Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery. After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they should be back in contention for the Central once again.

Strengths

Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).

Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings. Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In 2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47 in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up 14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1 major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 2.68 is still pretty dominant.

Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno (.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.

Concerns

If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that should start in Baltimore next season.

Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field, Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a .202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is probably best used in a utility role.

As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit .326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit .281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.

It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.

Overall

As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good shape.

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Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be moving on.

Back when I did my NL Central Preview post, I got accused of being a Cubs fan that was "run[ninng] down the Cardinals out of [my] own jealousy," which I found funny since I'm not (and never have been) a Cubs fan. Back in that preview, I put the Cardinals third in the Central with an 83-79 record. Although they're guaranteed a losing record, they will most likely finish third, so that counts as 50% right, right?

Strengths

With Albert Pujols at first base, they have quite possibly the best player in the major leagues. He hasn't had the best season this year, but he puts up great seasons year after year, so that's what qualifies him as "quite possibly the best." At $48M over the next three years along with a club option for $16M in 2011, he is an incredible bargain. Next year will be his Age-28 season, which is when a lot of players have their best seasons, so it will be interesting to see if Pujols can top his normal .330/.430/.600 season. Although the 2006 World Series Champions are not going to be able to defend their title, they did get some good news from the guy behind the plate. Yadier Molina carried his 2006 postseason hitting into the 2007 season. In 2006, Molina hit .216/.274/.321, which he blew out of the water this year by hitting .275/.340/.368. The youngest Molina might finally be coming into his own at the plate to go with his superior defense behind it.

Elsewhere on the field, they have plenty of outfield depth. Now, they just need to find out if any of it is worth playing everyday for a full season. With Jim Edmonds in center when healthy, the Cardinals will divide the corner outfield playing time among Chris Duncan, So Taguchi (if they pick up his $1.1M option for 2008), Rick Ankiel, Scott Spiezio, Ryan Ludwick, and Skip Schumaker. Normally, the Taguchi decision would be easy as it is only $1.1M for a fourth outfielder, but with all of the other options, the 38 year old Taguchi might be allowed to walk. If they choose the latter option, that means Schumaker will have a roster spot next year as no one else can play an adequate center field in Edmonds' absence. With Edmonds' injury history, the Cards will need a replacement at some point. In an ideal situation, the Cards will just give the playing time to Duncan in left and Ankiel in right, but it could come down to who does better in that small sample they like to call Spring Training. Unfortunately, that means the Cards will have to keep 5 outfielders all year as Scott Spiezio is already under contract for 2008, but some quality help is on the way in Colby Rasmus. Rasmus will start the year at AAA after clubbing his way to a .275/.381/.551 at AA Springfield and could be up with the big league club midseason.

Every year, it seems like Dave Duncan is able to cobble together a good bullpen regardless of what pieces he's given, so even without knowing who will be replacing Russ Springer and Troy Percival (if they sign elsewhere), I'm willing to say that the bullpen is a strength. That could change if the Cards decide to turn down the $8M club option they have on Jason Isringhausen for next year.

Weaknesses

Other than catcher and first base, they have question marks all over the field. We've already covered those in the outfield, so looking at the rest of the infield, David Eckstein is a free agent, Scott Rolen is a severe injury risk, and second base has had performance-related question marks all season. Starting at the hot corner, Rolen has fought with shoulder problems since 2005. After playing in only 56 games in 2005, Rolen managed to play in 141 last year, but he really faded late in the year, hitting only .227/.299/.398 in September due to the aforementioned should problems. This year, he took the surgery route in mid-September after only hitting .265/.331/.398 on the season as he just could not hit for power. How he returns next year could tell us a lot about the rest of his career. He's a key to their chances.

At second base, St. Louis brought in Adam Kennedy on what seemed to be a great deal of 3 years and $10M after many productive years in Anaheim. Most players put up better numbers when they come over to the National League, but Kennedy mostly fell apart by hitting a mere .219/.282/.290. His replacements, Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan, haven't run away with the starting job either, so it will be interesting to see how the Cards approach this situation in the offseason.

Across the bag at shortstop, Eckstein is a free agent and, other than an aging Omar Vizquel, is the only good shortstop on the market. If the Cardinals want him back, they'll have to move quickly before another team sweeps him up.

Last offseason, St. Louis lost nearly all of its 2006 rotation to free agency. Jeff Suppan signed with the Brewers, Jeff Weaver signed with the Mariners, and Jason Marquis signed with the Cubs. All three got great deals from their respective teams, and in the long run, it is probably best that the Cards didn't re-sign them. The rest of last year's rotation was disappointing as well. Chris Carpenter only lasted one bad start before eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, and Anthony Reyes had a 6.08 ERA before being sent down in late May. Carpenter should be back in late 2008, and Reyes is back now (he isn't doing any better). Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper were in the bullpen last year, and they have been the club's best two starting pitchers all year. For the team's sake, they need to be able to duplicate their 2007 seasons next year.

Overall

The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals got a championship, and it's a good thing because they might be having some poor seasons coming up. Having talented players like Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter, and Wainwright on your roster provides you with a shot, but that requires each of them to stay healthy and productive, which isn't very likely over a 162-game season. In addition, their farm system is bereft of many great prospects other than Rasmus. Whether the great Walt Jocketty returns as GM next season or not, the farm system should be a top priority. Pre-free agency players are the greatest source of value in today's game, and every team needs to use that to their advantage. It is possible that 2008 will also see a new manager on the field as LaRussa's contract expires at the end of the season, and it has been rumored that he could retire. Ownership might not want to admit it, but the Cardinals appear to be entering rebuilding mode.