I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the
first 11 teams (by team name).
Houston Astros –
D
Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke
Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick
I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a
team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline,
and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros
had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were
contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with
a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of
helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among
Astros transactions for some time.
Atlanta Braves –
B-
Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark
Teixeira
This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion.
While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates
that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of
impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either.
While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find
a taker for Mark Kotsay.
Milwaukee Brewers
– A
Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach
Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL
Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve
Hammond
As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for
the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like
the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has
only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune
of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks
has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.
St. Louis Cardinals
– D
While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying
that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great
trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at
their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700
at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t
take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t
able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able
to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.
Chicago Cubs – A
Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean
Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson
Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they
weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a
back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a
shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have
Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as
well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in
the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.
Arizona Diamondbacks
– C
Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension
Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner
Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio
Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with
a $15.5 million option for 2013
Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter
to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the
extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the
$48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance
metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably
project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with
pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already
under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense.
Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and
I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of
getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you
have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not
delay the decision as long as possible?
Los Angeles Dodgers
– I
Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos
Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan
Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche
and RHP Bryan Morris
With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea
why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably
Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the
Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake
acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The
reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes
away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days
a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of
slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and
Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan,
the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36
with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking
more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.
Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers
in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry
Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say
that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In
2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and
he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers
have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four
or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could
have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a
better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo
than Blake and Ramirez.
San Francisco Giants
– C
The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade
away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could
always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August.
Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s
going to be a while before there is.
Florida Marlins –
C+
Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez
While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran
left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s
possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the
catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on
the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.
New York Mets –
D+
Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any
major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando
Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner
outfielder.
Washington Nationals
– D-
Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension
Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch
Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny
Estrada
I already covered
the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into
the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His
two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal.
Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the
Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value
over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?
In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch,
the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of
value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you
scratching your head.
I should have the last five teams up by the end of the
weekend.
If the Yankees win one more game or the Athletics lose one more game, Oakland will be completely eliminated from the playoff race. What's the probability of either one of those two things happening, let alone both? Zero.
The Good
Joe Blanton and Dan Haren have been about as good a 1-2 as can be found in the big leagues. Although Haren has seen his ERA go up for 17 straight starts, that's more a testament to how great he was to start the year than anything else. On June 9th, Haren's ERA was a measly 1.58. Since then, he has posted a 4.23 ERA, which puts him at the 3.11 ERA he has for the season. Their pitching staff can again thank their defense for good support in the field, led by Mark Ellis. Ellis continues to be one of the most underrated second baseman in the game. He doesn't consistently put up good numbers offensively, sitting at .276/.339/.440, but he does a great job in the field.
On the offensive side of things, Nick Swisher continues to be one of the best picks from the Moneyball draft. Several of last year's home runs have turned into doubles this year, but he improved his on-base percentage to .385, demonstrating the disciplined Oakland A approach at the plate. However, his disciplined approach is topped by midseason acquisition Jack Cust, who is currently hitting .257/.401/.510. Observers are quickly turned off by Cust's strikeouts (141 strikeouts in 343 at bats), and that has limited his opportunities to prove himself at the big leagues. Getting his first shot at more than 100 plate appearances in the majors, Cust has proven that he can hit at this level. His horrible defense makes him more of a DH than an outfielder, but Cust is a good example of just another way Billy Beane has been able to find inefficiencies in the player market.
The other positive happened on July 16. Not only did the A's find a taker for Jason Kendall and his .226/.261/.281 line, they got actual talent back in Jerry Blevins and Rob Bowen. In addition, it freed up a spot so that they could find out what they have in Kurt Suzuki, and Suzuki looks to be their long-term solution behind the plate.
The Bad
Injuries hit this team hard, but that shouldn't have been much of a surprise to A's fans. Injuries are one thing that Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, Mark Kotsay, Rich Harden, and Mike Piazza have had in common in their careers. If they can ever keep their talent on the field, the Athletics would have a really good team.
Looking Forward
In terms of talent, the Athletics have what it takes to field a contender. It is all a matter of whether or not they can actually keep their talent on the field. Their trainers have a disadvantage in terms of what they have to work with, but they could be the difference makers for the A's going forward. As far as preparing the roster for next season, Billy Beane and company just need to make sure they have adequate replacements for the sure-fire injuries that will take place.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders