I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

I've been thinking about the format of these posts, and I'm going to try something new. Instead of looking at what was good or bad about this past season, I'm going to take a more forward-looking view by looking at the team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.

In addition, I was hoping that I would start catching up to when teams are actually being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened yet. The next team was officially eliminated from the NL Central this past Wednesday as the Reds lost to the Cubs 3-2.

Strengths 

Even after trading away two of their young outfielders last year in Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, the Reds are once again loaded with outfielders as long as Wayne Krivsky and company make the right choice regarding Adam Dunn's option. His club option is for $13M (could be $16M based on award bonuses, but Dunn doesn't get enough praise to win awards) and will activate a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade (Dunn has to pick 10 teams to which he would accept a trade). Dunn's batting average will probably not be this high again (and .264 isn't that high), but he will be the only player to have hit 40 HR in each of the last four seasons unless either David Ortiz or Albert Pujols hit 9 homers the rest of the way. Although Ken Griffey, Jr. has been shut down the rest of the season, he should be healthy going into 2008. If he can stay healthy is another question altogether. With those two in the corners, Josh Hamilton has surprised many by showing that he is ready for the major leagues. He should also be healthy going into next year despite being out for the rest of the season with a hamstring strain. Another injury has taken Ryan Freel out, but he should be back next year as well. If those four aren't enough, Jay Bruce has been lights out in the minors all year, prompting Baseball Prospectus's prospect guru Kevin Goldstein to declare "Jay Bruce is too good for the minor leagues" in his annual CF Prospect Rankings. Bruce will be following in Joey Votto's shoes, who has staked out his claim to the everyday first base spot in Cincinnati by hitting .353/.411/.549 in 51 at bats since his call-up on the heels of a .294/.381/.478 season at AAA Louisville. With Brandon Phillips at the keystone and Edwin Encarnacion at the hot corner, the Reds are on the verge of having another good offense in the hitters' paradise of Great American Ball Park.

The Reds' rotation also looks to be on the way up as Aaron Harang continues to show that he is a legit #1 pitcher with a 3.61 ERA over 216.2 innings while pitching in the aforementioned hitters' paradise. As the #2 starter, Bronson Arroyo had some slip-ups this year, but a lot of those can be attributed to being overworked in early May. He had consecutive outings of 120, 117, and 129 pitches, which were followed up by six starts in which he gave up 35 runs over 29.2 innings. Back on July 27th, he was kept out there for 123 pitches and proceeded to give up 7 runs over 1.2 in his next start. I know that it isn't correct to just remove those bad starts, but if you just remove those six straight starts in late May and early June, his ERA falls to 3.32 from the 4.37 he currently sports. The Reds manager next year, if it's Pete Mackanin or somebody else, needs to make sure to not overwork Arroyo next year, or he might end up with a broken Arroyo for the next month, or worse. Future additions to the rotation include Homer Bailey, touted as a future #1 by scouts heading into this year, and Johnny Cueto. Bailey has had a rough year, although he returned to the big leagues Thursday in San Francisco and got the win by going 5.2 and only allowing one run. He was kept on a pretty tight leash as he was held to only 80 pitches in his first start since being sidelined with a groin strain. Cueto will most likely start the season at AAA, but if he pitches well, he could be slotted into the rotation midseason.

Weaknesses

The bullpen in Cincinnati has been terrible once again. David Weathers and Jared Burton seem to be the only guys that can be relied upon in the bullpen. Once you remove the starting pitchers from the equation, the Reds' bullpen has an ERA of 5.06. If you further remove Weathers and Burton, that figure jumps to 5.74. While they need to fix the bullpen, the Reds have always approached this situation the wrong way. Instead of throwing money at veterans like they have with Mike Stanton ($2M for a 6.11 ERA, $3M for next year, and a $500K buyout for 2009), they should find hard-throwing pitchers that other organizations have given up on and see what they can get out of them. Burton was a Rule 5 pick this past winter, and Jon Coutlangus was a waiver claim. The two of them combined for $760K and a 3.25 ERA over 83 innings. Coutlangus can be a good LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) if he stops walking them around the bases. Left-handers only managed a .206 average against him, but Coutlangus has given up 16 walks in 17.1 innings against lefties.

Overall

The Reds might need to sign one or two league-average starting pitchers for 2008 to be able to compete, but they shouldn't sign any FA pitcher to a long-term deal. If they can get a good deal on just one starter, they could be setting themselves up for a run at the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central in 2009 and beyond. It'll be tough to top the Brewers over the next four or five years, but with the young talent coming up, the Reds just might have a shot.

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.

---

Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.