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Another One Bites the Dust: Detroit Tigers
Sep 25, 2007 | 7:59PM | report this

After appearing in the 2006 World Series, expectations were high in the Motor City. After acquiring Gary Sheffield from the Yankees, expectations grew. Unfortunately, those expectations are going to go unfulfilled. With the next Yankee victory or the next Tiger loss, the Detroit Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff race.

Strengths

The offense is currently ranked third in the major leagues in runs scored, and with all of the productive players under contract for next year, they should remain a high-scoring team in 2008. Only two of their starters are free agents this offseason: Ivan Rodriguez and Sean Casey. Usually, excluding Pudge from the productive player group would result in a great deal of retaliation from others, but when you can't get your OBP over .300, it's hard to be productive. No one will argue that Rodriguez is still a great defensive catcher, and when you've got a crew of hitters around him, that's what makes him a worthwhile investment. At 35, you can't expect him to hit .347/.375/.667 like he did in 2000 with the Rangers, but if he can get back to last year's .300/.332/.437, that's pretty good for a catcher. Another year of .280/.293/.420 or worse will signify that even Pudge has to answer to Father Time eventually. If Pudge is your biggest positional problem, you must be doing something right.

The other free agent Sean Casey has spent years being horrible, but for some reason, his on-field performance gets overlooked in favor of his clubhouse leadership and ability to handle the media. It's been three years since Casey has had a productive season at the plate, and a defensive first baseman just isn't worth all that much. After hitting .296/.353/.396 this year, Casey appears to be headed out of Detroit with talk of shortstop Carlos Guillen moving over to first base. Guillen is one of the most underrated players today, and his .293/.354/.493 line has nearly 100 points in the SLG department over Casey. That will be an improvement. As far as replacing Guillen at shortstop, there has been a lot of talk of the Tigers acquiring Jack Wilson in the offseason. Wilson's defense is a big improvement over Guillen's, and his bat isn't any worse than Casey's. By replacing Casey with Wilson, they improve the defense without harming the offense.

Making up the heart of the Tiger offense are Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson has been talked about lately by being one of only a handful to accomplish 20 2B, 20 3B, 20 HR, and 20 SB in one season, and Ordonez is often mentioned in the AL MVP discussion. He doesn't have a chance of beating Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he proved that he is back to his pre-injury form. Joining Ordonez and Granderson in the lineup are Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Gary Sheffield. Polanco is putting up a huge season at 2B, and Sheffield has done well coming off of and dealing with his shoulder injuries. He's scheduled to have surgery in the offseason. With his age and his shoulder problems, it should be interesting to see how many more years he can maintain that tremendous bat speed he has. On the other hand, Inge seems to have lost the home run power he displayed in 2006, which appears to be a career year. With a career high of 16 home runs coming into the season, Inge hit 27 home runs last year, but he has only hit 14 this year. Having signed a four-year extension back in December, the Tigers are betting that he can turn it back around. Out in left field, the Tigers tried to push Cameron Maybin up to the big leagues this year, but at 20 years old, he doesn't look ready. After hitting .316/.409/.523 combined through three minor league levels, he's only hit .152/.220/.283 in the majors. He'll probably start 2008 at either AA or AAA and could possibly make his return midseason. Until that time, Marcus Thames will be the left fielder. Thames has always had power, but he needs to get on base more often.

Weaknesses

After a great 2006, the pitching staff has been the team's weakness this year and heading into 2008. It is more a question of durability than it is a question of talent. Justin Verlander has held up so far, but there have been question marks about his workload even before he made it to the major league club. The guy that is supposed to be his co-ace, Jeremy Bonderman, was shut down a few weeks ago due to right elbow inflammation. Bonderman was handled carefully throughout his development, but the second half of 2007 has been a disaster (7.38 ERA since the All-Star break). It makes you question if he was hiding the pain from the coaching staff for a while. While Nate Robertson has put together yet another solid season in the middle of the rotation, Kenny Rogers started the year on the DL and hasn't been as effective since making his return. He'll be a free agent, and the Tigers could be entering a transitional stage as they have a couple young arms coming up the ranks in Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens. Whether they re-sign Rogers or go with the young guns, the Tigers have several question marks here going forward.

The question marks don't end in the rotation. Todd Jones will be entering free agency, Joel Zumaya hasn't been the same since rupturing a tendon in his middle finger, and Fernando Rodney hasn't been the same this year. Jones has spent much of his career in a Tiger uniform so there might be some loyalty built up in that relationship, but relievers that have "proven" themselves as a closer generally command big money on the market. Zumaya had a 3.63 ERA before the injury but a 5.28 ERA after. Rodney has a 4.10 ERA over 48.1 inning this year after a 2006 season with a 3.52 ERA over 71.2 innings last year.

Overall

The Tigers have several question marks heading into 2008. First and foremost, they need their young pitchers (starters and relievers) to be healthy and effective. Additionally, the Tigers should try to keep Ivan Rodriguez and Todd Jones in Detroit. If Maybin can make his way back to the majors next year and prove himself when he gets called up, he'll be a big lift to the Tigers both offensively and defensively (he's a legit center fielder, who will be playing a corner). Things will need to improve next year for the Tigers to knock off the Indians and win their first division title since they won the AL East back in 1987.

Add a comment   categories: Detroit Tigers, Cameron Maybin, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Ivan Rodriguez, Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Sean Casey, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Nate Robertson
 
My AL All-Stars
Jul 02, 2007 | 7:15PM | report this

If I were it up to me, I'd select these stars to represent the American League. Starters are marked with an asterisk

Catcher
*Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

First Base
*David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers

Second Base
*Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Third Base
*Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays

Shortstop
*Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers

Outfield
*Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox
*Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers
*Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins
Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals 

Bullpen
J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins
Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers


I have 31 players listed here with Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, Troy Glaus, and Gil Meche having been added due to the 1 player per team rule (Gagne is Teixeira's injury replacement). (Yes, I think Alex Rodriguez has outpaced his fellow third basemen so much that I didn't select another player until I needed a Blue Jay.)

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
1B Mark Teixeira
2B B.J. Upton
3B Troy Glaus
OF Curtis Granderson
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
RP Pat Neshek
RP Hideki Okajima
RP Eric Gagne

None of these guys have that strong of a case to be All-Stars that we should be complaining about them being excluded from the mid-season exhibition.

 All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
C Ivan Rodriguez and 2B Placido Polanco

No, I'm not picking on the Tigers, but how does Ivan Rodriguez belong as the AL starting catcher? He is terrible at getting on base. By Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Pudge ranks 9th among AL catchers, mostly due to his .293 OBP. There's quite a few AL catchers with batting averages higher than Rodriguez's OBP.

Final Vote
With three of my team's players up for selection in the final vote, I have to go with the starting pitcher, Kelvim Escobar. He has more of a major league track record than either Hideki Okajima or Pat Neshek, and starting pitchers just have a much greater effect on their own teams than relief pitchers.

12 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Ivan Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers, MLB, All Star Game, Kelvim Escobar, Pat Neshek, Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Bonderman, Roy Halladay, Ichiro Suzuki, Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Brian Roberts
 
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