Last Sunday, I wrote about the flawed All-Star selection process. Before getting into today’s topic, I want to respond to a few comments from last week. First, I used Joe Crede as the example because Alex Rodriguez should have been a unanimous selection at 3B. For Crede to be elected because some players couldn’t see that Rodriguez is the best AL 3B is ridiculous. I’ll admit that Jason Varitek would have been a better example than Crede, but Rodriguez was a better example than Joe Mauer.

The second issue is with the start of All-Star balloting. I have no problems with voting starting at the beginning of May. The point brought up against it was that Carlos Quentin wasn’t on the ballot because he hadn’t stepped in as starter yet. Actually, that’s false. Quentin has been starting since April 3rd. Instead of listing Quentin on the ballot, Jerry Owens was listed, and he hasn’t even had a single plate appearance in 2008. This isn’t really an issue of when the voting starts; it’s an issue of “how did MLB end up listing Jerry Owens on the ballot without a single plate appearance?”

The last issue is that several of the comments were complaining about the fan vote with many of you suggesting that the players and managers have a better idea of who should be on the All-Star team. That is the main topic of this post.

Instead of looking directly at the players the fans voted in, I decided to look at the rosters as a whole and find the players that don’t belong objectively. When people choose All-Stars, there are two separate paths that are usually used. The first is the most common, and that is to select the All-Stars based completely on the first half of the season. The second is the one I generally use, and that is to pick the players that are most likely to put together the best season, which takes into account both their season-to-date stats and expectations on whether or not they’re likely to keep it up. For example, Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun are performing similarly, but Braun would get my vote well before Ludwick would. Back to the objective process, I wanted to incorporate both of those selection methods, so using the players’ WARP totals from 2005 to 2008 (minor league numbers included), I computed the average 2008 WARP and the average 2005-to-2008 WARP for the All-Stars. I have listed all of the players that have WARP totals worse than one standard deviation below average in either category.

Poor All-Star Selections by 2008 WARP: Joe Crede, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner

Poor All-Star Selections by 2005-to-2008 WARP: Justin Duchscherer, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Dioner Navarro, Joakim Soria, Edinson Volquez, Kerry Wood

Poor All-Selections by Both Methods: Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, George Sherrill, Brian Wilson

Let’s look at how those players made the All-Star team, starting with those selected by the fans.

Poor Fan Selections: Josh Hamilton, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano (4 out of their 17 selections, or 23.5%)

Poor Player Selections: Joe Crede, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Joakim Soria, Jason Varitek, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Kerry Wood (9 out of 33, or 27.3%)

Poor Manager Selections: Justin Duchscherer, Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Dioner Navarro, George Sherrill, Billy Wagner (6 out of 12, or 50%)

The data suggests that the managers are the ones screwing up. If we want to look at just the players that don’t are worse than one standard deviation below average in both categories, that’s one player selection and three manager selections. No matter how I look at the data, it doesn’t appear to me that it’s the fans screwing up.

Looking at it more subjectively, Varitek, Crede, Guzman, and Sherrill are the players that don’t belong on the All-Star team. As I’ve already stated, I think Varitek and Crede were selected because Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez were close to unanimous selections at their positions, which resulted in Varitek and Crede only needing a handful of player votes to make the team. This is a problem that needs fixed. Guzman is the Nationals’ rep, and looking at their roster, there’s not really anyone else to pick. I have no problem with requiring one player from each team even when it means that Cristian Guzman is a 2008 All-Star. Likewise, Sherrill is the Orioles’ rep, but Brian Roberts would have been a much better selection. If Roberts were selected instead of Sherrill, the 12-pitcher restriction would have knocked Dioner Navarro off the team. Roberts and CC Sabathia (an AL player at the time) are better choices than Sherrill and Navarro. In total, I find that to be two bad choices by the player vote process (not the players), one bad choice by necessity, and one bad choice by Terry Francona.

If two bad choices were in fact by the player vote process, how do we go about fixing it? As I suggested last Sunday, I think it can be fixed with one easy change: make the players vote for two players at every position. That should remove any chance of a player making the All-Star team because someone else (Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez) was a near-unanimous selection.

Oh, and we should have Senator Mitchell look into how Jerry Owens got listed on the All-Star ballot.

After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)

While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’#### .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.

The Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the second time in four years, but this one seems to be more of a Theo Epstein construction than the last one. The transition to becoming a team based on its farm system is underway, and Theo looks to be continuing the Red Sox winning ways for many years to come.

Strengths

Well, for one, they’re the defending champions. Two, unlike their last World Series winner, most of this team is under contract for next year. Third baseman Mike Lowell is the only key player that is a free agent after Curt Schilling signed a one-year $8M deal, which can increase up to $13M if he earns all of the bonuses.

When talking about the Red Sox, the conversation usually starts at the middle of the lineup. When David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have been in the middle of the order for as long as they have, it’s hard not to start there. Both of these players were perceived to have slumped this year, but Ortiz’s “slump” was actually a career year. It might be the first year in four that he didn’t hit 40 home runs, but his OBP climbed up to .445, a huge jump from his previous career high of .413 set last year. Plus, his SLG only fell 15 points from .636 to .621. Hitting 52 doubles makes up for the drop in home runs. Meanwhile, Manny really did slump, having the worst year of his major league career since he had 53 at bats as a 21-year old. When your worst season is .296/.388/.493, you know you’re good. Papi and Manny were given ample opportunities to drive in runners because the Greek God of Walks Kevin Youkilis, and his .390 OBP, was batting in front of them.

PECOTA darling Dustin Pedroia overcame a slow start (.182/.308/.236 in April) to hit .317/.380/.442 and take home the IBA AL Rookie of the Year award. Pedroia wasn’t the only homegrown prospect to make an appearance for the Red Sox. He was joined by Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. Ellsbury started the year on fire at AA, where he hit .452/.518/.644 in 73 at bats, before cooling off at AAA. In 363 at bats in the International League, Ellsbury hit .298/.360/.380. During a September call-up, he again caught fire with a .353/.394/.509 line in 116 major league at bats. He wasn’t the only Red Sox rookie to have a hot start to his major league career as Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz posted ERAs of 1.77, 3.96, and 1.59 in AA (86.2 IP), AAA (38.2 IP), and MLB (22.2 IP). Delcarmen was up to stay in mid-June and proved he belonged with a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief innings. Last but not least, Lester spent the off-season recovering from lymphoma, and after proving his health in AAA Pawtucket, he rejoined the Red Sox rotation in late July and pitched his way to a 4.57 ERA in 63 innings.

Of course, Ortiz, Ramirez, Youkilis, and the youngsters couldn’t have done it without their outstanding pitching staff. Josh Beckett finished second in the IBA voting for AL Cy Young behind C.C. Sabathia, but finishing second for the Cy Young still requires a phenomenal year. Beckett definitely had that with a 3.27 ERA over 200.2 innings. He was backed by Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and the two youngsters Buchholz and Lester. Schilling only threw 151 innings due to an injury and the Red Sox massive lead in the AL East, while Matsuzaka disappointed some in his first big league season. Before you get too down on Matsuzaka, a 4.40 ERA when half of your games are in Fenway Park isn’t a bad thing. He’s my candidate to take a massive step forward a la Beckett this season. All six guys that have already been mentioned will most likely be back in 2008 (unless the Red Sox find some reason to turn down Wakefield’s perpetual $4M team option). Since the Red Sox are well-known for their sabermetric understanding, they will find ways to get all six guys into the mix. The scenario I envision is Wakefield in the pen and spotting in for Lester and Buchholz to keep the innings off their young arms. Of course, any injury to a SP would force the remaining five to take their turns every time through the rotation.

Backing up the rotation in the later innings is a phenomenal bullpen. Led by Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, Terry Francona has it easy when he goes to the bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings. Plus, when you’ve got Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, and whoever gets left out of the rotation, it’s not like the earlier innings are hard to endure.

Concerns

World Series MVP Mike Lowell is a free agent. While much of the talk is about Alex Rodriguez right now, the Red Sox have expressed interest in re-signing Lowell. If Lowell signs elsewhere, talk will surely head to Rodriguez, but don’t forget that Youkilis can play third base, which means they can bring in someone to play either one of the corner infield spots. There aren’t really any good first basemen on the free agent market, but they could always get Ortiz out on the field. Before you think about his “horrific” defense, putting him at first frees up the DH spot for Manny. If you replace LF Ramirez, 3B Lowell, and 1B Youkilis with LF Coco Crisp/Ellsbury, 3B Youkilis, and 1B Ortiz, do you really lose anything on defense? Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics suggest that you actually gain defense with this arrangement, and whatever you lose on offense is okay because the Red Sox would still be the best team in the AL East and a good bet to return to the postseason.

Last offseason, Julio Lugo was brought in to provide good offense and defense from the shortstop spot? He provided neither. With $27M and three years left on the deal, he’s not exactly easily dealt either. The Red Sox best decision would be to give him another shot next year and hope he can prove his worth over the first half of the year. Regardless of his first half performance, their midseason decision would be based on Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie can continue his hot hitting (.298/.393/.503 split between AA and AAA) next year, he’ll be an easy choice to replace Lugo. If Lugo performs poorly, it’s time to cut bait and replace him with Lowrie. If Lugo performs well, it’s time to trade him and replace him with Lowrie.

Overall

After a World Series championship, it’s easy to expect the Red Sox to put forth a valiant effort to repeat. While they’re expected to make it back to the postseason, everyone knows that the postseason is a crapshoot so it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have the decision of whether or not to bring back Mike Lowell as a luxury item (they don’t need him) and how to handle their shortstop situation. Next offseason will be more interesting with Manny’s and Jason Varitek’s contracts expiring. In the meantime, Red Sox fans, enjoy your championship and I’ll expect to see you again next postseason.

We're back with another shot at the fantasy positional rankings, starting up again with catchers. I looked at my past leagues to find that it takes about 18 runs, 7 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, and .002 points in batting average to move a spot in each category. For catchers, the replacement level is updated to 57 runs, 14 home runs, 60 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a .278 batting average.

First Tier
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer tops the list with a huge advantage in runs and batting average while being above average in RBI and SB.

Second Tier
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
McCann broke out last year, displaying big power numbers for a catcher. He should be good for an advantage in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

Third Tier
3. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Martinez doesn't quite keep up with McCann as he hits for a lower average with fewer home runs.

Fourth Tier
4. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
5. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
After looking at the numbers, I've decided that I was ranking Barrett much too low and have bumped up to fifth. While Barrett was having a great season, Johjima proved that he was able to come from Japan and produce as they both provide a good supply of runs, RBI, and AVG.

Fifth Tier
6. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Hernandez and Rodriguez will produce an average number of runs and RBI. But while Hernandez gives slightly more home runs, the difference is offset by Pudge's ability to steal bases and hit for average.

Sixth Tier
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Mike Piazza, Oakland Athletics
10. Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh Pirates

All five of these guys are very close to replacement level. While Varitek might as well take the title Replacement Fantasy Catcher as he is at replacement level across the board, the other four have advantages and disadvantages that should be considered if you are choosing between them. Each of them has some advantages: Posada - R, RBI; Piazza - HR, RBI; Martin - R, SB; and Paulino - AVG. These advantages are offset by their weaknesses: Posada - AVG; Piazza - R, AVG; Martin - HR, RBI; and Paulino - HR. All things considered, these five catchers have similar value in your typical fantasy league.

Seventh Tier
13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
14. Miguel Olivo, Florida Marlins
15. Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets
16. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Pierzynski is just slightly below the Varitek (replacement) level across the board. Olivo's extra stolen bases are severely offset by his low batting average, Lo Duca's lack of power places him in this category, and Molina's plodding on the basepaths limits his run scoring ability. These limitations drops these four guys into the top of the list of replacement players.

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That's the initial list. Again, I'll take any comments, complains, suggestions, etc. into consideration for a future revision of the list.