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Another One Bites the Dust: Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 29, 2007 | 10:43AM | report this

Milwaukee's highly touted young position players shined through this year. They weren't able to hold onto a playoff spot, but this team isn't going away. Most of their young talent will be Brewers for at least three more seasons.

Strengths

The Brewers' number on strength is the young talent that is starting to leave their mark on the NL. Early in the year, it was Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy leading the way. After Hardy cooled off, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart joined Fielder at the head of the pack, and ever since his return from a minor league demotion, Rickie Weeks has been hitting the cover off the ball. Their infield looks incredibly strong going forward even if Braun might be forced to the outfield due his faulty defense. His bat more than makes up for his defensive miscues as he'#### .325/.370/.639 and put himself at the front of the rookie class. Across the diamond, Fielder has been mentioned in the NL MVP race, though his chances are seriously diminished with his team out of the playoff race. At second base, Weeks was demoted to the minors after a disappointing July where he only hit .125/.279/.143 and was at .212/.330/.363 overall. After 6 games of hitting .455/.571/.682 at AAA Nashville, Weeks returned to the majors and has hit .277/.447/.553 in his time back and improved his overall line to a respectable .235/.375.430. Weeks seems to have turned things around and could be back on his way to the stardom he was expected to reach.

Out in right field, Corey Hart finally convinced Ned Yost that he deserves to play everyday at the end of May. In his time in right field, Hart has played very well defensively and hit .294/.352/.529 on the season. One quality that Hart brings to the table that fans don't expect from a 6'6 guy is speed. He's been successful on 23 steals in 30 attempts. I'm not a big fan of the steal as a weapon, but it does indicate that Hart has a well-rounded set of tools to work with.

Another one of the Brewers' strong suits is the rotation. Yost has had plenty of options to turn into the rotation even if some of them have had their problems. The staff ace is Ben Sheets, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few seasons, which is one of the key qualities teams look for in a staff ace. Lucky for the Brewers, they have a very strong #2 going forward in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was inserted in the rotation when Sheets got hurt and hasn't looked back. Gallardo has a 3.67 ERA over 110.1 innings this season and should be a lock for the 2008 rotation. With Jeff Suppan being his league-average self, he's a good choice as a team's #3 starter. With the remaining two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will have to choose from a group of Chris Capuano, David Bush, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, which isn't a bad group to choose from. Capuano had two good seasons in 2005 and 2006 (~4.00 ERA over 220 innings), but he has not had the same success this year with his ERA ballooning to 5.09, pushing him to the bullpen for a stretch and limiting him to 145 innings this year. On the other end of the major league service time spectrum, Parra enjoyed a tremendous amount of success this year. In one of his rare healthy seasons (although he made an appearance on the DL, it classifies as healthy for him), Parra dominated AA (2.68 ERA over 80.2 innings) and then AAA (1.73 ERA over 26 innings) before getting a call-up to the bullpen. During his time in the majors, he has made two starts (both quality starts) and thrown 14 innings out of the bullpen, accumulating a 3.76 ERA. It shouldn't be too hard to find two quality starters out of that group of five.

Concerns (changed from Weaknesses)

The Brewers' left field situation has been a convoluted mess as nine different players have seen time out there. Going into next year, their viable options are Geoff Jenkins ($9M team option), Kevin Mench (due arbitration), Gabe Gross, or a free agent. In 2007, the Brewers tried using a platoon, which worked to a certain degree of success, and they could opt to go that route for one more year. Kevin Mench crushed lefties to the tune of .316/.345/.561, and Jenkins hit righties at a .264/.328/.481 clip. Is Jenkins's left-handed half of a platoon worth the $9M he'd be owed if the team picked up his option or will they give him the $0.5M buyout? To put that into context, Gabe Gross his .246/.328/.455 against righties. If they cut ties with Jenkins, Gross isn't much of a drop-off. He gets on base at the same rate with basically the same amount of power.

Another option would be to venture into the free agent market, but the options are pretty limited. Keeping mind the fact that 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta could be up as early as midseason 2008 if everything goes right, the Brewers would only be looking for a short-term filler at the position. Using this knowledge while perusing the available options, I found Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton. Bonds isn't a very good fit for the Brewers, so we'll cross him off, which leaves Lofton. Lofton is getting up there in age and could choose retirement (I haven't heard anything on that front), but he fits the Brewers need. Against righties this year, Lofton has hit .315/.387/.454 and would bring that veteran element they would lose with Jenkins's departure.

The other concern for the Brewers is Francisco Cordero's free agency. If they are unable to re-sign him, they will most likely have to turn back to Derrick Turnbow as their closer. After an All-Star 2005 in which he had a 1.74 ERA over 67.1 innings, he had a terrible 2006. His 6.87 ERA that year prompted the acquisition of Cordero in the first place. This year, he has a more respectable 4.63 ERA over 68 innings, but that isn't what you'd like from your #1 option in the bullpen. Cordero should be the Brewers' #1 priority heading into the offseason. The only available alternatives I could think of were Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood.

Overall

Heading into 2008, the Brewers need to resolve their bullpen and left field situations. It is rare for me to say this, but their bullpen might be the bigger problem. Given these two concerns, it is pretty easy to say that the Brewers will be at the top of the NL Central for the foreseeable future fighting it out with the Cubs.

4 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Milwaukee Brewers, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Ben Sheets, NL Central, Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Kenny Lofton, Geoff Jenkins, Gabe Gross, Kevin Mench, Corey Hart, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, Dave Bush, Kerry Wood
 
Another One Bites the Dust: St. Louis Cardinals
Sep 23, 2007 | 6:41PM | report this

Back when I did my NL Central Preview post, I got accused of being a Cubs fan that was "run[ninng] down the Cardinals out of [my] own jealousy," which I found funny since I'm not (and never have been) a Cubs fan. Back in that preview, I put the Cardinals third in the Central with an 83-79 record. Although they're guaranteed a losing record, they will most likely finish third, so that counts as 50% right, right?

Strengths

With Albert Pujols at first base, they have quite possibly the best player in the major leagues. He hasn't had the best season this year, but he puts up great seasons year after year, so that's what qualifies him as "quite possibly the best." At $48M over the next three years along with a club option for $16M in 2011, he is an incredible bargain. Next year will be his Age-28 season, which is when a lot of players have their best seasons, so it will be interesting to see if Pujols can top his normal .330/.430/.600 season. Although the 2006 World Series Champions are not going to be able to defend their title, they did get some good news from the guy behind the plate. Yadier Molina carried his 2006 postseason hitting into the 2007 season. In 2006, Molina hit .216/.274/.321, which he blew out of the water this year by hitting .275/.340/.368. The youngest Molina might finally be coming into his own at the plate to go with his superior defense behind it.

Elsewhere on the field, they have plenty of outfield depth. Now, they just need to find out if any of it is worth playing everyday for a full season. With Jim Edmonds in center when healthy, the Cardinals will divide the corner outfield playing time among Chris Duncan, So Taguchi (if they pick up his $1.1M option for 2008), Rick Ankiel, Scott Spiezio, Ryan Ludwick, and Skip Schumaker. Normally, the Taguchi decision would be easy as it is only $1.1M for a fourth outfielder, but with all of the other options, the 38 year old Taguchi might be allowed to walk. If they choose the latter option, that means Schumaker will have a roster spot next year as no one else can play an adequate center field in Edmonds' absence. With Edmonds' injury history, the Cards will need a replacement at some point. In an ideal situation, the Cards will just give the playing time to Duncan in left and Ankiel in right, but it could come down to who does better in that small sample they like to call Spring Training. Unfortunately, that means the Cards will have to keep 5 outfielders all year as Scott Spiezio is already under contract for 2008, but some quality help is on the way in Colby Rasmus. Rasmus will start the year at AAA after clubbing his way to a .275/.381/.551 at AA Springfield and could be up with the big league club midseason.

Every year, it seems like Dave Duncan is able to cobble together a good bullpen regardless of what pieces he's given, so even without knowing who will be replacing Russ Springer and Troy Percival (if they sign elsewhere), I'm willing to say that the bullpen is a strength. That could change if the Cards decide to turn down the $8M club option they have on Jason Isringhausen for next year.

Weaknesses

Other than catcher and first base, they have question marks all over the field. We've already covered those in the outfield, so looking at the rest of the infield, David Eckstein is a free agent, Scott Rolen is a severe injury risk, and second base has had performance-related question marks all season. Starting at the hot corner, Rolen has fought with shoulder problems since 2005. After playing in only 56 games in 2005, Rolen managed to play in 141 last year, but he really faded late in the year, hitting only .227/.299/.398 in September due to the aforementioned should problems. This year, he took the surgery route in mid-September after only hitting .265/.331/.398 on the season as he just could not hit for power. How he returns next year could tell us a lot about the rest of his career. He's a key to their chances.

At second base, St. Louis brought in Adam Kennedy on what seemed to be a great deal of 3 years and $10M after many productive years in Anaheim. Most players put up better numbers when they come over to the National League, but Kennedy mostly fell apart by hitting a mere .219/.282/.290. His replacements, Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan, haven't run away with the starting job either, so it will be interesting to see how the Cards approach this situation in the offseason.

Across the bag at shortstop, Eckstein is a free agent and, other than an aging Omar Vizquel, is the only good shortstop on the market. If the Cardinals want him back, they'll have to move quickly before another team sweeps him up.

Last offseason, St. Louis lost nearly all of its 2006 rotation to free agency. Jeff Suppan signed with the Brewers, Jeff Weaver signed with the Mariners, and Jason Marquis signed with the Cubs. All three got great deals from their respective teams, and in the long run, it is probably best that the Cards didn't re-sign them. The rest of last year's rotation was disappointing as well. Chris Carpenter only lasted one bad start before eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, and Anthony Reyes had a 6.08 ERA before being sent down in late May. Carpenter should be back in late 2008, and Reyes is back now (he isn't doing any better). Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper were in the bullpen last year, and they have been the club's best two starting pitchers all year. For the team's sake, they need to be able to duplicate their 2007 seasons next year.

Overall

The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals got a championship, and it's a good thing because they might be having some poor seasons coming up. Having talented players like Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter, and Wainwright on your roster provides you with a shot, but that requires each of them to stay healthy and productive, which isn't very likely over a 162-game season. In addition, their farm system is bereft of many great prospects other than Rasmus. Whether the great Walt Jocketty returns as GM next season or not, the farm system should be a top priority. Pre-free agency players are the greatest source of value in today's game, and every team needs to use that to their advantage. It is possible that 2008 will also see a new manager on the field as LaRussa's contract expires at the end of the season, and it has been rumored that he could retire. Ownership might not want to admit it, but the Cardinals appear to be entering rebuilding mode.

3 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, St Louis Cardinals, Chris Duncan, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, So Taguchi, Ryan Ludwick, David Eckstein, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Scott Spiezio, Jason Isringhausen, Adam Kennedy, Anthony Reyes, Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis
 
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