Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery.
After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents
in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would
perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived
playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team
is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership
will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they
should be back in contention for the Central once again.
Strengths
Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never
will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still
an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis
Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability
towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that
lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).
Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers.
Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he
eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings.
Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very
similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in
both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos
Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In
2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47
in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing
his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out
of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up
14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1
major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from
a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on
to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of
2.68 is still pretty dominant.
Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing
on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s
job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA
in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate
appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to
lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno
(.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that
there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new
ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually
take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.
Concerns
If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm
system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore
and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel
is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old
pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team
possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a
capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that
should start in Baltimore next season.
Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field,
Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a
.202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at
shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the
position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is
probably best used in a utility role.
As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as
eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder
and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions
are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit
lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of
his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual
option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s
also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit
.326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit
.281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.
It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back
to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason
Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m
not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run
with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another
guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched
well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league
innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a
logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in
less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time
will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.
Overall
As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship
has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their
offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the
road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the
organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good
shape.
Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning
Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be
moving on.
It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.
First Tier 1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals #1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.
Second Tier 2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.
Third Tier 3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.
Fourth Tier 4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.
5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.
Fifth Tier 6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.
7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.
8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.
Sixth Tier 9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.
10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.
11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.
Seventh Tier 12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates 13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners 14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.
Eighth Tier 15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets 16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres 17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks 18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox 19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.
I probably won't be getting to second basemen until next week, but keep the comments coming.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
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MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
