As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.

Trade Market

One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts. Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due $6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts and Ellis should be on their ways out.

As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year, $15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had 70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.

The next tier of teams that should be interested in upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years. Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.

The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart. If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third. One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.

Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot (assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa, Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their ’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.

Contract Extensions

Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At 30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.

When looking at young second baseman worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration, so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005 before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club. Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before awarding him with a big-time contract.

Recap

Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree. The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks.

The Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the second time in four years, but this one seems to be more of a Theo Epstein construction than the last one. The transition to becoming a team based on its farm system is underway, and Theo looks to be continuing the Red Sox winning ways for many years to come.

Strengths

Well, for one, they’re the defending champions. Two, unlike their last World Series winner, most of this team is under contract for next year. Third baseman Mike Lowell is the only key player that is a free agent after Curt Schilling signed a one-year $8M deal, which can increase up to $13M if he earns all of the bonuses.

When talking about the Red Sox, the conversation usually starts at the middle of the lineup. When David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have been in the middle of the order for as long as they have, it’s hard not to start there. Both of these players were perceived to have slumped this year, but Ortiz’s “slump” was actually a career year. It might be the first year in four that he didn’t hit 40 home runs, but his OBP climbed up to .445, a huge jump from his previous career high of .413 set last year. Plus, his SLG only fell 15 points from .636 to .621. Hitting 52 doubles makes up for the drop in home runs. Meanwhile, Manny really did slump, having the worst year of his major league career since he had 53 at bats as a 21-year old. When your worst season is .296/.388/.493, you know you’re good. Papi and Manny were given ample opportunities to drive in runners because the Greek God of Walks Kevin Youkilis, and his .390 OBP, was batting in front of them.

PECOTA darling Dustin Pedroia overcame a slow start (.182/.308/.236 in April) to hit .317/.380/.442 and take home the IBA AL Rookie of the Year award. Pedroia wasn’t the only homegrown prospect to make an appearance for the Red Sox. He was joined by Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. Ellsbury started the year on fire at AA, where he hit .452/.518/.644 in 73 at bats, before cooling off at AAA. In 363 at bats in the International League, Ellsbury hit .298/.360/.380. During a September call-up, he again caught fire with a .353/.394/.509 line in 116 major league at bats. He wasn’t the only Red Sox rookie to have a hot start to his major league career as Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz posted ERAs of 1.77, 3.96, and 1.59 in AA (86.2 IP), AAA (38.2 IP), and MLB (22.2 IP). Delcarmen was up to stay in mid-June and proved he belonged with a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief innings. Last but not least, Lester spent the off-season recovering from lymphoma, and after proving his health in AAA Pawtucket, he rejoined the Red Sox rotation in late July and pitched his way to a 4.57 ERA in 63 innings.

Of course, Ortiz, Ramirez, Youkilis, and the youngsters couldn’t have done it without their outstanding pitching staff. Josh Beckett finished second in the IBA voting for AL Cy Young behind C.C. Sabathia, but finishing second for the Cy Young still requires a phenomenal year. Beckett definitely had that with a 3.27 ERA over 200.2 innings. He was backed by Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and the two youngsters Buchholz and Lester. Schilling only threw 151 innings due to an injury and the Red Sox massive lead in the AL East, while Matsuzaka disappointed some in his first big league season. Before you get too down on Matsuzaka, a 4.40 ERA when half of your games are in Fenway Park isn’t a bad thing. He’s my candidate to take a massive step forward a la Beckett this season. All six guys that have already been mentioned will most likely be back in 2008 (unless the Red Sox find some reason to turn down Wakefield’s perpetual $4M team option). Since the Red Sox are well-known for their sabermetric understanding, they will find ways to get all six guys into the mix. The scenario I envision is Wakefield in the pen and spotting in for Lester and Buchholz to keep the innings off their young arms. Of course, any injury to a SP would force the remaining five to take their turns every time through the rotation.

Backing up the rotation in the later innings is a phenomenal bullpen. Led by Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, Terry Francona has it easy when he goes to the bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings. Plus, when you’ve got Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, and whoever gets left out of the rotation, it’s not like the earlier innings are hard to endure.

Concerns

World Series MVP Mike Lowell is a free agent. While much of the talk is about Alex Rodriguez right now, the Red Sox have expressed interest in re-signing Lowell. If Lowell signs elsewhere, talk will surely head to Rodriguez, but don’t forget that Youkilis can play third base, which means they can bring in someone to play either one of the corner infield spots. There aren’t really any good first basemen on the free agent market, but they could always get Ortiz out on the field. Before you think about his “horrific” defense, putting him at first frees up the DH spot for Manny. If you replace LF Ramirez, 3B Lowell, and 1B Youkilis with LF Coco Crisp/Ellsbury, 3B Youkilis, and 1B Ortiz, do you really lose anything on defense? Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics suggest that you actually gain defense with this arrangement, and whatever you lose on offense is okay because the Red Sox would still be the best team in the AL East and a good bet to return to the postseason.

Last offseason, Julio Lugo was brought in to provide good offense and defense from the shortstop spot? He provided neither. With $27M and three years left on the deal, he’s not exactly easily dealt either. The Red Sox best decision would be to give him another shot next year and hope he can prove his worth over the first half of the year. Regardless of his first half performance, their midseason decision would be based on Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie can continue his hot hitting (.298/.393/.503 split between AA and AAA) next year, he’ll be an easy choice to replace Lugo. If Lugo performs poorly, it’s time to cut bait and replace him with Lowrie. If Lugo performs well, it’s time to trade him and replace him with Lowrie.

Overall

After a World Series championship, it’s easy to expect the Red Sox to put forth a valiant effort to repeat. While they’re expected to make it back to the postseason, everyone knows that the postseason is a crapshoot so it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have the decision of whether or not to bring back Mike Lowell as a luxury item (they don’t need him) and how to handle their shortstop situation. Next offseason will be more interesting with Manny’s and Jason Varitek’s contracts expiring. In the meantime, Red Sox fans, enjoy your championship and I’ll expect to see you again next postseason.