I've been thinking about the format of these posts, and I'm going to try something new. Instead of looking at what was good or bad about this past season, I'm going to take a more forward-looking view by looking at the team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.

In addition, I was hoping that I would start catching up to when teams are actually being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened yet. The next team was officially eliminated from the NL Central this past Wednesday as the Reds lost to the Cubs 3-2.

Strengths 

Even after trading away two of their young outfielders last year in Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, the Reds are once again loaded with outfielders as long as Wayne Krivsky and company make the right choice regarding Adam Dunn's option. His club option is for $13M (could be $16M based on award bonuses, but Dunn doesn't get enough praise to win awards) and will activate a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade (Dunn has to pick 10 teams to which he would accept a trade). Dunn's batting average will probably not be this high again (and .264 isn't that high), but he will be the only player to have hit 40 HR in each of the last four seasons unless either David Ortiz or Albert Pujols hit 9 homers the rest of the way. Although Ken Griffey, Jr. has been shut down the rest of the season, he should be healthy going into 2008. If he can stay healthy is another question altogether. With those two in the corners, Josh Hamilton has surprised many by showing that he is ready for the major leagues. He should also be healthy going into next year despite being out for the rest of the season with a hamstring strain. Another injury has taken Ryan Freel out, but he should be back next year as well. If those four aren't enough, Jay Bruce has been lights out in the minors all year, prompting Baseball Prospectus's prospect guru Kevin Goldstein to declare "Jay Bruce is too good for the minor leagues" in his annual CF Prospect Rankings. Bruce will be following in Joey Votto's shoes, who has staked out his claim to the everyday first base spot in Cincinnati by hitting .353/.411/.549 in 51 at bats since his call-up on the heels of a .294/.381/.478 season at AAA Louisville. With Brandon Phillips at the keystone and Edwin Encarnacion at the hot corner, the Reds are on the verge of having another good offense in the hitters' paradise of Great American Ball Park.

The Reds' rotation also looks to be on the way up as Aaron Harang continues to show that he is a legit #1 pitcher with a 3.61 ERA over 216.2 innings while pitching in the aforementioned hitters' paradise. As the #2 starter, Bronson Arroyo had some slip-ups this year, but a lot of those can be attributed to being overworked in early May. He had consecutive outings of 120, 117, and 129 pitches, which were followed up by six starts in which he gave up 35 runs over 29.2 innings. Back on July 27th, he was kept out there for 123 pitches and proceeded to give up 7 runs over 1.2 in his next start. I know that it isn't correct to just remove those bad starts, but if you just remove those six straight starts in late May and early June, his ERA falls to 3.32 from the 4.37 he currently sports. The Reds manager next year, if it's Pete Mackanin or somebody else, needs to make sure to not overwork Arroyo next year, or he might end up with a broken Arroyo for the next month, or worse. Future additions to the rotation include Homer Bailey, touted as a future #1 by scouts heading into this year, and Johnny Cueto. Bailey has had a rough year, although he returned to the big leagues Thursday in San Francisco and got the win by going 5.2 and only allowing one run. He was kept on a pretty tight leash as he was held to only 80 pitches in his first start since being sidelined with a groin strain. Cueto will most likely start the season at AAA, but if he pitches well, he could be slotted into the rotation midseason.

Weaknesses

The bullpen in Cincinnati has been terrible once again. David Weathers and Jared Burton seem to be the only guys that can be relied upon in the bullpen. Once you remove the starting pitchers from the equation, the Reds' bullpen has an ERA of 5.06. If you further remove Weathers and Burton, that figure jumps to 5.74. While they need to fix the bullpen, the Reds have always approached this situation the wrong way. Instead of throwing money at veterans like they have with Mike Stanton ($2M for a 6.11 ERA, $3M for next year, and a $500K buyout for 2009), they should find hard-throwing pitchers that other organizations have given up on and see what they can get out of them. Burton was a Rule 5 pick this past winter, and Jon Coutlangus was a waiver claim. The two of them combined for $760K and a 3.25 ERA over 83 innings. Coutlangus can be a good LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) if he stops walking them around the bases. Left-handers only managed a .206 average against him, but Coutlangus has given up 16 walks in 17.1 innings against lefties.

Overall

The Reds might need to sign one or two league-average starting pitchers for 2008 to be able to compete, but they shouldn't sign any FA pitcher to a long-term deal. If they can get a good deal on just one starter, they could be setting themselves up for a run at the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central in 2009 and beyond. It'll be tough to top the Brewers over the next four or five years, but with the young talent coming up, the Reds just might have a shot.

When managers use relief pitchers, they tend to go with matchups. A lefty up at the plate signals that a LHP should be brought into the game and the same for righties. If this is the best usage of a team's relief pitchers, then why isn't this situational usage continued into the ninth inning? For example, the Reds had Mike Stanton and David Weathers warming up in the eighth, but Aaron Harang was able to finish the inning. Since Harang had thrown 113 pitches, Pete Mackanin brought in Weathers to start the ninth. With Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Jeff Salazar due up, why didn't Stanton get brought in for the save since Drew and Salazar are left-handed?

While I'm not convinced that situational usage is the best use of a team's bullpen (and their roster spots due to more relievers being needed for this use pattern), I wonder why a manager thinks it is smart to adhere to situational matchups in the middle innings but not the ninth. It doesn't seem like any logical thought has actually been applied to this by a manager.

P.S. I'm watching the Reds-Diamondbacks on DVR, so I actually wrote this before seeing Weathers blow the save.

Later on in the bottom of the tenth, the Reds had runners on first and second with no outs and Brandon Phillips up in a tie game. On the first two pitches, he was bunting. Why in the world would a cleanup hitter be bunting in that situation? A base hit wins the game, and you've got three chances to get that hit. Why would you give up one of those at-bats to get runners on first and second with one out? Sure, it gives you the chance to hit a sacrifice fly to win the game, but which of the following situations would you choose:

1. Three chances at a base hit to win the game.

2. One chance at a base hit or sac fly and an additional chance at a base hit.

I'd take the first choice 100 times out of a 100.