It’s been a couple weeks since my last post, but I’ve been keeping track of things I wanted to talk about. Rather than write an insanely long post in which I go into detail about each, I’ll try to keep each short and sweet.

Back on May 22nd, it was reported that the Texas Rangers are exploring a long-term contract for Josh Hamilton. Hamilton won’t hit arbitration until after the 2009 season, and he won’t be a free agent until after 2012. For a guy with his talent, I’d normally say that it would be a good idea to get him signed long-term, but for a guy with his off-the-field past, I’m a lot more hesitant. I’ve heard stories about how Johnny Narron went with him everywhere on the road last year to help him stay on the straight-and-narrow, and he also mentioned in an interview last year about how he never carries more than $20 and how his wife keeps possession of the car keys to remove temptation to go buy drugs. I admire that Hamilton has turned his life around and takes precautions like I mentioned so he never goes down the road again, but is this a guy you’d be willing to wager millions of dollars on for the next 5+ years?

Concussions are an issue that typically doesn’t get enough attention. This article is a few days old but I’d suggest reading it if you haven’t. It seems that people hear concussion and stop worrying about the injury like the player will miss a day or two, and everything will be fine. As Corey Koskie unfortunately demonstrated, concussions are serious. The expectation for players to be willing to play through a concussion is terrible, and then actually using said players is even worse. I’ve often wondered if using the term “brain injury” instead of concussion would make people step back and think, “Hey, maybe we should take this more seriously.”

J.P. Ricciardi has been getting a lot of criticism lately, and it’s easy to see why. One particular move that made no sense at the time was the release of Frank Thomas. Although Thomas is now on the DL, he’s hit .319/.417/.516 since being picked up by Ricciardi’s former employer, the Oakland A’s. Ricciardi was quoted saying, “I told Frank our decision is based on performance.” Thomas said, “Sixty at-bats isn't enough to make that decision.” Thomas only has 91 at-bats with Oakland, but it doesn’t appear that Frank Thomas is done quite yet.

Speaking of criticism, Jose Guillen recently criticized his teammates and even called them babies. I find that funny coming from a guy who has had his own maturity questioned throughout his career.

Moving over to fantasy baseball, prior to the season, I traded Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez and Cole Hamels. Now, I know that the #1 overall pick doesn’t typically get traded, but I feel like I got a pretty good deal there. What I really want to point out is that if you are going to trade a player like A-Rod, make sure to do better than this.

With the month of April coming to a close, we will be down to 5 months of regular season baseball. This is also a time of the year where a lot of people are starting to completely buy into player’s statistics, so in that vein, I’m going to take a look at starting pitchers to see who should be targeted in fantasy baseball leagues and who should be shopped.

Methodology

I’m only looking at pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title at this point, using the data available at FanGraphs. For the target list, I’m going to list all pitchers with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of less than 4 and a better FIP than ERA. For the shop list, I’m going to list all pitchers with an ERA of less than 3 and a worse FIP than ERA. The idea is that a pitcher’s ERA will more than likely move back towards his FIP as the season progresses.

Pitchers to Target

I'm sorry about the width of this table. I followed the same procedure as the one below, but for some reason, this one's width won't reduce to the proper size. If you scroll over to the last column of the table, you’ll see just how much each pitcher has underperformed his underlying peripherals. From the rest of the guys in the table, Javier Vazquez and Ian Snell stand out.

Coming off a 15-win season with a 3.74 ERA, Vazquez had problems in his first and fifth starts. In his first start, he only went 5 innings, giving up 4 ER with 6 K. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, giving up 6 ER with 3 K. The two bad games came against the Yankees and Indians. In between his bad outings, he threw 20.1 innings with a 2.21 ERA, 3 wins, and 21 strikeouts. However, he’s not going to have a 2.32 ERA the rest of the way either. For a guy that has averaged 26 HR allowed in Chicago, Vazquez has yet to give up a HR in 2008. That’s not going to continue, and although he should continue to rack up the strikeouts, his ERA probably won’t fall much lower than its current level, so I wouldn’t consider him a must-target pitcher.

Similarly, Snell has also not been giving up the home runs so far this year. Snell gave up one to Brian McCann on Opening Day but hasn’t since. He doesn’t have any bad outings like Vazquez, but he also only has one good outing. On April 6, Snell struck out 10 Marlins while only giving up 1 ER over 6 innings. Also similar to Vazquez, I wouldn’t call Snell a must-target pitcher. He will probably lower his ERA a little bit, but he’ll pretty much stay on his current pace.

Instead of looking to acquire one of the big-name pitchers from the list, I’d look to pick up some of these guys as free agents (if possible). Depending on your league setup, Nick Blackburn, #### Bonser, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jair Jurrjens might be available, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Pitchers to Shop

After failing to find any quality pitchers to target, let’s see if there are any pitchers you should be looking to trade away while their value is at its peak.

This list is considerably longer, but it also includes guys I’d be much more willing to make a move on than the previous list. Several of these guys are the type you’ll want to hold onto unless you are offered more than full value for (such as Peavy, Webb, etc.), so I’ll just pick out a few guys that I think should be offered to the gullible owner in your league.

Scott Olsen has only given up one run in his last three starts while going 7+ innings each time. After a closer look, you start to wonder how it’s being done. In the first game of the streak, he struck out three Braves, gave up 5 hits, and walked no one. In the second game, he struck out three Nationals, gave up 3 hits, including a HR to Hanley Ramirez, and walked 2. In his last outing, he struck out zero, gave up 4 hits, and walked 5. It is a rare outing where you walk 5 guys and give up no runs. In those three outings, he walked one more than he struck out (6). That’s not a good sign for the future, and now is a good time to cash out.

Like Olsen, Shawn Chacon has walked as many guys as he’s struck out this season. He is also coming off an outing where he got lucky. In 7 innings against the Cardinals, Chacon struck out 3, walked 6, and allowed 5 hits. That amounted to 2 runs, 1 earned. In addition to his inability to keep guys off the bases via the walk, Chacon has a lengthy track record of not being that good. If you can get somebody to buy high on Chacon, give yourself a pat on the back.

Unlike Olsen and Chacon, Carlos Silva has never been one to walk too many guys in a season. In his best season, he walked 9 guys in 188.1 IP. However, he has also never struck out more than 89 guys in one season. When you rely on your defense as much as Silva does, it’s hard to post a sub-4.00 ERA. For that reason, you can expect Silva’s ERA to jump up as the season progresses. When you combine that with the fact that Silva won’t be helping you in the K category anytime soon, you’ll want to look to put this guy on someone else’s roster before reality sets in.

If you drafted Cliff Lee, congratulations, you’ve gotten a four-game start to the season that is far beyond any reasonable expectations for any starting pitcher (Johan Santana included). The good news is that his peripherals are outstanding (29:2 K/BB ratio), but there’s nothing in his track record that suggests he’ll end up with a sub-3.50 ERA. Lee’s season statistics will definitely command interest on the trade market, and although you won’t get full value for those statistics, you should get considerably more in trade than you can expect from Lee the rest of the way.

Ryan Dempster returned to the starting rotation for the first time in 5 years, and although he could pitch as well as Braden Looper did last year, I wouldn’t expect it. In his last two years as a starter (2002 and 2003), Dempster had ERAs of 5.38 and 6.54. Over the last two years, he racked up 52 saves, but also blew 12 (81% save rate) while posting a 4.76 ERA. Dempster could put a good season as a starter, but I don’t think it will happen and neither should you. Convince someone that he’s back to his Marlin ways and get what you can.

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I hope you guys enjoyed this look at pitchers to target and pitchers to shop article. Over the next few months, I’ll probably post once a week, but I’m a little short on ideas. Last year, when I was writing the “Another One Bites the Dust” series, I planned to do that again this year with one per week, which would mean it would start next weekend. I have several reasons why I shouldn’t, but I’d like to hear what you think. If you have any thoughts on what you’d like me to write, put it in the comments and I’ll do my best to oblige. I don’t say this enough, but I truly appreciate all the feedback you give me.

Trading in fantasy sports is one of the best parts of the hobby, but often, there is uneasiness when it comes to strategizing for that big trade. Before making a trade, come up with a reason for making a trade first. Don’t trade just so you can say you made a trade. If you don’t have a plan, you’re probably going to screw up. I’m not claiming that I’m a great fantasy trader, but I like to think I know a thing or two. To come up with your own conclusions, I’ll list my trades that I’ve made last year and this year at the end. Yes, I’ve already made a post-draft trade in one league.

First of all, little trades are pointless. For example, take a trade that has happened in one of my leagues: Dmitri Young for Scott Rolen. Now, I’m not trying to call you guys out if you’re reading, but honestly, what’s the point? I didn’t even have either one on my pre-draft rankings. You swapped your last round picks. Is this much different than making a waiver claim?

If you want to make an impact, you’re going to have to give up something to get something. In my experience, there are a few reasons for making a trade:

1. You have more starter-caliber players at a position than you can put in an optimal lineup.

2. Someone else has more starter-caliber players at a position than you can put in an optimal lineup.

3. You’re slotted into the standings in a category but could really use some help in another category. (rotisserie leagues only)

4. You get the first pick when you really, really didn’t want it. (doesn’t apply to most people)

For the first example, I’ll go back to an auto-pick, 8-team draft I took part in last year, which happens to be the last auto-pick draft in which I will ever participate. Last year, I was on the bandwagon that catchers were extremely shallow, so you should pick one of the top catchers early on. Of course, my pre-draft rankings resembled those beliefs. In the third round, Joe Mauer was selected for me. I liked the pick, but my fifth round pick is where I got upset. In the fifth round, the computer selected Victor Martinez as my 1B. Martinez is one of the top catchers, but he’s a bottom-of-the-barrel fantasy first baseman. That’s not the end of the story, though. It had selected David Wright and Garrett Atkins before Prince Fielder came up on my rankings. Since Yahoo doesn’t allow its computer to select bench players before all starting roster spots are filled, it passed over Prince for SIX straight rounds until one team was able to “settle” on him as their starting first baseman. More to the point, I had arguably the top two catchers with only one catcher spot on the roster, so I knew somebody needed a catcher. I ended up trading Martinez, Jeff Francoeur, and Orlando Hudson for Vernon Wells and Felipe Lopez, which didn’t address my first base need but it was a pretty good deal at the time. Of course, Wells stunk up the joint, but hindsight is 20/20.

For the second, I’ll use a current league I’m in as an example. One particular team ended up with Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts. While he could use Roberts as his utility player, that’s not an optimal lineup. He can get someone in return that would better fit his team. When you put on top of it that he also drafted Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, he can really put one of those second basemen to better use as trade bait. Once you beat everyone in steals by one, every additional steal is worthless. If you need steals or a 2B and another team has extra players in a category or position like this, you might be able to get a player like Roberts for less than full price.

In rotisserie leagues, I’ve often found that I have too much of a certain category and need to improve in another. For me, it’s usually too many saves and not enough stolen bases. Last year, I was in a league using holds instead of WHIP. I complained that holds were a meaningless stat, but they wouldn’t budge so I put together a strategy that ended up taking advantage of this format. Too many people consider that the top holds guy will have about the same number of holds as the top saves guy has saves, so they value a hold equal to a save. That’s simply not the case. On any given night, there are typically only 30 guys that have a shot at a save, but there are over 150 guys with a shot at a hold. Closers are scarce; middle relievers are not. In the draft, I ended up with 6 closers. Once I built up a sizeable lead in saves by midseason, I looked for teams in need of saves, traded away my closers for help in other areas, and picked up middle relievers off the free agent list for holds. The key is that I didn’t need any more saves, but I could use some additional help in other areas. Since someone else needed saves, making a trade was pretty easy.

As for the fourth reason, this applies to this season. In my opinion, the only shortstops worth their average draft position (ADP) are Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Can you tell what position I want in the first round? For this reason, I did and do not want the #1 overall selection. When I ended up with the #1 overall pick last week, I was not happy. I took Alex Rodriguez, but at the end of the draft, I had J.J. Hardy as my shortstop. To correct this problem, I ended up trading Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez and Cole Hamels. Now, my third base spot is in the hands of one Dusty Baker. Baker is notorious for benching young, productive players for veterans, but hopefully, Edwin Encarnacion can prove to Baker that he deserves to start. If not, I’m pretty much up the creek. If I had selected Hanley in the first round, I would have taken Chipper Jones instead of John Smoltz in the fifth round (and still selected Encarnacion later), and everything would have been great. If I’m unfortunate enough to get the #1 pick again this year, I just might take Hanley instead.

Obviously, there are other reasons for making a trade, but I find these reasons as simple, easy ways to use trades to make your team better.

Here’s my list of trades I’ve made last year (4 leagues) and this year (1 league drafted) with the players I’m getting on the right:

1. Jeff Francoeur, Orlando Hudson, Victor Martinez for Vernon Wells and Felipe Lopez
2. Joakim Soria for Aaron Harang
   a. I’ve been in this league with friends for about 8 years. They haven’t learned that players can have bad stretches for no reason whatsoever. Harang had a 5.04 ERA. In his first game on my team, he threw a complete game and only gave up one run.
3. Ted Lilly for Todd Helton
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Valverde for Albert Pujols
   a. I’m not really sure what happened here. He must have been a big Gonzalez believer.
5. Todd Helton, Dan Wheeler, Dan Haren for Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard, Randy Johnson
   a. Wheeler was Astros’ closer. Haren had a 1.64 ERA. Howard was hitting .220 with 9 HRs.
6. Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, Jeremy Accardo for Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford
   a. Hudson and Hardy were off to hot starts and Accardo was a closer.
7. Corey Hart, Cole Hamels for Hanley Ramirez, Jose Valverde
8. Vernon Wells, Al Reyes for Manny Ramirez
9. Francisco Cordero for David Wright
   a. When people get desperate for a closer, it’s amazing what some people will do.
10. Francisco Cordero for C.C. Sabathia
11. Victor Martinez for Derek Jeter
12. Adam Dunn, Rich Hill for Alfonso Soriano
13. Derek Jeter, Dan Uggla for Orlando Hudson, Jose Reyes
14. Prince Fielder for Grady Sizemore
15. Manny Ramirez, Ian Snell for Carl Crawford, Kelvim Escobar
16. Lance Berkman for Carl Crawford
    a. See a speed trend? Soriano, Reyes, Sizemore, Crawford x2
17. Mike Lowell, Vladimir Guerrero, Gil Meche for David Wright, Javier Vazquez
18. Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne for Brian Roberts
19. Alfonso Soriano, Javier Vazquez for Jake Peavy
20. Al Reyes for Ray Durham
    a. Placement trade – I wanted movement in the saves category so that one of my fellow contenders would lose a point in the standings. I’m pretty sure I cut Durham a couple days after the trade.
21. Matt Holliday, Brett Myers, Kevin Gregg for Jake Peavy, Yovani Gallardo
22. Chad Cordero for Ryan Theriot
    a. See #20.
23. Kevin Gregg for Dan Wheeler
    a. See #22, but I kept Wheeler for holds.
24. Brad Lidge, Al Reyes for Pat Neshek
    a. See #23.
25. Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez, Cole Hamels

Takeaways

1. I’m glad I’m changing up the leagues I’m joining this year. I’m only returning to two of last year’s leagues. If you’re always successful in your leagues and your opponents aren’t that good, look for another league with better competition.
2. It’s hard to see why I made all these moves without knowing which teams go with what trades.
3. If I’m in your league, expect to get a trade proposal from me at some point this year.
4. When other team owners get desperate, be the first in line to make a trade. They just might agree to something they wouldn’t have two weeks ago.
5. Don’t limit yourself to the players on your roster. If you think your best lineup includes someone on another roster, find out what it takes to get that player. Just don’t pay too much for him.
6. Take advantage of the fantasy baseball system you are using. If their rankings place somebody higher than you think they should be, trade them away. If their rankings place somebody lower than they should be, trade for them.
7. Wheel and deal, have some fun, it’s only a game.

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I still have to finish up corner outfielders and pitchers on the other series, but I felt like now was the right time to post this article.

I recently used projected stats to find a baseline of replacement level for each position. Everything is set up for the standard 5x5 with 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 3 OF, and 1 U. In order to determine the replacement level at each position, I averaged the 12 "starters" and the top 12 "backups" to find an approximation of a replacement player. While this is far from perfect, it is a good start. In order to incorporate utility players, I increased the number of 1B starters to 15, 3B starters to 13, and OF starters to 41 (from 36). I also used 3 DH: Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome. For calculating replacement level for DH, I used 1B, 3B, and OF to get a rough estimate. It ends up penalizing the DH for having no speed, but they deserve a penalty for position inflexibility so it evens out. Below you will find the replacement levels I found:

Position               R   HR   RBI   SB    AVG
Catcher              57    14    60      2    0.278
First Base         77    23    80      2     0.283
Second Base   83    15    65    15    0.281
Third Base        83    23    82      7    0.280
Shortstop          82    15    67    15    0.283
Outfielder          80    19    72    11    0.283
DH                     80     21    76     8     0.282

As expected, catcher comes out much lower than the other positions, 1B and 3B are big-time power positions, 2B and SS revolve around runs and stolen bases, OF is a 5 category position, and DHs better be good to warrant locking up your utility spot. It turns out that batting average is pretty much the same across all positions. Other than catchers, the same can be said for runs. The playing time hit for catchers really holds them back. I hope this might help others preparing for their fantasy baseball leagues (as long as you're not in mine), and I welcome all questions/comments/suggestions that might lead me to improving the baselines.