Last Sunday, I wrote about the flawed All-Star selection process. Before getting into today’s topic, I want to respond to a few comments from last week. First, I used Joe Crede as the example because Alex Rodriguez should have been a unanimous selection at 3B. For Crede to be elected because some players couldn’t see that Rodriguez is the best AL 3B is ridiculous. I’ll admit that Jason Varitek would have been a better example than Crede, but Rodriguez was a better example than Joe Mauer.

The second issue is with the start of All-Star balloting. I have no problems with voting starting at the beginning of May. The point brought up against it was that Carlos Quentin wasn’t on the ballot because he hadn’t stepped in as starter yet. Actually, that’s false. Quentin has been starting since April 3rd. Instead of listing Quentin on the ballot, Jerry Owens was listed, and he hasn’t even had a single plate appearance in 2008. This isn’t really an issue of when the voting starts; it’s an issue of “how did MLB end up listing Jerry Owens on the ballot without a single plate appearance?”

The last issue is that several of the comments were complaining about the fan vote with many of you suggesting that the players and managers have a better idea of who should be on the All-Star team. That is the main topic of this post.

Instead of looking directly at the players the fans voted in, I decided to look at the rosters as a whole and find the players that don’t belong objectively. When people choose All-Stars, there are two separate paths that are usually used. The first is the most common, and that is to select the All-Stars based completely on the first half of the season. The second is the one I generally use, and that is to pick the players that are most likely to put together the best season, which takes into account both their season-to-date stats and expectations on whether or not they’re likely to keep it up. For example, Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun are performing similarly, but Braun would get my vote well before Ludwick would. Back to the objective process, I wanted to incorporate both of those selection methods, so using the players’ WARP totals from 2005 to 2008 (minor league numbers included), I computed the average 2008 WARP and the average 2005-to-2008 WARP for the All-Stars. I have listed all of the players that have WARP totals worse than one standard deviation below average in either category.

Poor All-Star Selections by 2008 WARP: Joe Crede, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner

Poor All-Star Selections by 2005-to-2008 WARP: Justin Duchscherer, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Dioner Navarro, Joakim Soria, Edinson Volquez, Kerry Wood

Poor All-Selections by Both Methods: Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, George Sherrill, Brian Wilson

Let’s look at how those players made the All-Star team, starting with those selected by the fans.

Poor Fan Selections: Josh Hamilton, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano (4 out of their 17 selections, or 23.5%)

Poor Player Selections: Joe Crede, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Joakim Soria, Jason Varitek, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Kerry Wood (9 out of 33, or 27.3%)

Poor Manager Selections: Justin Duchscherer, Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Dioner Navarro, George Sherrill, Billy Wagner (6 out of 12, or 50%)

The data suggests that the managers are the ones screwing up. If we want to look at just the players that don’t are worse than one standard deviation below average in both categories, that’s one player selection and three manager selections. No matter how I look at the data, it doesn’t appear to me that it’s the fans screwing up.

Looking at it more subjectively, Varitek, Crede, Guzman, and Sherrill are the players that don’t belong on the All-Star team. As I’ve already stated, I think Varitek and Crede were selected because Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez were close to unanimous selections at their positions, which resulted in Varitek and Crede only needing a handful of player votes to make the team. This is a problem that needs fixed. Guzman is the Nationals’ rep, and looking at their roster, there’s not really anyone else to pick. I have no problem with requiring one player from each team even when it means that Cristian Guzman is a 2008 All-Star. Likewise, Sherrill is the Orioles’ rep, but Brian Roberts would have been a much better selection. If Roberts were selected instead of Sherrill, the 12-pitcher restriction would have knocked Dioner Navarro off the team. Roberts and CC Sabathia (an AL player at the time) are better choices than Sherrill and Navarro. In total, I find that to be two bad choices by the player vote process (not the players), one bad choice by necessity, and one bad choice by Terry Francona.

If two bad choices were in fact by the player vote process, how do we go about fixing it? As I suggested last Sunday, I think it can be fixed with one easy change: make the players vote for two players at every position. That should remove any chance of a player making the All-Star team because someone else (Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez) was a near-unanimous selection.

Oh, and we should have Senator Mitchell look into how Jerry Owens got listed on the All-Star ballot.

A few days ago, I said that I was hoping to catch up to when teams were actually being eliminated. Now two days later, I'm writing off the 2007 Mariners, who technically still have a shot. Since they'd need to win out and the Yankees to lose out, I think it's a safe bet to say they're out of the running.

Strengths

With Kenji Johjima performing well at the major league level and Jeff Clement proving himself ready with the bat (if not the glove), the Mariners have two good catchers going forward. If they want, they can give Clement another year at AAA Tacoma, where he hit .275/.370/.497, to improve his below average defense. On the other hand, they could employ both in the majors to ensure themselves a fresh catcher throughout the season. Depending on the circumstances, they might want to start the transition sooner rather than later. The circumstances I speak of is Johjima's contract. It runs out at the end of the 2008 season. At that point, he'll have three years of service, which would make him a protected arbitration-eligible player, but it depends on his contract. Quite a few Japanese imports get major league contracts that grant them free agency at the end regardless of their service time. If he does become a free agent, maybe the Mariners should split the time between Johjima and Clement for the first half. If Clement proves himself, the Mariners could look to trade Johjima because teams are always in need of a quality catcher. Either way, it's an enviable situation to be in.

The Mariners are also pretty well set in the outfield. Even if they let Jose Guillen walk, they'll be all right. Guillen's situation is a complicated one, so let's first talk about the other guys. Ichiro Suzuki was given a contract extension midseason that will keep him in Seattle through 2012 at $17M per. While I'd argue that Ichiro won't be worth that much on the field in 2012 at 38 years old, he could be that rare speedy player that holds up as he ages. It's his nationality that makes him worth $17M per season even if he declines like a normal player. Raul Ibanez is also signed through 2008 at $5.5M. Ichiro and Ibanez will be joined by Adam Jones and possibly Wladimir Balentien. Adam Jones's second AAA season was very impressive as he hit .314/.382/.586 and proved he doesn't need any more minor league seasoning. He should be starting in 2008. Balentien is also ready to join him in the big leagues as he hit .291/.362/.509 at AAA Tacoma. It should be interesting to see if the Mariners make room for in the outfield, which brings us back to Guillen. Given their other options, the Mariners will probably turn down Guillen's club option of $8M, but Guillen could then exercise his player option of $5M. Guillen is easily worth that on the open market. The Mariners could do one of four things: buy him out at $0.5M, try to trade him, keep him around as a bench player and deal with his temper tantrums, or keep him and play him at the expense of Balentien. If the Mariners are dedicated to the long-term, they should try to trade him and play Ibanez, Ichiro, Jones, and Balentien in the outfield and at DH full-time in '08.

J.J Putz has put up what is quite possibly the best relief season this year with a 1.45 ERA over 68.1 innings while racking up 39 saves. Other relievers with good seasons this year include Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, who have combined for an ERA of 3.30 over 106.1 innings. However, Morrow was a first round pick in 2006, and he was viewed as a future starter, not a reliever. After spending a year relieving in the majors, it's hard to understand how he's going to build up the arm strength to be a major league starting pitcher. Are the Mariners going to put him in the AA or AAA rotation next season or will he continue his development at the major leagues out in the bullpen? It should be interesting to watch.

Speaking of potential starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez is a current starting pitcher and a potential #1 in the future. He'll only be 22 a week into the 2008 season, and so far, he's only shown flashes of his potential dominance. If he's over his arm issues from the beginning of the season, could 2008 be the season he makes the leap forward?

Weaknesses

A year after trading a power arm in Rafael Soriano for the mediocre Horacio Ramirez, it is possible that Ramirez doesn't return to the rotation next year. A 7.16 ERA over 20 starts has that effect on people. Just ask Jeff Weaver, who is trying his best to duplicate Ramirez with a 6.30 ERA over 138.2 innings. I can't imagine the Mariners making the same type of commitments heading into 2008, which means that they'll be on the market for a 4th and 5th starter to fill out the rotation. Unfortunately, there's not much available. The Mariners might want to get creative on the trade market and see what they can find. Maybe that's what they can target in a Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro (if a player waives a no-trade clause, is it reinstated after the trade? if so, that could be a problem), and/or Johjima trade.

On the right side of the infield, the Mariners have some long-term contracts given out to players putting up terrible seasons. Richie Sexson has only hit .205/.295/.399 for the $14M he's being paid, and Jose Lopez has hit .257/.287/.353 and is under contract for three more seasons. Sexson is due another $14M next year, so he'll probably be given multiple chances to prove that 2007 was an aberration. When he couldn't get the job done this year, the Mariners looked to Ben Broussard, but he hasn't done much better, only hitting .271/.323/.406. Broussard is arbitration-eligible in the offseason, and the Mariners could choose to not tender him an offer as he was already making $3.55M this season. Arbitration doesn't usually lead to cuts in pay. With Lopez, money isn't the problem as he's only due $4.4M total over the next three years with a $4.5M option in 2011 ($0.25M buyout). The problem is that there aren't many other options. At 23, he's still got time to prove that he can handle big league pitching.

Overall

Given their outfield depth, their 2008 season depends on a rebound from Richie Sexson and finding a couple of quality arms to put at the back of the rotation. If those things happen, the Mariners will once again be in contention. If King Felix takes a leap forward, they'll be tough to beat. It's going to be tough to find those two starting pitchers, but the Mariners are rebounding after three straight losing seasons heading into 2007.