In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model
presented in Baseball Between the Numbers
to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy
Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams
have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the
value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve
done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have
been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data,
there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a
complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement
level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no
consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for
determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner,
Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not
making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a
playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:
From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin
Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I
actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in
wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than
Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really
contenders.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on
top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I
guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th
in the voting?
On to the NL:
There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL
side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s)
mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under
$17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.
Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was
surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for
fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million
behind Holliday.
In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP
selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad
as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player
was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs,
does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his
teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most
valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If
so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?
After a tremendous comeback to win the NL East, the Phillies
were run over by the streaking Colorado Rockies. To their credit, they have
quickly turned to offseason mode by re-signing Charlie Manuel as manager and
buying out the options on Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez’s contracts. With
several holes to fill, Pat Gillick has his hands full going into 2008.
Strength
Three-fourths of the infield is the easiest strength to spot
in Philadelphia. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the club
could keep plugging them in at first, second, and short through 2011 without
even having to consider a long-term contract extension. Following that season,
Howard will qualify for free agency for the first time, and Rollins’s contract
will end (assuming the Phillies pick up his 2011 option at $8.5M). To balance
out the offense, they’ll once again be joined by Pat Burrell out in left field.
Despite his bashing by fans and media, Burrell has been consistently good the
last three seasons. His OBP has been between .388 and .400, and his SLG has
been between .502 and .504 over that period.
Playoff teams usually have an ace that leads the way on the
pitching rubber, and the Phillies had that guy when Cole Hamels was healthy.
Hamels pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA. He was joined in the rotation at
the beginning of the season by current, and
future, closer Brett Myers. Myers pitched poorly in his three starts to
begin the year, accumulating a 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings, but can you really
come to any conclusions over just three starts? The Phillies decided that they
needed to fix their bullpen, so Myers moved to the pen. When Tom Gordon went
down, Myers stepped into the closer’s role and pitched well. Since his
conversion to relief work, Myers threw 53.1 innings and gave up only 17 earned
runs for a 2.87 ERA. He did so while striking out 10.8 batters, walking 3.0,
and giving up 0.7 HR per nine innings, which works out to a 2.79 FIP (nicely
fits his actual ERA).
Concerns
Aaron Rowand is yet another data point for the idea that
players perform better in contract years. Rowand beat his career averages
(.286/.343/.462) in every single category by hitting .309/.374/.515. He is well-regarded
for his defense as well. He enters the market along with fellow center fielders
Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron. If the Phillies are unwilling to
pony up the cash for one of the players, they could look internally. Shane
Victorino is returning as are Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Either Victorino
or Bourn could handle center field with the other handling right field against
righties. Against lefties, Manuel should try to get Jayson Werth as many at
bats as possible. Werth hit .375/.467/.591 against lefties this year and has hit
them at a rate of .284/.378/.486 over his career.
The Phillies’ main concern is the pitching staff. In the
rotation, Hamels will be joined by Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton.
Moyer will be 45, Kendrick only struck out 49 guys in 121 major league innings,
and Eaton gave up 30 HR and 71 walks in his 161.2 innings this season. All
three are question marks, and there’s still one spot left to fill. Their
departing free agent Kyle Lohse is quite possibly the best option on that particular
market. The Phillies will need to turn to the trade market to address this
need, but I’m not sure what they’ll be using to acquire other team’s talent.
There isn’t much top-level talent in the system. Phillies’ management will need
to get creative.
After (or before) the rotation gets fixed, Gillick will have
to upgrade the bullpen. Former closer Tom Gordon will be back as will Ryan
Madson. Madson strained his shoulder in late July, and it was rumored that he
could’ve returned had the Phillies advanced to the NLCS. Other than those two
and Brett Myers, there isn’t much good left to talk about returning from the
2007 pen. J.C. Romero is a free agent and has expressed a desire to return, but
it’s questionable if his smoke and mirrors routine (1.24 K/BB in Philadelphia)
will continue to fool hitters.
Overall
The Phillies have some work to do if they want to return to
the top of the division, but so do the other NL East teams. With at least four
years of their three great infielders and ace pitcher, the Phillies are
positioned to be contenders for a while, but they need to fix their massive
holes because they aren’t the only team positioned well in the NL East.
First Tier 1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets 2. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Second Tier 3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins 4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies 5. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles
Third Tier 6. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers 7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers 8. Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays 9. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers
Hall and Glaus obviously only qualify as shortstops, but they do provide mega-power at the position. They are held back by lack of RBI opportunities (Hall will probably bat second) and AVG, respectively.
Fourth Tier 10. Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals 11. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers 12. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez could be eligible at second in mid-April, but I'm in denial and listing him at SS. I just can't believe that the Nationals will actually choose to start Cristian Guzman over Ron Belliard. If Lopez qualifies at second, I would place him at the bottom of the second tier of second basemen.
Fifth Tier 13. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves 14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies 15. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
If J-Honey returns to 2005 form, he will zoom up the charts. If he performs like last year, he's not worth having in fantasy leagues. Somewhere in between sounds right to me.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
