Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote “The Teflon Manager” Sunday about how Dusty Baker is “ill-suited to his personnel.” I couldn’t agree more. As a former Reds’ fan surrounded by actual Reds’ fans, I couldn’t help but laugh when they hired Dusty Baker. The Reds have four of the top 41 prospects in baseball, and all four will see time in the major leagues this year. Baker has a predilection for veterans at the expense of their more talented but unproven challengers. He also has been blamed for the demise of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Neither of these can be good for the development of Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, or Johnny Cueto.

We’ll start with Joey Votto, who is a major subject in this blog and its comments. Baker wants Votto to become more aggressive than the take-and-rake approach that has made him the 21st prospect in baseball. Some people, such as an anonymous posted on the above blog, agree with this philosophy because “I'll take 50 walks and 200 hits over 150 hits and 100 walks any day.” I don’t think you’ll find anyone that disagrees with that statement. The problem is when you take a guy that gets 150 hits and 100 walks and try to turn him into a guy with 200 hits and 50 walks, you’ll probably end up with a guy that gets 160-170 hits and 50-60 walks. I’m not saying that Votto would get 150 hits and 100 walks, but the logic still stands. Dusty, please leave Votto alone. His approach has gotten him this far, and he’ll be better without your “help.”

With the two pitchers Bailey and Cueto, the worry is that Baker hasn’t learned his lesson from Wood and Prior. Only time will tell. As Nate Silver put it, “If the careers of Bailey and Cueto are ruined by high pitch counts, it will be Dusty who pulled the trigger–but the Reds who hired the assassin.”

When it comes to the top prospect in baseball Jay Bruce, Baker is so worried about having a leadoff hitter in the lineup that he’s ignoring the first step in making out a lineup: get the top 8 players out on the field. Jay Bruce split his time over three levels in 2007. He hit .325/.379/.586, .333/.405/.652, and .305/.358/.567 at High-A, AA, and AAA. The Reds kept challenging him by moving him up, and Bruce kept showing that he can hit. The competition in center includes Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel, and Norris Hopper. Patterson has a career OBP of .298, enough said. Freel’s career line is .270/.358/.378, so while he can get on base as well as Bruce, he doesn’t have the power that Bruce has. Hopper was 27 before he made it to the majors in 2006. Last year, Hopper saw significant time in the Reds’ outfield and hit .329/.371/.388; so again, he has the on-base ability of Bruce but not the power. Bruce is ready for the majors, but it won’t be surprising if he ends up back at AAA to start the year. As an example of what he can add to the Reds’ 2008 team, I have used PECOTA’s projections and Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis to estimate the Reds’ projected lineup with Baker’s likely choice in center Patterson and the Reds’ projected lineup with Bruce.

With Patterson:

1. Corey Patterson
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 4.845

With Bruce:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Jeff Keppinger
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Adam Dunn
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Joey Votto
8. David Ross
9. Pitcher

Runs per game: 5.024

They estimate Bruce to add nearly 0.2 runs per game to the Reds’ lineup, or 32.4 runs over 162 games. That’s equivalent to about 3 wins in the standings. I think it’s safe to say that their defensive difference isn’t worth that much.

Dusty Baker’s tendencies don’t fit the current profile of the Cincinnati Reds. Following the Reds’ 2007 season, their hopes for 2008 were high based on their four major league-ready top prospects. With Dusty Baker running the show, Reds’ fans should be worried.