Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote “The Teflon Manager” Sunday about how Dusty Baker is “ill-suited to his personnel.” I couldn’t agree more. As a former Reds’ fan surrounded by actual Reds’ fans, I couldn’t help but laugh when they hired Dusty Baker. The Reds have four of the top 41 prospects in baseball, and all four will see time in the major leagues this year. Baker has a predilection for veterans at the expense of their more talented but unproven challengers. He also has been blamed for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Neither of these can be good for the development of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, or Johnny Cueto.

We’ll start with Joey Votto, who is a major subject in this blog and its comments. Baker wants Votto to become more aggressive than the take-and-rake approach that has made him the 21st prospect in baseball. Some people, such as an anonymous posted on the above blog, agree with this philosophy because “I'll take 50 walks and 200 hits over 150 hits and 100 walks any day.” I don’t think you’ll find anyone that disagrees with that statement. The problem is when you take a guy that gets 150 hits and 100 walks and try to turn him into a guy with 200 hits and 50 walks, you’ll probably end up with a guy that gets 160-170 hits and 50-60 walks. I’m not saying that Votto would get 150 hits and 100 walks, but the logic still stands. Dusty, please leave Votto alone. His approach has gotten him this far, and he’ll be better without your “help.”

With the two pitchers Bailey and Cueto, the worry is that Baker hasn’t learned his lesson from Wood and Prior. Only time will tell. As Nate Silver put it, “If the careers of Bailey and Cueto are ruined by high pitch counts, it will be Dusty who pulled the trigger–but the Reds who hired the assassin.”

When it comes to the top prospect in baseball Jay Bruce, Baker is so worried about having a leadoff hitter in the lineup that he’s ignoring the first step in making out a lineup: get the top 8 players out on the field. Jay Bruce split his time over three levels in 2007. He hit .325/.379/.586, .333/.405/.652, and .305/.358/.567 at High-A, AA, and AAA. The Reds kept challenging him by moving him up, and Bruce kept showing that he can hit. The competition in center includes Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel, and Norris Hopper. Patterson has a career OBP of .298, enough said. Freel’s career line is .270/.358/.378, so while he can get on base as well as Bruce, he doesn’t have the power that Bruce has. Hopper was 27 before he made it to the majors in 2006. Last year, Hopper saw significant time in the Reds’ outfield and hit .329/.371/.388; so again, he has the on-base ability of Bruce but not the power. Bruce is ready for the majors, but it won’t be surprising if he ends up back at AAA to start the year. As an example of what he can add to the Reds’ 2008 team, I have used PECOTA’s projections and Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis to estimate the Reds’ projected lineup with Baker’s likely choice in center Patterson and the Reds’ projected lineup with Bruce.

With Patterson:

1. Corey Patterson
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 4.845

With Bruce:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 5.024

They estimate Bruce to add nearly 0.2 runs per game to the Reds’ lineup, or 32.4 runs over 162 games. That’s equivalent to about 3 wins in the standings. I think it’s safe to say that their defensive difference isn’t worth that much.

Dusty Baker’s tendencies don’t fit the current profile of the Cincinnati Reds. Following the Reds’ 2007 season, their hopes for 2008 were high based on their four major league-ready top prospects. With Dusty Baker running the show, Reds’ fans should be worried.

I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.

Impact Center Fielders to Be Traded

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.

One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp, they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH. With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp as insurance.

Contenders Needing a Center Fielder

Atlanta Braves traded for Mark Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red Sox to trade Crisp.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s center field market won’t be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million to keep around for one more year.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in 2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.

Several players could make their way onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and Josh Hamilton.

Recap

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good 2008s.

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