First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’s hit .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.

Moving on to the AL Central, it was thought that 2008 and beyond would be a battle between the Indians and Tigers, but there has been some considerable movement in the division with more to come. The Tigers jumped out ahead with their acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, and the White Sox have forced their way back into the picture, but what should Central teams do going forward?

Chicago White Sox – Their acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, and Nick Swisher have changed up their positional outlook this offseason. Without left field as a possible destination to the loser of the 3B battle between Joe Crede and Josh Fields, the White Sox need to find a taker for Crede. Of course, this requires him to prove that he’s healthy and his swing is back. For the White Sox, they hope that he can do that in spring training. In addition, Juan Uribe is now their backup shortstop. Looking around the league, there are a few teams with worse starting shortstops, making him another piece of trade bait. In return, the White Sox could use some bullpen help. A free agent SP wouldn’t be a bad idea either. Nothing against John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but would you trust both to hold their spot in the rotation when your competitors are the Tigers and Indians? Of course, your options are limited, but when you paint yourself into a corner like the White Sox have (not a strong pick to win the division and a weak farm system), what would you expect?

Cleveland Indians – Coming off their ALCS appearance, only Kenny Lofton isn’t back with the team, but it’s disappointing that they haven’t brought in something more than Masahide Kobayashi. Three of their corners are manned by Casey Blake, Jason Michaels/David Dellucci, and Franklyn Gutierrez. Their up-the-middle players are strong offensively, but they could use some help from the spots that are your traditional offensive players. There were some rumors they were looking to acquire Jason Bay, but the only free agent that would be an improvement is Barry Bonds. I don’t see that happening. Moving elsewhere, the Indians are trying to re-sign C.C. Sabathia, and well, they should be. Sabathia is the only member of their core that is a free agent before the end of the 2010 season. Talk about being set up well for the next few years – young team coming off an ALCS appearance with only one potentially major free agent loss before 2011.

Detroit Tigers – The Tigers shocked quite a few people with their aggressiveness at the winter meetings. They got two years of both Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for less than the rumored deals for one year of Johan Santana. With the prior trade for Edgar Renteria, the Tigers are pretty much set for 2008. Brandon Inge is an interesting trade chip, and they could use another arm for the bullpen, but does anyone still consider Inge a major-league starter at 3B? I don’t think so, which leaves signing players to extensions. The only guy I’d consider that with is Miguel Cabrera, but are you really sure whether he’ll be a 3B or a 1B in two years? I think that question mark is enough to postpone extension talks to next offseason.

Kansas City Royals – You can start to see their 2010 team coming together here if you squint hard enough. Alberto Callaspo at 2B, Alex Gordon at 3B, Jose Guillen in LF, David DeJesus in CF, Mark Teahen in RF, Billy (edited) Butler at DH, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar in the rotation, and Joakim Soria at closer. I don’t agree fully with the methods they’re using – Guillen for $12M per year, really? – but at least there’s a long-term plan in place. That’s better than some organizations. The only suggestion I have for this offseason is to trade Brian Bannister. His value won’t get any higher, and in the end, he’s nothing more than back of the rotation filler (4.2 K/9).

Minnesota Twins – With the loss of Torii Hunter and the improvements made by the Tigers, White Sox, and Indians (young team with another year of experience), the Twins need to make a Johan Santana deal and a Joe Nathan deal. Given the rumors, they agree on the Santana front and used to agree on the Nathan front. I haven’t heard many Nathan rumors lately. If Mike Cuddyer is having a good year at the trade deadline, they could look into trading him as well. He’s a free agent after the ’09 season, and it’s not like the Twins will jump back to the top of the division in 2009 with Santana and Nathan in the rear-view mirror.

After appearing in the 2006 World Series, expectations were high in the Motor City. After acquiring Gary Sheffield from the Yankees, expectations grew. Unfortunately, those expectations are going to go unfulfilled. With the next Yankee victory or the next Tiger loss, the Detroit Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff race.

Strengths

The offense is currently ranked third in the major leagues in runs scored, and with all of the productive players under contract for next year, they should remain a high-scoring team in 2008. Only two of their starters are free agents this offseason: Ivan Rodriguez and Sean Casey. Usually, excluding Pudge from the productive player group would result in a great deal of retaliation from others, but when you can't get your OBP over .300, it's hard to be productive. No one will argue that Rodriguez is still a great defensive catcher, and when you've got a crew of hitters around him, that's what makes him a worthwhile investment. At 35, you can't expect him to hit .347/.375/.667 like he did in 2000 with the Rangers, but if he can get back to last year's .300/.332/.437, that's pretty good for a catcher. Another year of .280/.293/.420 or worse will signify that even Pudge has to answer to Father Time eventually. If Pudge is your biggest positional problem, you must be doing something right.

The other free agent Sean Casey has spent years being horrible, but for some reason, his on-field performance gets overlooked in favor of his clubhouse leadership and ability to handle the media. It's been three years since Casey has had a productive season at the plate, and a defensive first baseman just isn't worth all that much. After hitting .296/.353/.396 this year, Casey appears to be headed out of Detroit with talk of shortstop Carlos Guillen moving over to first base. Guillen is one of the most underrated players today, and his .293/.354/.493 line has nearly 100 points in the SLG department over Casey. That will be an improvement. As far as replacing Guillen at shortstop, there has been a lot of talk of the Tigers acquiring Jack Wilson in the offseason. Wilson's defense is a big improvement over Guillen's, and his bat isn't any worse than Casey's. By replacing Casey with Wilson, they improve the defense without harming the offense.

Making up the heart of the Tiger offense are Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson has been talked about lately by being one of only a handful to accomplish 20 2B, 20 3B, 20 HR, and 20 SB in one season, and Ordonez is often mentioned in the AL MVP discussion. He doesn't have a chance of beating Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he proved that he is back to his pre-injury form. Joining Ordonez and Granderson in the lineup are Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Gary Sheffield. Polanco is putting up a huge season at 2B, and Sheffield has done well coming off of and dealing with his shoulder injuries. He's scheduled to have surgery in the offseason. With his age and his shoulder problems, it should be interesting to see how many more years he can maintain that tremendous bat speed he has. On the other hand, Inge seems to have lost the home run power he displayed in 2006, which appears to be a career year. With a career high of 16 home runs coming into the season, Inge hit 27 home runs last year, but he has only hit 14 this year. Having signed a four-year extension back in December, the Tigers are betting that he can turn it back around. Out in left field, the Tigers tried to push Cameron Maybin up to the big leagues this year, but at 20 years old, he doesn't look ready. After hitting .316/.409/.523 combined through three minor league levels, he's only hit .152/.220/.283 in the majors. He'll probably start 2008 at either AA or AAA and could possibly make his return midseason. Until that time, Marcus Thames will be the left fielder. Thames has always had power, but he needs to get on base more often.

Weaknesses

After a great 2006, the pitching staff has been the team's weakness this year and heading into 2008. It is more a question of durability than it is a question of talent. Justin Verlander has held up so far, but there have been question marks about his workload even before he made it to the major league club. The guy that is supposed to be his co-ace, Jeremy Bonderman, was shut down a few weeks ago due to right elbow inflammation. Bonderman was handled carefully throughout his development, but the second half of 2007 has been a disaster (7.38 ERA since the All-Star break). It makes you question if he was hiding the pain from the coaching staff for a while. While Nate Robertson has put together yet another solid season in the middle of the rotation, Kenny Rogers started the year on the DL and hasn't been as effective since making his return. He'll be a free agent, and the Tigers could be entering a transitional stage as they have a couple young arms coming up the ranks in Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens. Whether they re-sign Rogers or go with the young guns, the Tigers have several question marks here going forward.

The question marks don't end in the rotation. Todd Jones will be entering free agency, Joel Zumaya hasn't been the same since rupturing a tendon in his middle finger, and Fernando Rodney hasn't been the same this year. Jones has spent much of his career in a Tiger uniform so there might be some loyalty built up in that relationship, but relievers that have "proven" themselves as a closer generally command big money on the market. Zumaya had a 3.63 ERA before the injury but a 5.28 ERA after. Rodney has a 4.10 ERA over 48.1 inning this year after a 2006 season with a 3.52 ERA over 71.2 innings last year.

Overall

The Tigers have several question marks heading into 2008. First and foremost, they need their young pitchers (starters and relievers) to be healthy and effective. Additionally, the Tigers should try to keep Ivan Rodriguez and Todd Jones in Detroit. If Maybin can make his way back to the majors next year and prove himself when he gets called up, he'll be a big lift to the Tigers both offensively and defensively (he's a legit center fielder, who will be playing a corner). Things will need to improve next year for the Tigers to knock off the Indians and win their first division title since they won the AL East back in 1987.