Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projected the White Sox to have a 72-90 season, which made Paul Konerko jokingly say, "Well, we're screwed now. I guess we'll just have to battle through." Since the White Sox are now on pace to finish with 69 wins, it looks like this joke has become reality. On the south side of Chicago, their chances of making the playoffs haven't technically ended, but their statistical chances over a million simulations ended back on August 27, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.
The Good
Not a whole lot here. Despite experiencing a drop-off in his strikeout rate, Bobby Jenks has significantly cut down on his walks and home runs allowed, and he even tied a record streak of retiring 41 consecutive batters. It could even be argued that Jenks deserves the record outright, since the first batter he faced in the streak grounded into a double play. In the rotation, Mark Buehrle's HR problem from 2006 has disappeared, and Javier Vazquez has figured out how to throw more than 75 pitches successfully during a start (his ERA after 75 pitches last year was 7.97, and this year a much better 3.18). After a mediocre 2006 with the Philadelphia AA affiliate Reading (4.66 ERA), he was much better at White Sox AA affiliate Birmingham this year with a 3.18 ERA. (Edit: This last sentence was about Gio Gonzalez.)
The Bad
Jermaine Dye followed up a career year with a resounding thud as he fell back to earth, hitting .252/.317/.491 after a .315/.385/.622 2006. Joe Crede followed suit as he "hit" .216/.258/.317 before having season-ending back surgery in June. You know, for a team that performed horribly after having high expectations coming into the year, they didn't have too many guys perform extraordinarily worse than could have been expected.
Looking to the Future
Heading into 2008, the White Sox need to stop sacrificing valuable offense in left and center field. They have started to play Fields in left field lately, which could signify that they plan on playing him there full-time next year. If he can begin to figure out major league pitching, that will be an upgrade over what they've gotten from the position this year. That also suggests that they plan on offering Crede arbitration. If his back is healthy, he should return to at least 2005 levels (the 30 HR from 2006 might be too much to expect). That would leave center field as the main free agent target, which lines up with quite a bit of talent (Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones) that will be available this winter.
All told, it might not matter if they get one of the FA CF because quite a few of their stars are getting old. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Dye have already started to decline, and they shouldn't be expected to produce as they once did. Once they get past the next couple years, this team could be in very bad shape. They just don't have the young talent to sustain their recent run of success. Hey, at least they got a World Series ring out of it. A lot of teams aren't that fortunate.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
