner Arte Moreno could throw money at Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Johan Santana on the free agent and trade markets. Imagine a middle of the order with A-Rod, Bonds, and Vlad. Imagine a rotation with Johan, Lackey, Weaver, and Escobar in the top four spots. Now imagine both being on the same team. They’d be World Series favorites if they made those changes, but even without them, they have a strong shot at repeating as AL West Champs.