The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

A few days ago, I said that I was hoping to catch up to when teams were actually being eliminated. Now two days later, I'm writing off the 2007 Mariners, who technically still have a shot. Since they'd need to win out and the Yankees to lose out, I think it's a safe bet to say they're out of the running.

Strengths

With Kenji Johjima performing well at the major league level and Jeff Clement proving himself ready with the bat (if not the glove), the Mariners have two good catchers going forward. If they want, they can give Clement another year at AAA Tacoma, where he hit .275/.370/.497, to improve his below average defense. On the other hand, they could employ both in the majors to ensure themselves a fresh catcher throughout the season. Depending on the circumstances, they might want to start the transition sooner rather than later. The circumstances I speak of is Johjima's contract. It runs out at the end of the 2008 season. At that point, he'll have three years of service, which would make him a protected arbitration-eligible player, but it depends on his contract. Quite a few Japanese imports get major league contracts that grant them free agency at the end regardless of their service time. If he does become a free agent, maybe the Mariners should split the time between Johjima and Clement for the first half. If Clement proves himself, the Mariners could look to trade Johjima because teams are always in need of a quality catcher. Either way, it's an enviable situation to be in.

The Mariners are also pretty well set in the outfield. Even if they let Jose Guillen walk, they'll be all right. Guillen's situation is a complicated one, so let's first talk about the other guys. Ichiro Suzuki was given a contract extension midseason that will keep him in Seattle through 2012 at $17M per. While I'd argue that Ichiro won't be worth that much on the field in 2012 at 38 years old, he could be that rare speedy player that holds up as he ages. It's his nationality that makes him worth $17M per season even if he declines like a normal player. Raul Ibanez is also signed through 2008 at $5.5M. Ichiro and Ibanez will be joined by Adam Jones and possibly Wladimir Balentien. Adam Jones's second AAA season was very impressive as he hit .314/.382/.586 and proved he doesn't need any more minor league seasoning. He should be starting in 2008. Balentien is also ready to join him in the big leagues as he hit .291/.362/.509 at AAA Tacoma. It should be interesting to see if the Mariners make room for in the outfield, which brings us back to Guillen. Given their other options, the Mariners will probably turn down Guillen's club option of $8M, but Guillen could then exercise his player option of $5M. Guillen is easily worth that on the open market. The Mariners could do one of four things: buy him out at $0.5M, try to trade him, keep him around as a bench player and deal with his temper tantrums, or keep him and play him at the expense of Balentien. If the Mariners are dedicated to the long-term, they should try to trade him and play Ibanez, Ichiro, Jones, and Balentien in the outfield and at DH full-time in '08.

J.J Putz has put up what is quite possibly the best relief season this year with a 1.45 ERA over 68.1 innings while racking up 39 saves. Other relievers with good seasons this year include Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, who have combined for an ERA of 3.30 over 106.1 innings. However, Morrow was a first round pick in 2006, and he was viewed as a future starter, not a reliever. After spending a year relieving in the majors, it's hard to understand how he's going to build up the arm strength to be a major league starting pitcher. Are the Mariners going to put him in the AA or AAA rotation next season or will he continue his development at the major leagues out in the bullpen? It should be interesting to watch.

Speaking of potential starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez is a current starting pitcher and a potential #1 in the future. He'll only be 22 a week into the 2008 season, and so far, he's only shown flashes of his potential dominance. If he's over his arm issues from the beginning of the season, could 2008 be the season he makes the leap forward?

Weaknesses

A year after trading a power arm in Rafael Soriano for the mediocre Horacio Ramirez, it is possible that Ramirez doesn't return to the rotation next year. A 7.16 ERA over 20 starts has that effect on people. Just ask Jeff Weaver, who is trying his best to duplicate Ramirez with a 6.30 ERA over 138.2 innings. I can't imagine the Mariners making the same type of commitments heading into 2008, which means that they'll be on the market for a 4th and 5th starter to fill out the rotation. Unfortunately, there's not much available. The Mariners might want to get creative on the trade market and see what they can find. Maybe that's what they can target in a Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro (if a player waives a no-trade clause, is it reinstated after the trade? if so, that could be a problem), and/or Johjima trade.

On the right side of the infield, the Mariners have some long-term contracts given out to players putting up terrible seasons. Richie Sexson has only hit .205/.295/.399 for the $14M he's being paid, and Jose Lopez has hit .257/.287/.353 and is under contract for three more seasons. Sexson is due another $14M next year, so he'll probably be given multiple chances to prove that 2007 was an aberration. When he couldn't get the job done this year, the Mariners looked to Ben Broussard, but he hasn't done much better, only hitting .271/.323/.406. Broussard is arbitration-eligible in the offseason, and the Mariners could choose to not tender him an offer as he was already making $3.55M this season. Arbitration doesn't usually lead to cuts in pay. With Lopez, money isn't the problem as he's only due $4.4M total over the next three years with a $4.5M option in 2011 ($0.25M buyout). The problem is that there aren't many other options. At 23, he's still got time to prove that he can handle big league pitching.

Overall

Given their outfield depth, their 2008 season depends on a rebound from Richie Sexson and finding a couple of quality arms to put at the back of the rotation. If those things happen, the Mariners will once again be in contention. If King Felix takes a leap forward, they'll be tough to beat. It's going to be tough to find those two starting pitchers, but the Mariners are rebounding after three straight losing seasons heading into 2007.

If I were it up to me, I'd select these stars to represent the American League. Starters are marked with an asterisk

Catcher
*Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

First Base
*David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers

Second Base
*Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Third Base
*Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays

Shortstop
*Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers

Outfield
*Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox
*Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers
*Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins
Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals 

Bullpen
J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins
Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers

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I have 31 players listed here with Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, Troy Glaus, and Gil Meche having been added due to the 1 player per team rule (Gagne is Teixeira's injury replacement). (Yes, I think Alex Rodriguez has outpaced his fellow third basemen so much that I didn't select another player until I needed a Blue Jay.)

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
1B Mark Teixeira
2B B.J. Upton
3B Troy Glaus
OF Curtis Granderson
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
RP Pat Neshek
RP Hideki Okajima
RP Eric Gagne

None of these guys have that strong of a case to be All-Stars that we should be complaining about them being excluded from the mid-season exhibition.

 All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
C Ivan Rodriguez and 2B Placido Polanco

No, I'm not picking on the Tigers, but how does Ivan Rodriguez belong as the AL starting catcher? He is terrible at getting on base. By Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Pudge ranks 9th among AL catchers, mostly due to his .293 OBP. There's quite a few AL catchers with batting averages higher than Rodriguez's OBP.

Final Vote
With three of my team's players up for selection in the final vote, I have to go with the starting pitcher, Kelvim Escobar. He has more of a major league track record than either Hideki Okajima or Pat Neshek, and starting pitchers just have a much greater effect on their own teams than relief pitchers.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

For outfielders, I am not considering individual positions. If your league does, push CF up in the rankings.

Replacement Level
81 R, 20 HR, 75, 11 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Second Tier
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies

Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.

Third Tier
4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.

Fourth Tier
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fifth Tier
11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves

Sixth Tier
13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds

There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.

Seventh Tier
16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees
19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox
22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves

Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.

Eighth Tier
23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals
26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies
33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins
34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics
36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers
43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres

Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.

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I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.