When I started this series, I said, “With that in mind, I
also don’t want this to become stale.” Ten days later, it has. Due to this, I plan
on keeping things much shorter from now on.
Impact Shortstops to
Be Traded
Michael Young would be here, but he has a no-trade clause in
his contract. Can you believe that he’s scheduled to make $16M every year from
2009 to 2013?
Contenders Needing a
Shortstop
As I mentioned in my last article about the second base
market, the Cubs should go after Mark Ellis instead of Brian Roberts as has
been rumored. Without making a move, their best options up the middle are Mark
DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno. With Roberts, they could move DeRosa over to short,
but I think a duo of Ellis at short and DeRosa at second would be a better
solution. Whether or not Oakland will give up Ellis in a trade is a different
story, but I think they should.
Next
Year’s Free Agents
The Dodgers should try to extend
Rafael Furcal. Sure, they’ve got a major-league shortstop in the minors with
Chin-Lung Hu, but they’ve also got a second base spot opening up after the
season with Jeff Kent’s free agency. One of them can move over to second, and
Furcal is the type of guy worth an extension.
David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando
Cabrera are also free agents following the year, but none are worth worrying
about before the season ends. Eckstein wasn’t worth a multi-year deal two
months ago, and nothing’s changed since. The same can be said about Uribe three
months ago. As for Cabrera, he’s a good player when he keeps his batting
average up, but when it drops like it did in 2004 and 2005, he’s a below
average shortstop. That’s not the type of guy that gets a new deal before his contract
expires.
Pre-Free
Agent Stars
Obviously, Hanley Ramirez deserves a
contract similar, yet more lucrative, than the 4-year, $23.5M contract Jose
Reyes got in August 2006, but something tells me that the Florida Marlins aren’t
about to fork out anything more than they have to pay him in 2008.
J.J. Hardy will be a free agent following
the 2010 season, and he has exchanged arbitration figures with the Brewers
($3.05M/$2.4M) for this year. Until he proves that he can stay healthy and
productive for consecutive seasons, I wouldn’t worry about locking up his
future. If he can put together anything resembling his 2007 in 2008, it will be
time to open the check book for a three-year deal.
Recap
Michael Young has a surprising
amount of guaranteed money coming his way. The Cubs need to improve their
shortstop, and Mark Ellis is the guy for the job. Rafael Furcal and Hanley
Ramirez deserve a contract extension, but J.J. Hardy needs to prove himself one
more time. David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera should all become
free agents before they sign their next contract.
Staying in the state of Florida, the Marlins' chances for the postseason first reached less than 1 in a million back on August 28th in the BP Postseason Odds Report, nearly a month and a half after the first team in this series.
The Good
Hanley Ramirez has become one of the best players in the major leagues, joining teammate Miguel Cabrera in that category, although they still might not be the best left side of the infield in their own division - thanks to the Met duo of Jose Reyes and David Wright. Jeremy Hermida has stayed healthy, which is a first at the big league level, and he's brought some of that famous minor-league OBP (.457 in AA in 2005) with him by hitting .288/.365/.496. Former Rule 5 pickup Dan Uggla has not only maintained his power from last year, he's increased it. Now if he could only find last year's batting average back...
Other than the high-profile acquisitions and failings (high-profile for the Marlins anyway) of Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez, the Marlins have been able to assemble a pretty good bullpen with Kevin Gregg collecting the saves after hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, and Lee Gardner have pitched the middle innings.
The Bad
After Joe Girardi worked the starting rotation to the bone last season chasing after the wild card and his Manager of the Year award, the young starters have predictably fallen apart. Josh Johnson only threw 37.1 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery to fix a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Ricky Nolasco has only thrown 55 innings due to elbow inflammation, and Anibal Sanchez only three 30 innings before undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum.
Looking to the Future
Just like the offseason before the 2006 season and the 2007 season, the Marlins need to find somebody that can handle center field on a full-time basis. After trying out guys like Reggie Abercrombie in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza this year, they keep resorting to Alfredo Amezaga, who should really be their backup utility guy. I like that they have tried out Cody Ross in center because I think he deserves a shot at a big league job, but I don't think he has the range to handle center everyday.
In addition to center field, the Marlins need to get their young arms healthy again and try to keep their current bullpen from imploding. Relievers always have the most variance in their year-to-year numbers, and it can multiply through the entire pen. (If you don't believe me, just check out the Brewers and Indians over the past several years.) If they can get full seasons from Johnson, Nolasco, and Sanchez next year, the Marlins could bounce back into contention next year. They need to because it won't be long before they no longer have Dontrelle Willis and/or Miguel Cabrera.
Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.
Catcher *Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
First Base *Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals
Second Base *Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Third Base *Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins David Wright, New York Mets Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Shortstop *Jose Reyes, New York Mets Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves
Outfield *Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants *Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies *Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs Hunter Pence, Houston Astros Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Starting Pitchers *Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros Chris Young, San Diego Padres John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves John Maine, New York Mets
Relief Pitchers Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.
Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco 3B Chipper Jones SS Hanley Ramirez SS Edgar Renteria OF Hunter Pence SP Roy Oswalt SP Chris Young SP Ian Snell SP Derek Lowe SP Tim Hudson SP John Maine
There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.
All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.
Final Vote Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.
First Tier 1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets 2. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Second Tier 3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins 4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies 5. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles
Third Tier 6. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers 7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers 8. Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays 9. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers
Hall and Glaus obviously only qualify as shortstops, but they do provide mega-power at the position. They are held back by lack of RBI opportunities (Hall will probably bat second) and AVG, respectively.
Fourth Tier 10. Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals 11. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers 12. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez could be eligible at second in mid-April, but I'm in denial and listing him at SS. I just can't believe that the Nationals will actually choose to start Cristian Guzman over Ron Belliard. If Lopez qualifies at second, I would place him at the bottom of the second tier of second basemen.
Fifth Tier 13. Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves 14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies 15. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
If J-Honey returns to 2005 form, he will zoom up the charts. If he performs like last year, he's not worth having in fantasy leagues. Somewhere in between sounds right to me.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders