While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’#### .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.

After appearing in the 2006 World Series, expectations were high in the Motor City. After acquiring Gary Sheffield from the Yankees, expectations grew. Unfortunately, those expectations are going to go unfulfilled. With the next Yankee victory or the next Tiger loss, the Detroit Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff race.

Strengths

The offense is currently ranked third in the major leagues in runs scored, and with all of the productive players under contract for next year, they should remain a high-scoring team in 2008. Only two of their starters are free agents this offseason: Ivan Rodriguez and Sean Casey. Usually, excluding Pudge from the productive player group would result in a great deal of retaliation from others, but when you can't get your OBP over .300, it's hard to be productive. No one will argue that Rodriguez is still a great defensive catcher, and when you've got a crew of hitters around him, that's what makes him a worthwhile investment. At 35, you can't expect him to hit .347/.375/.667 like he did in 2000 with the Rangers, but if he can get back to last year's .300/.332/.437, that's pretty good for a catcher. Another year of .280/.293/.420 or worse will signify that even Pudge has to answer to Father Time eventually. If Pudge is your biggest positional problem, you must be doing something right.

The other free agent Sean Casey has spent years being horrible, but for some reason, his on-field performance gets overlooked in favor of his clubhouse leadership and ability to handle the media. It's been three years since Casey has had a productive season at the plate, and a defensive first baseman just isn't worth all that much. After hitting .296/.353/.396 this year, Casey appears to be headed out of Detroit with talk of shortstop Carlos Guillen moving over to first base. Guillen is one of the most underrated players today, and his .293/.354/.493 line has nearly 100 points in the SLG department over Casey. That will be an improvement. As far as replacing Guillen at shortstop, there has been a lot of talk of the Tigers acquiring Jack Wilson in the offseason. Wilson's defense is a big improvement over Guillen's, and his bat isn't any worse than Casey's. By replacing Casey with Wilson, they improve the defense without harming the offense.

Making up the heart of the Tiger offense are Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson has been talked about lately by being one of only a handful to accomplish 20 2B, 20 3B, 20 HR, and 20 SB in one season, and Ordonez is often mentioned in the AL MVP discussion. He doesn't have a chance of beating Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he proved that he is back to his pre-injury form. Joining Ordonez and Granderson in the lineup are Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Gary Sheffield. Polanco is putting up a huge season at 2B, and Sheffield has done well coming off of and dealing with his shoulder injuries. He's scheduled to have surgery in the offseason. With his age and his shoulder problems, it should be interesting to see how many more years he can maintain that tremendous bat speed he has. On the other hand, Inge seems to have lost the home run power he displayed in 2006, which appears to be a career year. With a career high of 16 home runs coming into the season, Inge hit 27 home runs last year, but he has only hit 14 this year. Having signed a four-year extension back in December, the Tigers are betting that he can turn it back around. Out in left field, the Tigers tried to push Cameron Maybin up to the big leagues this year, but at 20 years old, he doesn't look ready. After hitting .316/.409/.523 combined through three minor league levels, he's only hit .152/.220/.283 in the majors. He'll probably start 2008 at either AA or AAA and could possibly make his return midseason. Until that time, Marcus Thames will be the left fielder. Thames has always had power, but he needs to get on base more often.

Weaknesses

After a great 2006, the pitching staff has been the team's weakness this year and heading into 2008. It is more a question of durability than it is a question of talent. Justin Verlander has held up so far, but there have been question marks about his workload even before he made it to the major league club. The guy that is supposed to be his co-ace, Jeremy Bonderman, was shut down a few weeks ago due to right elbow inflammation. Bonderman was handled carefully throughout his development, but the second half of 2007 has been a disaster (7.38 ERA since the All-Star break). It makes you question if he was hiding the pain from the coaching staff for a while. While Nate Robertson has put together yet another solid season in the middle of the rotation, Kenny Rogers started the year on the DL and hasn't been as effective since making his return. He'll be a free agent, and the Tigers could be entering a transitional stage as they have a couple young arms coming up the ranks in Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens. Whether they re-sign Rogers or go with the young guns, the Tigers have several question marks here going forward.

The question marks don't end in the rotation. Todd Jones will be entering free agency, Joel Zumaya hasn't been the same since rupturing a tendon in his middle finger, and Fernando Rodney hasn't been the same this year. Jones has spent much of his career in a Tiger uniform so there might be some loyalty built up in that relationship, but relievers that have "proven" themselves as a closer generally command big money on the market. Zumaya had a 3.63 ERA before the injury but a 5.28 ERA after. Rodney has a 4.10 ERA over 48.1 inning this year after a 2006 season with a 3.52 ERA over 71.2 innings last year.

Overall

The Tigers have several question marks heading into 2008. First and foremost, they need their young pitchers (starters and relievers) to be healthy and effective. Additionally, the Tigers should try to keep Ivan Rodriguez and Todd Jones in Detroit. If Maybin can make his way back to the majors next year and prove himself when he gets called up, he'll be a big lift to the Tigers both offensively and defensively (he's a legit center fielder, who will be playing a corner). Things will need to improve next year for the Tigers to knock off the Indians and win their first division title since they won the AL East back in 1987.

If I were it up to me, I'd select these stars to represent the American League. Starters are marked with an asterisk

Catcher
*Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

First Base
*David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers

Second Base
*Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Third Base
*Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays

Shortstop
*Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers

Outfield
*Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox
*Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers
*Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins
Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals 

Bullpen
J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins
Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers

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I have 31 players listed here with Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, Troy Glaus, and Gil Meche having been added due to the 1 player per team rule (Gagne is Teixeira's injury replacement). (Yes, I think Alex Rodriguez has outpaced his fellow third basemen so much that I didn't select another player until I needed a Blue Jay.)

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
1B Mark Teixeira
2B B.J. Upton
3B Troy Glaus
OF Curtis Granderson
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
RP Pat Neshek
RP Hideki Okajima
RP Eric Gagne

None of these guys have that strong of a case to be All-Stars that we should be complaining about them being excluded from the mid-season exhibition.

 All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
C Ivan Rodriguez and 2B Placido Polanco

No, I'm not picking on the Tigers, but how does Ivan Rodriguez belong as the AL starting catcher? He is terrible at getting on base. By Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Pudge ranks 9th among AL catchers, mostly due to his .293 OBP. There's quite a few AL catchers with batting averages higher than Rodriguez's OBP.

Final Vote
With three of my team's players up for selection in the final vote, I have to go with the starting pitcher, Kelvim Escobar. He has more of a major league track record than either Hideki Okajima or Pat Neshek, and starting pitchers just have a much greater effect on their own teams than relief pitchers.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

Only places where the rankings were changed will be mentioned.

Catchers
Fourth Tier
4. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
*5. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
6. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
*7. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

The 4th and 5th tiers have been combined because there just isn't much of a difference between the four players.

First Basemen
Seventh Tier
*11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
*15. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Thomas is down from the sixth tier, and Gonzalez is up from the eighth tier. Remember that Thomas is not eligible at 1B. It was just the most logical position to list him with.

Eighth Tier
...
*20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
*21. Ryan Shealy, Kansas City Royals

I added Youkilis and Shealy to the end of the list because they're close enough to the rest of the 8th tier.

Second Basemen
Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
*4. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
*6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
*7. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
*8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Moved up nearly the entire 3rd tier (minus Kelly Johnson and Ryan Freel) to join Mr. Kendrick in the 2nd. Also, I found the reason I had Brian Roberts down so far. I had a very low AVG projection for him, which was completely out of line with his recent history. Now he's up closer to the top where you'd expect him.

Third Tier
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
11. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After everyone left, Iguchi joins the outfielders masquerading as 2B. (Actually, Johnson will play second base this year unlike Freel. He just doesn't qualify here until about April 15.) 

Fourth Tier
12. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
13. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
*... 

These two standout from the other guys that were in the fourth tier, so the rest are booted down.

Third Basemen
Third Tier
*9. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Gordon drops out of the second tier to join Chipper in the third. Don't expect to draft Gordon if you're in a competitive league. I saw him go in the 7th round yesterday.

Fourth Tier
*11. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

Rolen also experiences a drop down to the cleared out fourth tier, which means that the remainder of the fourth tier now constitutes the fifth tier.

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As always, let me know what you think of the rankings.

We're back with another shot at the fantasy positional rankings, starting up again with catchers. I looked at my past leagues to find that it takes about 18 runs, 7 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, and .002 points in batting average to move a spot in each category. For catchers, the replacement level is updated to 57 runs, 14 home runs, 60 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a .278 batting average.

First Tier
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer tops the list with a huge advantage in runs and batting average while being above average in RBI and SB.

Second Tier
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
McCann broke out last year, displaying big power numbers for a catcher. He should be good for an advantage in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

Third Tier
3. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Martinez doesn't quite keep up with McCann as he hits for a lower average with fewer home runs.

Fourth Tier
4. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
5. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
After looking at the numbers, I've decided that I was ranking Barrett much too low and have bumped up to fifth. While Barrett was having a great season, Johjima proved that he was able to come from Japan and produce as they both provide a good supply of runs, RBI, and AVG.

Fifth Tier
6. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Hernandez and Rodriguez will produce an average number of runs and RBI. But while Hernandez gives slightly more home runs, the difference is offset by Pudge's ability to steal bases and hit for average.

Sixth Tier
8. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
9. Mike Piazza, Oakland Athletics
10. Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh Pirates

All five of these guys are very close to replacement level. While Varitek might as well take the title Replacement Fantasy Catcher as he is at replacement level across the board, the other four have advantages and disadvantages that should be considered if you are choosing between them. Each of them has some advantages: Posada - R, RBI; Piazza - HR, RBI; Martin - R, SB; and Paulino - AVG. These advantages are offset by their weaknesses: Posada - AVG; Piazza - R, AVG; Martin - HR, RBI; and Paulino - HR. All things considered, these five catchers have similar value in your typical fantasy league.

Seventh Tier
13. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
14. Miguel Olivo, Florida Marlins
15. Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets
16. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

Pierzynski is just slightly below the Varitek (replacement) level across the board. Olivo's extra stolen bases are severely offset by his low batting average, Lo Duca's lack of power places him in this category, and Molina's plodding on the basepaths limits his run scoring ability. These limitations drops these four guys into the top of the list of replacement players.

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That's the initial list. Again, I'll take any comments, complains, suggestions, etc. into consideration for a future revision of the list.