As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.

Trade Market

One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts. Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due $6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts and Ellis should be on their ways out.

As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year, $15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had 70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.

The next tier of teams that should be interested in upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years. Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.

The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart. If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third. One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.

Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot (assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa, Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their ’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.

Contract Extensions

Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At 30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.

When looking at young second baseman worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration, so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005 before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club. Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before awarding him with a big-time contract.

Recap

Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree. The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks.

Staying in the state of Florida, the Marlins' chances for the postseason first reached less than 1 in a million back on August 28th in the BP Postseason Odds Report, nearly a month and a half after the first team in this series.

The Good

Hanley Ramirez has become one of the best players in the major leagues, joining teammate Miguel Cabrera in that category, although they still might not be the best left side of the infield in their own division - thanks to the Met duo of Jose Reyes and David Wright. Jeremy Hermida has stayed healthy, which is a first at the big league level, and he's brought some of that famous minor-league OBP (.457 in AA in 2005) with him by hitting .288/.365/.496. Former Rule 5 pickup Dan Uggla has not only maintained his power from last year, he's increased it. Now if he could only find last year's batting average back...

Other than the high-profile acquisitions and failings (high-profile for the Marlins anyway) of Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez, the Marlins have been able to assemble a pretty good bullpen with Kevin Gregg collecting the saves after hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, and Lee Gardner have pitched the middle innings.

The Bad

After Joe Girardi worked the starting rotation to the bone last season chasing after the wild card and his Manager of the Year award, the young starters have predictably fallen apart. Josh Johnson only threw 37.1 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery to fix a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Ricky Nolasco has only thrown 55 innings due to elbow inflammation, and Anibal Sanchez only three 30 innings before undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum.

Looking to the Future

Just like the offseason before the 2006 season and the 2007 season, the Marlins need to find somebody that can handle center field on a full-time basis. After trying out guys like Reggie Abercrombie in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza this year, they keep resorting to Alfredo Amezaga, who should really be their backup utility guy. I like that they have tried out Cody Ross in center because I think he deserves a shot at a big league job, but I don't think he has the range to handle center everyday.

In addition to center field, the Marlins need to get their young arms healthy again and try to keep their current bullpen from imploding. Relievers always have the most variance in their year-to-year numbers, and it can multiply through the entire pen. (If you don't believe me, just check out the Brewers and Indians over the past several years.) If they can get full seasons from Johnson, Nolasco, and Sanchez next year, the Marlins could bounce back into contention next year. They need to because it won't be long before they no longer have Dontrelle Willis and/or Miguel Cabrera.

Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.

Catcher
*Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

First Base
*Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals

Second Base
*Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Third Base
*Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
David Wright, New York Mets
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Shortstop
*Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves

Outfield
*Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
*Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
*Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

Starting Pitchers
*Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Chris Young, San Diego Padres
John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
John Maine, New York Mets

Relief Pitchers
Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
Billy Wagner, New York Mets

Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule
Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
3B Chipper Jones
SS Hanley Ramirez
SS Edgar Renteria
OF Hunter Pence
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Chris Young
SP Ian Snell
SP Derek Lowe
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Maine

There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.

All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.

Final Vote
Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

Only places where the rankings were changed will be mentioned.

Catchers
Fourth Tier
4. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
*5. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
6. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
*7. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

The 4th and 5th tiers have been combined because there just isn't much of a difference between the four players.

First Basemen
Seventh Tier
*11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
*15. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Thomas is down from the sixth tier, and Gonzalez is up from the eighth tier. Remember that Thomas is not eligible at 1B. It was just the most logical position to list him with.

Eighth Tier
...
*20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
*21. Ryan Shealy, Kansas City Royals

I added Youkilis and Shealy to the end of the list because they're close enough to the rest of the 8th tier.

Second Basemen
Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
*4. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
*6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
*7. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
*8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Moved up nearly the entire 3rd tier (minus Kelly Johnson and Ryan Freel) to join Mr. Kendrick in the 2nd. Also, I found the reason I had Brian Roberts down so far. I had a very low AVG projection for him, which was completely out of line with his recent history. Now he's up closer to the top where you'd expect him.

Third Tier
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
11. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After everyone left, Iguchi joins the outfielders masquerading as 2B. (Actually, Johnson will play second base this year unlike Freel. He just doesn't qualify here until about April 15.) 

Fourth Tier
12. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
13. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
*... 

These two standout from the other guys that were in the fourth tier, so the rest are booted down.

Third Basemen
Third Tier
*9. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Gordon drops out of the second tier to join Chipper in the third. Don't expect to draft Gordon if you're in a competitive league. I saw him go in the 7th round yesterday.

Fourth Tier
*11. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

Rolen also experiences a drop down to the cleared out fourth tier, which means that the remainder of the fourth tier now constitutes the fifth tier.

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.