In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model presented in Baseball Between the Numbers to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data, there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:

From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really contenders.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th in the voting?

On to the NL:

There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s) mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under $17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.

Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million behind Holliday.

In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs, does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?

Happy Thanksgiving!