Milwaukee's highly touted young position players shined through this year. They weren't able to hold onto a playoff spot, but this team isn't going away. Most of their young talent will be Brewers for at least three more seasons.
Strengths
The Brewers' number on strength is the young talent that is starting to leave their mark on the NL. Early in the year, it was Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy leading the way. After Hardy cooled off, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart joined Fielder at the head of the pack, and ever since his return from a minor league demotion, Rickie Weeks has been hitting the cover off the ball. Their infield looks incredibly strong going forward even if Braun might be forced to the outfield due his faulty defense. His bat more than makes up for his defensive miscues as he'#### .325/.370/.639 and put himself at the front of the rookie class. Across the diamond, Fielder has been mentioned in the NL MVP race, though his chances are seriously diminished with his team out of the playoff race. At second base, Weeks was demoted to the minors after a disappointing July where he only hit .125/.279/.143 and was at .212/.330/.363 overall. After 6 games of hitting .455/.571/.682 at AAA Nashville, Weeks returned to the majors and has hit .277/.447/.553 in his time back and improved his overall line to a respectable .235/.375.430. Weeks seems to have turned things around and could be back on his way to the stardom he was expected to reach.
Out in right field, Corey Hart finally convinced Ned Yost that he deserves to play everyday at the end of May. In his time in right field, Hart has played very well defensively and hit .294/.352/.529 on the season. One quality that Hart brings to the table that fans don't expect from a 6'6 guy is speed. He's been successful on 23 steals in 30 attempts. I'm not a big fan of the steal as a weapon, but it does indicate that Hart has a well-rounded set of tools to work with.
Another one of the Brewers' strong suits is the rotation. Yost has had plenty of options to turn into the rotation even if some of them have had their problems. The staff ace is Ben Sheets, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a few seasons, which is one of the key qualities teams look for in a staff ace. Lucky for the Brewers, they have a very strong #2 going forward in Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was inserted in the rotation when Sheets got hurt and hasn't looked back. Gallardo has a 3.67 ERA over 110.1 innings this season and should be a lock for the 2008 rotation. With Jeff Suppan being his league-average self, he's a good choice as a team's #3 starter. With the remaining two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will have to choose from a group of Chris Capuano, David Bush, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, which isn't a bad group to choose from. Capuano had two good seasons in 2005 and 2006 (~4.00 ERA over 220 innings), but he has not had the same success this year with his ERA ballooning to 5.09, pushing him to the bullpen for a stretch and limiting him to 145 innings this year. On the other end of the major league service time spectrum, Parra enjoyed a tremendous amount of success this year. In one of his rare healthy seasons (although he made an appearance on the DL, it classifies as healthy for him), Parra dominated AA (2.68 ERA over 80.2 innings) and then AAA (1.73 ERA over 26 innings) before getting a call-up to the bullpen. During his time in the majors, he has made two starts (both quality starts) and thrown 14 innings out of the bullpen, accumulating a 3.76 ERA. It shouldn't be too hard to find two quality starters out of that group of five.
Concerns (changed from Weaknesses)
The Brewers' left field situation has been a convoluted mess as nine different players have seen time out there. Going into next year, their viable options are Geoff Jenkins ($9M team option), Kevin Mench (due arbitration), Gabe Gross, or a free agent. In 2007, the Brewers tried using a platoon, which worked to a certain degree of success, and they could opt to go that route for one more year. Kevin Mench crushed lefties to the tune of .316/.345/.561, and Jenkins hit righties at a .264/.328/.481 clip. Is Jenkins's left-handed half of a platoon worth the $9M he'd be owed if the team picked up his option or will they give him the $0.5M buyout? To put that into context, Gabe Gross his .246/.328/.455 against righties. If they cut ties with Jenkins, Gross isn't much of a drop-off. He gets on base at the same rate with basically the same amount of power.
Another option would be to venture into the free agent market, but the options are pretty limited. Keeping mind the fact that 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta could be up as early as midseason 2008 if everything goes right, the Brewers would only be looking for a short-term filler at the position. Using this knowledge while perusing the available options, I found Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton. Bonds isn't a very good fit for the Brewers, so we'll cross him off, which leaves Lofton. Lofton is getting up there in age and could choose retirement (I haven't heard anything on that front), but he fits the Brewers need. Against righties this year, Lofton has hit .315/.387/.454 and would bring that veteran element they would lose with Jenkins's departure.
The other concern for the Brewers is Francisco Cordero's free agency. If they are unable to re-sign him, they will most likely have to turn back to Derrick Turnbow as their closer. After an All-Star 2005 in which he had a 1.74 ERA over 67.1 innings, he had a terrible 2006. His 6.87 ERA that year prompted the acquisition of Cordero in the first place. This year, he has a more respectable 4.63 ERA over 68 innings, but that isn't what you'd like from your #1 option in the bullpen. Cordero should be the Brewers' #1 priority heading into the offseason. The only available alternatives I could think of were Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood.
Overall
Heading into 2008, the Brewers need to resolve their bullpen and left field situations. It is rare for me to say this, but their bullpen might be the bigger problem. Given these two concerns, it is pretty easy to say that the Brewers will be at the top of the NL Central for the foreseeable future fighting it out with the Cubs.
Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.
Catcher *Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
First Base *Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals
Second Base *Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Third Base *Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins David Wright, New York Mets Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Shortstop *Jose Reyes, New York Mets Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves
Outfield *Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants *Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies *Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs Hunter Pence, Houston Astros Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Starting Pitchers *Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros Chris Young, San Diego Padres John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves John Maine, New York Mets
Relief Pitchers Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.
Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco 3B Chipper Jones SS Hanley Ramirez SS Edgar Renteria OF Hunter Pence SP Roy Oswalt SP Chris Young SP Ian Snell SP Derek Lowe SP Tim Hudson SP John Maine
There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.
All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.
Final Vote Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.
Let's make things clear. I'm not a fan of several traditional statistics (R, RBI, W, L, SV, HLD,...). What irritates me is when the media criticizes managers for doing the unconventional and using a closer earlier in the game. It wasn't that long ago that managers used their ace relievers early in games. It wasn't until the save statistic was created that managers saved their best reliever for the ninth inning. Now that the save statistic is held in such high regard (does fantasy baseball have that great of an effect?), managers have become slaves to the stat. What brought this to my attention today was watching the Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins game.
In the top of the ninth, Joe Nathan came in up by two runs. He gave up the lead but kept the game tied heading into the bottom of the ninth. When the Brewers were threatening to take the lead, Francisco Cordero was shown warming up in the bullpen. Since the Brewers did not take the lead, he stayed in the bullpen and Chris Spurling remained on the mound. A few pitches later, Justin Morneau homers and the game is over. This isn't just hindsight speaking. Why would you leave your best RP in the pen in favor of an inning-filler like Spurling during a tied game? Are you saving him for that hypothetical save opportunity in the 10th or 11th? If so, why would you wait on a hypothetical when Cordero can help you win (or more accurately, not lose) now? If not Cordero, where's Derrick Turnbow or Carlos Villanueva or even lefty Brian Shouse? You just can't leave your fifth best reliever on the mound in a tied game when you have four better options available in the bullpen.
If you're worried about running out of bullpen arms in an extra inning game, you've still got five guys in the pen, and you can save Villanueva to be your last guy out of the pen. He can throw four or five innings to save you from using a starter.
Ned Yost made a mistake today by saving his ace reliever for a future situation that he had no idea would ever happen. As a consequence of keeping his fifth best option in the game, the Brewers offense didn't get a shot to score in extras and increase their 6.5 game lead in the National League Central.
Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults) 12-Team, 5x5, Mixed, Rotisserie League Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G
I'm not going to make guesses at who will end up as closers where they are up in the air, so the rankings will have only a player if he is currently their team's closer.
First Tier 1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins 2. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays 3. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 4. Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Second Tier 5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees 6. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics 7. Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies 8. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners 9. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres 10. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals 11. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers 12. Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers 13. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox 14. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies 15. Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks 16. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros
If you take Gagne, make sure to handcuff him with Akinori Otsuka. I thought about dropping Lidge down to the next tier, but his stuff is still very good. Is Albert Pujols really powerful enough to ruin a former top-notch closer?
Third Tier 17. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles 18. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals 19. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers 20. Armando Benitez, San Francisco Giants 21. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers
Handcuff Jonathan Broxton to Saito. I would say the same for Joel Zumaya and Jones, but Fernando Rodney is still in Detroit as well.
Fourth Tier 22. Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates 23. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians 24. Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves 25. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs 26. Octavio Dotel, Kansas City Royals
If Wickman falters, keep an eye on who gets tapped to take his place. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are both great pitchers. Will they go to Gonzalez because he has closer experience, or Soriano because Gonzalez can be used to match up with lefties in the earlier innings?
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
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