Last Sunday, I wrote about the flawed All-Star selection process. Before getting into today’s topic, I want to respond to a few comments from last week. First, I used Joe Crede as the example because Alex Rodriguez should have been a unanimous selection at 3B. For Crede to be elected because some players couldn’t see that Rodriguez is the best AL 3B is ridiculous. I’ll admit that Jason Varitek would have been a better example than Crede, but Rodriguez was a better example than Joe Mauer.

The second issue is with the start of All-Star balloting. I have no problems with voting starting at the beginning of May. The point brought up against it was that Carlos Quentin wasn’t on the ballot because he hadn’t stepped in as starter yet. Actually, that’s false. Quentin has been starting since April 3rd. Instead of listing Quentin on the ballot, Jerry Owens was listed, and he hasn’t even had a single plate appearance in 2008. This isn’t really an issue of when the voting starts; it’s an issue of “how did MLB end up listing Jerry Owens on the ballot without a single plate appearance?”

The last issue is that several of the comments were complaining about the fan vote with many of you suggesting that the players and managers have a better idea of who should be on the All-Star team. That is the main topic of this post.

Instead of looking directly at the players the fans voted in, I decided to look at the rosters as a whole and find the players that don’t belong objectively. When people choose All-Stars, there are two separate paths that are usually used. The first is the most common, and that is to select the All-Stars based completely on the first half of the season. The second is the one I generally use, and that is to pick the players that are most likely to put together the best season, which takes into account both their season-to-date stats and expectations on whether or not they’re likely to keep it up. For example, Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun are performing similarly, but Braun would get my vote well before Ludwick would. Back to the objective process, I wanted to incorporate both of those selection methods, so using the players’ WARP totals from 2005 to 2008 (minor league numbers included), I computed the average 2008 WARP and the average 2005-to-2008 WARP for the All-Stars. I have listed all of the players that have WARP totals worse than one standard deviation below average in either category.

Poor All-Star Selections by 2008 WARP: Joe Crede, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner

Poor All-Star Selections by 2005-to-2008 WARP: Justin Duchscherer, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Dioner Navarro, Joakim Soria, Edinson Volquez, Kerry Wood

Poor All-Selections by Both Methods: Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, George Sherrill, Brian Wilson

Let’s look at how those players made the All-Star team, starting with those selected by the fans.

Poor Fan Selections: Josh Hamilton, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano (4 out of their 17 selections, or 23.5%)

Poor Player Selections: Joe Crede, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Joakim Soria, Jason Varitek, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Kerry Wood (9 out of 33, or 27.3%)

Poor Manager Selections: Justin Duchscherer, Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Dioner Navarro, George Sherrill, Billy Wagner (6 out of 12, or 50%)

The data suggests that the managers are the ones screwing up. If we want to look at just the players that don’t are worse than one standard deviation below average in both categories, that’s one player selection and three manager selections. No matter how I look at the data, it doesn’t appear to me that it’s the fans screwing up.

Looking at it more subjectively, Varitek, Crede, Guzman, and Sherrill are the players that don’t belong on the All-Star team. As I’ve already stated, I think Varitek and Crede were selected because Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez were close to unanimous selections at their positions, which resulted in Varitek and Crede only needing a handful of player votes to make the team. This is a problem that needs fixed. Guzman is the Nationals’ rep, and looking at their roster, there’s not really anyone else to pick. I have no problem with requiring one player from each team even when it means that Cristian Guzman is a 2008 All-Star. Likewise, Sherrill is the Orioles’ rep, but Brian Roberts would have been a much better selection. If Roberts were selected instead of Sherrill, the 12-pitcher restriction would have knocked Dioner Navarro off the team. Roberts and CC Sabathia (an AL player at the time) are better choices than Sherrill and Navarro. In total, I find that to be two bad choices by the player vote process (not the players), one bad choice by necessity, and one bad choice by Terry Francona.

If two bad choices were in fact by the player vote process, how do we go about fixing it? As I suggested last Sunday, I think it can be fixed with one easy change: make the players vote for two players at every position. That should remove any chance of a player making the All-Star team because someone else (Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez) was a near-unanimous selection.

Oh, and we should have Senator Mitchell look into how Jerry Owens got listed on the All-Star ballot.

Now that the All-Star teams have been announced, you have probably seen and will see articles complaining about All-Star snubs and/or undeserving All-Stars. This is inevitable no matter what. While I surely don't agree with all of the selections and non-selections, it is the process I want changed. This year, it is Joe Crede's selection that demonstrates this best. Let me repeat. I'm not upset with the fact that Crede was selected; I'm upset with the process.

So how exactly was Crede selected to the All-Star team? Much like the fans vote for the All-Star team, the players also vote. If the fans' selection and the players' selection are identical, the players' second choice is selected to the All-Star team. Now, if we were to examine the players' voting results (which I don't think are released), I'd imagine that over 90% of the players voted for Alex Rodriguez at 3B. Since the fans selected Rodriguez, it goes to the players' second choice. Let's say that 95% of players chose Rodriguez. That means that the players' second choice received less than 5% of the vote. Going deeper into that and assuming that all players were voting for who they thought was the best AL 3B, we are looking at the 5% of the player population that think Alex Rodriguez is not the top AL 3B. Should we really be relying on those players to make an All-Star selection?

Putting that aside, just how many votes did Joe Crede receive? If we're using the above example, 5% would mean that there were only 38 votes for non-A-Rod third basemen. Let's say they were nearly split between Mike Lowell and Crede. That means that Crede would have only needed 20 votes to make the All-Star team. Now, if we consider other percentages of A-Rod votes (as shown below), you'll see that a second selection at a position with a clear #1 still doesn't require a whole lot of votes. Basically, with Alex Rodriguez being the clear #1 AL 3B, it's very easy for an undeserving player to be selected to the All-Star game. Consider this: AL 3B Frank Cheater could slip his teammates a few bucks to have them vote for him. That's 25 votes going his way. If most votes are for Rodriguez, Mr. Cheater could slip his way onto the All-Star team. I certainly don't think anyone has ever done this, but it's certainly possible for a player to do this when there's a clear #1 at his position.

95% => 2.5%, or 20 votes, required for selection
90% => 5%, or 38 votes, required for selection
85% => 7.5%, or 57 votes, required for selection
80% => 10%, or 75 votes, required for selection

If the idea is to include both the fans' and the players' opinions, there are a couple different ways to tweak the current system to make it better. [1] Only include the players' first selection. If it's the same as the fans', then that leaves one more roster spot for the manager to select a player. OR [2] Have the players vote for twice as many guys as the fans. In this way, no one will get selected while receiving less than 100 votes as I suspect Crede has.

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Official Birk's Blog Announcement: The Buyer or Seller series has been canceled. Birk's Blog HQ simply doesn't have the resources to continue its production. We thank you for your support.

Back to being serious, I find that people are more interested in what teams are going to do and not what I think they should do. My hope was to generate discussion about the teams and what they should do. While that was successful for the Mariners and Cubs, the other 5 posts have had very little response.

Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projected the White Sox to have a 72-90 season, which made Paul Konerko jokingly say, "Well, we're screwed now. I guess we'll just have to battle through." Since the White Sox are now on pace to finish with 69 wins, it looks like this joke has become reality. On the south side of Chicago, their chances of making the playoffs haven't technically ended, but their statistical chances over a million simulations ended back on August 27, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.

The Good

Not a whole lot here. Despite experiencing a drop-off in his strikeout rate, Bobby Jenks has significantly cut down on his walks and home runs allowed, and he even tied a record streak of retiring 41 consecutive batters. It could even be argued that Jenks deserves the record outright, since the first batter he faced in the streak grounded into a double play. In the rotation, Mark Buehrle's HR problem from 2006 has disappeared, and Javier Vazquez has figured out how to throw more than 75 pitches successfully during a start (his ERA after 75 pitches last year was 7.97, and this year a much better 3.18). After a mediocre 2006 with the Philadelphia AA affiliate Reading (4.66 ERA), he was much better at White Sox AA affiliate Birmingham this year with a 3.18 ERA. (Edit: This last sentence was about Gio Gonzalez.)

The Bad

Jermaine Dye followed up a career year with a resounding thud as he fell back to earth, hitting .252/.317/.491 after a .315/.385/.622 2006. Joe Crede followed suit as he "hit" .216/.258/.317 before having season-ending back surgery in June. You know, for a team that performed horribly after having high expectations coming into the year, they didn't have too many guys perform extraordinarily worse than could have been expected.

Looking to the Future

Heading into 2008, the White Sox need to stop sacrificing valuable offense in left and center field. They have started to play Fields in left field lately, which could signify that they plan on playing him there full-time next year. If he can begin to figure out major league pitching, that will be an upgrade over what they've gotten from the position this year. That also suggests that they plan on offering Crede arbitration. If his back is healthy, he should return to at least 2005 levels (the 30 HR from 2006 might be too much to expect). That would leave center field as the main free agent target, which lines up with quite a bit of talent (Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones) that will be available this winter.

All told, it might not matter if they get one of the FA CF because quite a few of their stars are getting old. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Dye have already started to decline, and they shouldn't be expected to produce as they once did. Once they get past the next couple years, this team could be in very bad shape. They just don't have the young talent to sustain their recent run of success. Hey, at least they got a World Series ring out of it. A lot of teams aren't that fortunate.

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.

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Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.