The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

With the two behemoths at the top of the AL East, nobody gave the Orioles much of a chance, and lately, Baltimore has made an emphatic showing why by losing 18 of their last 21 since Dave Trembley was named their 2008 manager. They're statistical chances of making the playoffs ended back on August 30, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.

The Good

Nick Markakis has continued to surprise at the major league level. After jumping to the major leagues without a full season above A-ball, Markakis slumped at the beginning of 2006 hitting .268/.335/.348 in the first half. After the slow start, Markakis broke out to the tune of .311/.364/.532 after the all-star break. He hasn't quite continued that pace in 2007 as he'#### for less power (.293/.360/.474), but that is still pretty impressive for a 23-year old. Although his rest deprivation streak ended due to a fractured forearm, Miguel Tejada has continued to age well despite a continued loss in power. Tejada's slugging percentages have dropped each of the last three years going from .534 in 2004 to .515 in 2005, .498 in 2006, and .461 this year. Despite this loss in power, Tejada continues to be one of the better hitting shortstops. Across the field from Tejada, Brian Roberts has proven to be one of the best second baseman in the game as he's upped his OBP from .347 in 2006 to .381 this year. He probably will never regain that power from the beginning of 2005, but he's a star without it.

On the hill, the Orioles have experienced two breakouts in Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie. Bedard would have a shot at the strikeout title if he wasn't recently shut down for the season. Although he won't win any awards, Bedard has increased his strikeout rate while maintaining his home run and walk rates from last year. Guthrie has been a major surprise to both the Orioles and the Indians. Back in January, the Indians designated Guthrie for assignment and he was picked up by the Orioles. The Indians had given him shots each of the last years (granted, they weren't extended shots), and he has failed to produce each time. At 27 (now 28), the Indians decided to cut bait. With the Orioles, Guthrie simply managed a 3.65 ERA over 170.1 innings.

The Bad

The Orioles have been accused of ignoring the hitter spots in the field for years, and it was never more evident than their 2007 left fielders. Jay Gibbons, recently mentioned in the Signature Pharmacy investigation for having received hGH and steroid shipments, and Jay Payton have been terrible at the plate with .230/.274/.348 and .251/.289/.351 lines, respectively. With the way that they've sacrificed the corner infield and corner outfield positions over the years, the Orioles haven't been able to capitalize on one of the best hitting double play tandems in the game.

After misjudging the market last year, the Orioles transitioned to spending their free agent money on "proven" bullpen arms. They would have been better off investing the money elsewhere. Teams need to start to realize that they don't have to meet the owner's budget every year. If there isn't anyone available at your price this year, wait until next year. You should have a close enough relationship with ownership to make this possible, but I digress. The relievers that were brought in have combined for an ERA of 4.22 at a combined cost of $11M - not exactly smart spending there. They could have found 4 minor league relievers that would combine for an ERA of 4.22 for ~$1.5M.

In addition to their bullpen free agent failings, the Orioles spent $14.5M on 10.1 innings from Jaret Wright and Kris Benson. Wright has yet to make 15 starts in consecutive seasons since 1999. Why anyone thought he was a wise investment is beyond me. Likewise, trading John Maine (and Jorge Julio) for Benson has proven to be regrettable.

Looking Forward

In their division with the Red Sox and Yankees always fielding great teams and a team on the rise in the form of the Devil Rays, it might be best for the Orioles to blow this thing up. Unfortunately for them, only Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada would get them much in return as trading Markakis or Bedard would just defeat the purpose. For the Orioles to ever compete, they need to stop blowing money on mediocre free agents and concentrate on building up that minor league system. Without inexpensive top-tier talent being pumped through the system, it is nearly impossible for a team to compete. They are on the right track with the drafting of Matt Wieters, but they need to do more to become a contender year-in and year-out.