After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)

I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.

Impact Center Fielders to Be Traded

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.

One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp, they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH. With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp as insurance.

Contenders Needing a Center Fielder

Atlanta Braves traded for Mark Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red Sox to trade Crisp.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s center field market won’t be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million to keep around for one more year.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in 2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.

Several players could make their way onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and Josh Hamilton.

Recap

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good 2008s.

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The Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the second time in four years, but this one seems to be more of a Theo Epstein construction than the last one. The transition to becoming a team based on its farm system is underway, and Theo looks to be continuing the Red Sox winning ways for many years to come.

Strengths

Well, for one, they’re the defending champions. Two, unlike their last World Series winner, most of this team is under contract for next year. Third baseman Mike Lowell is the only key player that is a free agent after Curt Schilling signed a one-year $8M deal, which can increase up to $13M if he earns all of the bonuses.

When talking about the Red Sox, the conversation usually starts at the middle of the lineup. When David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have been in the middle of the order for as long as they have, it’s hard not to start there. Both of these players were perceived to have slumped this year, but Ortiz’s “slump” was actually a career year. It might be the first year in four that he didn’t hit 40 home runs, but his OBP climbed up to .445, a huge jump from his previous career high of .413 set last year. Plus, his SLG only fell 15 points from .636 to .621. Hitting 52 doubles makes up for the drop in home runs. Meanwhile, Manny really did slump, having the worst year of his major league career since he had 53 at bats as a 21-year old. When your worst season is .296/.388/.493, you know you’re good. Papi and Manny were given ample opportunities to drive in runners because the Greek God of Walks Kevin Youkilis, and his .390 OBP, was batting in front of them.

PECOTA darling Dustin Pedroia overcame a slow start (.182/.308/.236 in April) to hit .317/.380/.442 and take home the IBA AL Rookie of the Year award. Pedroia wasn’t the only homegrown prospect to make an appearance for the Red Sox. He was joined by Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. Ellsbury started the year on fire at AA, where he hit .452/.518/.644 in 73 at bats, before cooling off at AAA. In 363 at bats in the International League, Ellsbury hit .298/.360/.380. During a September call-up, he again caught fire with a .353/.394/.509 line in 116 major league at bats. He wasn’t the only Red Sox rookie to have a hot start to his major league career as Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz posted ERAs of 1.77, 3.96, and 1.59 in AA (86.2 IP), AAA (38.2 IP), and MLB (22.2 IP). Delcarmen was up to stay in mid-June and proved he belonged with a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief innings. Last but not least, Lester spent the off-season recovering from lymphoma, and after proving his health in AAA Pawtucket, he rejoined the Red Sox rotation in late July and pitched his way to a 4.57 ERA in 63 innings.

Of course, Ortiz, Ramirez, Youkilis, and the youngsters couldn’t have done it without their outstanding pitching staff. Josh Beckett finished second in the IBA voting for AL Cy Young behind C.C. Sabathia, but finishing second for the Cy Young still requires a phenomenal year. Beckett definitely had that with a 3.27 ERA over 200.2 innings. He was backed by Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and the two youngsters Buchholz and Lester. Schilling only threw 151 innings due to an injury and the Red Sox massive lead in the AL East, while Matsuzaka disappointed some in his first big league season. Before you get too down on Matsuzaka, a 4.40 ERA when half of your games are in Fenway Park isn’t a bad thing. He’s my candidate to take a massive step forward a la Beckett this season. All six guys that have already been mentioned will most likely be back in 2008 (unless the Red Sox find some reason to turn down Wakefield’s perpetual $4M team option). Since the Red Sox are well-known for their sabermetric understanding, they will find ways to get all six guys into the mix. The scenario I envision is Wakefield in the pen and spotting in for Lester and Buchholz to keep the innings off their young arms. Of course, any injury to a SP would force the remaining five to take their turns every time through the rotation.

Backing up the rotation in the later innings is a phenomenal bullpen. Led by Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, Terry Francona has it easy when he goes to the bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings. Plus, when you’ve got Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, and whoever gets left out of the rotation, it’s not like the earlier innings are hard to endure.

Concerns

World Series MVP Mike Lowell is a free agent. While much of the talk is about Alex Rodriguez right now, the Red Sox have expressed interest in re-signing Lowell. If Lowell signs elsewhere, talk will surely head to Rodriguez, but don’t forget that Youkilis can play third base, which means they can bring in someone to play either one of the corner infield spots. There aren’t really any good first basemen on the free agent market, but they could always get Ortiz out on the field. Before you think about his “horrific” defense, putting him at first frees up the DH spot for Manny. If you replace LF Ramirez, 3B Lowell, and 1B Youkilis with LF Coco Crisp/Ellsbury, 3B Youkilis, and 1B Ortiz, do you really lose anything on defense? Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics suggest that you actually gain defense with this arrangement, and whatever you lose on offense is okay because the Red Sox would still be the best team in the AL East and a good bet to return to the postseason.

Last offseason, Julio Lugo was brought in to provide good offense and defense from the shortstop spot? He provided neither. With $27M and three years left on the deal, he’s not exactly easily dealt either. The Red Sox best decision would be to give him another shot next year and hope he can prove his worth over the first half of the year. Regardless of his first half performance, their midseason decision would be based on Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie can continue his hot hitting (.298/.393/.503 split between AA and AAA) next year, he’ll be an easy choice to replace Lugo. If Lugo performs poorly, it’s time to cut bait and replace him with Lowrie. If Lugo performs well, it’s time to trade him and replace him with Lowrie.

Overall

After a World Series championship, it’s easy to expect the Red Sox to put forth a valiant effort to repeat. While they’re expected to make it back to the postseason, everyone knows that the postseason is a crapshoot so it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have the decision of whether or not to bring back Mike Lowell as a luxury item (they don’t need him) and how to handle their shortstop situation. Next offseason will be more interesting with Manny’s and Jason Varitek’s contracts expiring. In the meantime, Red Sox fans, enjoy your championship and I’ll expect to see you again next postseason.