If the Yankees win one more game or the Athletics lose one more game, Oakland will be completely eliminated from the playoff race. What's the probability of either one of those two things happening, let alone both? Zero.
The Good
Joe Blanton and Dan Haren have been about as good a 1-2 as can be found in the big leagues. Although Haren has seen his ERA go up for 17 straight starts, that's more a testament to how great he was to start the year than anything else. On June 9th, Haren's ERA was a measly 1.58. Since then, he has posted a 4.23 ERA, which puts him at the 3.11 ERA he has for the season. Their pitching staff can again thank their defense for good support in the field, led by Mark Ellis. Ellis continues to be one of the most underrated second baseman in the game. He doesn't consistently put up good numbers offensively, sitting at .276/.339/.440, but he does a great job in the field.
On the offensive side of things, Nick Swisher continues to be one of the best picks from the Moneyball draft. Several of last year's home runs have turned into doubles this year, but he improved his on-base percentage to .385, demonstrating the disciplined Oakland A approach at the plate. However, his disciplined approach is topped by midseason acquisition Jack Cust, who is currently hitting .257/.401/.510. Observers are quickly turned off by Cust's strikeouts (141 strikeouts in 343 at bats), and that has limited his opportunities to prove himself at the big leagues. Getting his first shot at more than 100 plate appearances in the majors, Cust has proven that he can hit at this level. His horrible defense makes him more of a DH than an outfielder, but Cust is a good example of just another way Billy Beane has been able to find inefficiencies in the player market.
The other positive happened on July 16. Not only did the A's find a taker for Jason Kendall and his .226/.261/.281 line, they got actual talent back in Jerry Blevins and Rob Bowen. In addition, it freed up a spot so that they could find out what they have in Kurt Suzuki, and Suzuki looks to be their long-term solution behind the plate.
The Bad
Injuries hit this team hard, but that shouldn't have been much of a surprise to A's fans. Injuries are one thing that Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, Mark Kotsay, Rich Harden, and Mike Piazza have had in common in their careers. If they can ever keep their talent on the field, the Athletics would have a really good team.
Looking Forward
In terms of talent, the Athletics have what it takes to field a contender. It is all a matter of whether or not they can actually keep their talent on the field. Their trainers have a disadvantage in terms of what they have to work with, but they could be the difference makers for the A's going forward. As far as preparing the roster for next season, Billy Beane and company just need to make sure they have adequate replacements for the sure-fire injuries that will take place.
First Tier 1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.
2. David Wright, New York Mets Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.
5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.
Second Tier 6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.
7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.
8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.
9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.
Third Tier 10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals 11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.
Fourth Tier 12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds 13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox 14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics 15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers 16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres
If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.
Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.
Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
